Tonight's episode is titled "The Thorn in My Thumb." Two people are going home tonight in two separate TCs!

--
Brian

On Wednesday, November 8, 2023 at 6:02:03 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
> Tonight's episode is titled "The Thorn in My Thumb." Two people are going home tonight in two separate TCs!
>
> --
> Brian

Tonight's episode was a great example of how stupid twists ruin games and possibly the season. When they arrived at the IC site, they were informed by Jeff that they would be randomly split into two groups and that there would be two Immunity winners and two separate TCs. The challenge was the classic pole one where they have to hold on longer than anyone else. Jeff said the person who lasts the longest on their pole from each tribe would win immunity and the person who lasts longest overall would win a trip to the Sanctuary for their group. They would also go to TC second. To make this twist even worse he then said the person voted out from the losing group would not make jury. So much for spending a ton of time building relationships. This tweet from Victoria during the show sums things up nicely.

"Nooooo not another completely arbitrary split negating all of the work you've done to make relationships at the merge ugh what's even the point of having alliances #survivor"

https://twitter.com/veebaamonde/status/1722424710477021313

The challenge didn't last long. We're they using thicker poles? Emily was done in what seemed like 10 seconds. The two immunity winners were Dee and Kellie with Dee being the overall winner. Dee was the only person who looked like she could have gone a long time. Dee's group included Katurah, Julie, Jake, Austin, and Kaleb. When the challenge was over, Jeff told Emily's tribe they would be going to the old Lulu camp to which she replied, "Don't send me back there!"

I found the mixed-up groups and going back and forth between them hard to follow at times. Emily's group surprisingly never talked about targeting her or at least not serious enough to make the edit. Kendra pushed to take out Bruce and Kellie pushed back on that and targeted Sifu. Kellie is getting very frustrated with Bruce and might have to take him out soon for her own sanity. One other thing worth noting with this group is that Drew told Emily that he didn't bring his bag to the IC and thus can't play his Safety without Power (?) advantage.

Things were more interesting with Kaleb's group. Kaleb convinced Jake that they need to tell Katurah that Bruce has an idol. I was surprised that they still hadn't told her. Kaleb told her first and then Jake. She was clearly not happy that they had kept this info from her. Their goal was to get her to vote with them to try and take out Julie. They said if it's a tie that Austin would be afraid to go to rocks.

Tribal Council 1 (Emily's group)

Kellie must have convinced Kendra to keep Bruce for now because Sifu was voted out 5–1. Sifu voted to boot Bruce.

Tribal Council 2 (Kaleb's group)

Not telling Katurah about Bruce's idol right away was a fatal mistake for Jake and Kaleb. Kaleb was voted out 4–2 as Katurah voted to boot him.. Kaleb makes jury but without the stupid twist I think he would have gone a lot further in the game.

Next Episode

The Survivor Auction is back! It'll be interesting to see Emily's reaction when she finds out Kaleb is gone.

--
Brian

On Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 12:03:55 AM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
> On Wednesday, November 8, 2023 at 6:02:03 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
> > Tonight's episode is titled "The Thorn in My Thumb." Two people are going home tonight in two separate TCs!
> >
> > --
> > Brian
> Tonight's episode was a great example of how stupid twists ruin games and possibly the season. When they arrived at the IC site, they were informed by Jeff that they would be randomly split into two groups and that there would be two Immunity winners and two separate TCs. The challenge was the classic pole one where they have to hold on longer than anyone else. Jeff said the person who lasts the longest on their pole from each tribe would win immunity and the person who lasts longest overall would win a trip to the Sanctuary for their group. They would also go to TC second. To make this twist even worse he then said the person voted out from the losing group would not make jury. So much for spending a ton of time building relationships. This tweet from Victoria during the show sums things up nicely.
>
> "Nooooo not another completely arbitrary split negating all of the work you've done to make relationships at the merge ugh what's even the point of having alliances #survivor"
>
> https://twitter.com/veebaamonde/status/1722424710477021313
>
> The challenge didn't last long. We're they using thicker poles? Emily was done in what seemed like 10 seconds. The two immunity winners were Dee and Kellie with Dee being the overall winner. Dee was the only person who looked like she could have gone a long time. Dee's group included Katurah, Julie, Jake, Austin, and Kaleb. When the challenge was over, Jeff told Emily's tribe they would be going to the old Lulu camp to which she replied, "Don't send me back there!"
>
> I found the mixed-up groups and going back and forth between them hard to follow at times. Emily's group surprisingly never talked about targeting her or at least not serious enough to make the edit. Kendra pushed to take out Bruce and Kellie pushed back on that and targeted Sifu. Kellie is getting very frustrated with Bruce and might have to take him out soon for her own sanity. One other thing worth noting with this group is that Drew told Emily that he didn't bring his bag to the IC and thus can't play his Safety without Power (?) advantage.
>
> Things were more interesting with Kaleb's group. Kaleb convinced Jake that they need to tell Katurah that Bruce has an idol. I was surprised that they still hadn't told her. Kaleb told her first and then Jake. She was clearly not happy that they had kept this info from her. Their goal was to get her to vote with them to try and take out Julie. They said if it's a tie that Austin would be afraid to go to rocks.
>
> Tribal Council 1 (Emily's group)
>
> Kellie must have convinced Kendra to keep Bruce for now because Sifu was voted out 5–1. Sifu voted to boot Bruce.
>
> Tribal Council 2 (Kaleb's group)
>
> Not telling Katurah about Bruce's idol right away was a fatal mistake for Jake and Kaleb. Kaleb was voted out 4–2 as Katurah voted to boot him. Kaleb makes jury but without the stupid twist I think he would have gone a lot further in the game.
>
> Next Episode
>
> The Survivor Auction is back! It'll be interesting to see Emily's reaction when she finds out Kaleb is gone.
>
> --
> Brian

Forgot to mention that weird flash-forward scene. What was the logic behind doing that? Hopefully they never do that again.

--
Brian

On Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 12:03:55 AM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
> On Wednesday, November 8, 2023 at 6:02:03 PM UTC-7, Brian Smith wrote:
> > Tonight's episode is titled "The Thorn in My Thumb." Two people are going home tonight in two separate TCs!
> >
> > --
> > Brian

> > I found the mixed-up groups and going back and forth between them hard to follow at times. Emily's group surprisingly never talked about targeting her or at least not serious enough to make the edit. Kendra pushed to take out Bruce and Kellie pushed back on that and targeted Sifu. Kellie is getting very frustrated with Bruce and might have to take him out soon for her own sanity. One other thing worth noting with this group is that Drew told Emily that he didn't bring his bag to the IC and thus can't play his Safety without Power (?) advantage.

Concerning Drew leaving his bag back at camp, Dalton has a fun fact for us.

"#Survivor fun fact!

The last episode of S44 that the current cast watched before leaving for Fiji was the Josh elimination. Had they seen 1 more, it would have been when Matt left his bag back at camp… meaning Drew then likely would not have left his."

https://twitter.com/DaltonRoss/status/1722429640269045810

--
Brian

On Wednesday, November 8, 2023 at 11:03:55 PM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:

> Tonight's episode was a great example of how stupid twists ruin games and possibly the season.
> Dee was the only person who looked like she could have gone a long time.

As soon as I saw the challenge poles, I thought of Dee's freakishly large toes and picked her to win.

> Emily's group surprisingly never talked about targeting her or at least not serious enough to make the edit.

I think Emily is "safe has houses" for the foreseeable future. From what we have been shown, she is playing the role
of the reliable vote who is a threat to no one. Going into E08, the former Blue Tribe has a one player advantage over
the former Red Tribe, and, IMO, will try to use Emily and the "wayward" Jake's votes to widen that numerical difference.

> Not telling Katurah about Bruce's idol right away was a fatal mistake for Jake and Kaleb. Kaleb was voted out 4–2 as Katurah voted to boot him.

We don't yet know exactly why Katurah voted for Kaleb. But you're right about the edit implying that it was due to her feeling left out of the loop
regarding Bruce and his immunity trinket. However, her vote may have actually been based on her perception of the risk/reward balance of trying to
force a tie followed by a rock pull bluff. Given that she would have become one of the players required to pull a rock, I can understand why she
she was not interested in going down such a road.

>Kaleb makes jury but without the stupid twist I think he would have gone a lot further in the game.

Without the stupid twist used at the E06 TC, Kaleb would have left the game one day earlier. I was pleased to see him booted last night as such a result clearly
reflected the preference of the vast majority of the players left in the game. It's just too bad that two tribal councils were required to get it done.

On Wednesday, November 8, 2023 at 11:49:14 PM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:

> Forgot to mention that weird flash-forward scene. What was the logic behind doing that? Hopefully they never do that again.

According to Dalton Ross, Probst loved it, and suggested that more of the same may be in store for future episodes/seasons.

On Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 1:34:17 PM UTC-7, zeppo wrote:
> On Wednesday, November 8, 2023 at 11:49:14 PM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:
>
> > Forgot to mention that weird flash-forward scene. What was the logic behind doing that? Hopefully they never do that again.
> According to Dalton Ross, Probst loved it, and suggested that more of the same may be in store for future episodes/seasons.

The reaction on social media has been overwhelmingly negative to this type of editing style. That scene foreshadowed a bit too much that Kaleb would be getting the boot. Jeff's out of touch as usual on this one.

--
Brian

On Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 1:24:02 PM UTC-7, zeppo wrote:
> On Wednesday, November 8, 2023 at 11:03:55 PM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:
>
> > Tonight's episode was a great example of how stupid twists ruin games and possibly the season.
> > Dee was the only person who looked like she could have gone a long time..
> As soon as I saw the challenge poles, I thought of Dee's freakishly large toes and picked her to win.

I had no idea who would win but I was expecting the challenge to last a lot longer. I wasn't surprised at all that Kellie did well. I thought Julie would do a lot better than she did.

> > Emily's group surprisingly never talked about targeting her or at least not serious enough to make the edit.
> I think Emily is "safe has houses" for the foreseeable future. From what we have been shown, she is playing the role
> of the reliable vote who is a threat to no one. Going into E08, the former Blue Tribe has a one player advantage over
> the former Red Tribe, and, IMO, will try to use Emily and the "wayward" Jake's votes to widen that numerical difference.

I thought Emily would be seen as an easy person to take out but she must be doing a great job of selling herself as reliable and trustworthy. I still don't get why Sifu was seen as such a huge threat. Is it because of his size? I had to laugh at Kellie's "Seafou" vote. She's been having fun with that on X.

> > Not telling Katurah about Bruce's idol right away was a fatal mistake for Jake and Kaleb. Kaleb was voted out 4–2 as Katurah voted to boot him.
> We don't yet know exactly why Katurah voted for Kaleb. But you're right about the edit implying that it was due to her feeling left out of the loop
> regarding Bruce and his immunity trinket. However, her vote may have actually been based on her perception of the risk/reward balance of trying to
> force a tie followed by a rock pull bluff. Given that she would have become one of the players required to pull a rock, I can understand why she
> she was not interested in going down such a road.

There was that short confessional where she said was considering voting with the other side even though she doesn't really know Dee and Julie. When Jake told her that Bruce has an idol she said something like "So you didn't really lose your rings, and EVERYBODY was helping to find the idol?" To me it seemed that she felt that Jake and Kaleb were not tight with her and that they just wanted to use her to take out Julie.
 
> >Kaleb makes jury but without the stupid twist I think he would have gone a lot further in the game.
> Without the stupid twist used at the E06 TC, Kaleb would have left the game one day earlier. I was pleased to see him booted last night as such a result clearly
> reflected the preference of the vast majority of the players left in the game. It's just too bad that two tribal councils were required to get it done.

I consider the SITD to be different because it's fairer to all players. Everyone gets one, you can decide when to play it, and you're not forced to use it. The alliances you've built also don't get impacted so as long as you're not second from the bottom you should be safe. The random creation of two groups can render the alliances you've built useless if you end up with a bad draw. Having mere hours to campaign to try and save yourself is also bullshit. In a normal situation, I think Kaleb would have been able to work something out such as convincing the others to blindside Bruce. Not telling Katurah about Bruce's idol was probably what really killed him.

--
Brian

On Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 4:03:44 PM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:

> I thought Emily would be seen as an easy person to take out but she must be doing a great job of selling herself as reliable and trustworthy.

At this point, she is too valuable a vote to be targeted by either tribe..

> I still don't get why Sifu was seen as such a huge threat. Is it because of his size?

I call it the "Gabler Effect". The last complete season that this cast would have seen was S43, the ending of which appears to have had a
significant impact on their view of UTR players. Kellie explained it well by referring to Seafood as a "huge wild card", and then making the comment
that "sometimes wild cards can make it through the game and win". Just like Gabler did.

> There was that short confessional where she said was considering voting with the other side even though she doesn't really know Dee and Julie. When Jake told her that Bruce has an idol she said something >like "So you didn't really lose your rings, and EVERYBODY was helping to find the idol?" To me it seemed that she felt that Jake and Kaleb were not tight with her and that they just wanted to use her to take out >Julie.

Yes, her emotional reaction to being left out of the loop had a significant impact on her decision making at the E07 TC. However, she conveniently forgot
about all the time that Kaleb had put into trying to build a real relationship with her after the first shuffle.

> I consider the SITD to be different because it's fairer to all players. Everyone gets one, you can decide when to play it, and you're not forced to use it.

I hate the SITD because it reduces a player's fate at TC to a game of chance, like a coin flip. Kaleb did not deserve to survive the E06 TC, but yet
Probst's gimmick vetoed the votes of 11 players, and victimized poor J. in the process. It stunk, and I wasn't able to put it to rest until the error was
corrected in E07.

> In a normal situation, I think Kaleb would have been able to work something out such as convincing the others to blindside Bruce.

No. He was a "dead man walking" who had been given an undeserved reprieve in E06. Even if all 12 players had gone to TC together, Kaleb
wouldn't have survived the vote.

On Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 8:55:48 PM UTC-7, zeppo wrote:
> On Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 4:03:44 PM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:
>
> > I thought Emily would be seen as an easy person to take out but she must be doing a great job of selling herself as reliable and trustworthy.
> At this point, she is too valuable a vote to be targeted by either tribe.

And after they all find out that Kaeb is gone her threat level will be even lower. She needs to use this time to strengthen her relationship with Austin and Drew and build new ones.

> > I still don't get why Sifu was seen as such a huge threat. Is it because of his size?
> I call it the "Gabler Effect". The last complete season that this cast would have seen was S43, the ending of which appears to have had a
> significant impact on their view of UTR players. Kellie explained it well by referring to Seafood as a "huge wild card", and then making the comment
> that "sometimes wild cards can make it through the game and win". Just like Gabler did.

That and a bitter as fuck jury. So far with this group, I see Katurah and Austin as being potential bitter jurors.

> > There was that short confessional where she said was considering voting with the other side even though she doesn't really know Dee and Julie. When Jake told her that Bruce has an idol she said something >like "So you didn't really lose your rings, and EVERYBODY was helping to find the idol?" To me it seemed that she felt that Jake and Kaleb were not tight with her and that they just wanted to use her to take out >Julie.
> Yes, her emotional reaction to being left out of the loop had a significant impact on her decision making at the E07 TC. However, she conveniently forgot
> about all the time that Kaleb had put into trying to build a real relationship with her after the first shuffle.

I don't think she forgot. She probably feels that a real relationship would entail telling her something that important. The others helping Bruce find that idol probably didn't sit well with her either.

> > I consider the SITD to be different because it's fairer to all players. Everyone gets one, you can decide when to play it, and you're not forced to use it.
> I hate the SITD because it reduces a player's fate at TC to a game of chance, like a coin flip. Kaleb did not deserve to survive the E06 TC, but yet
> Probst's gimmick vetoed the votes of 11 players, and victimized poor J. in the process. It stunk, and I wasn't able to put it to rest until the error was
> corrected in E07.

I'm all in favor to get rid of SITD but I would want these random groupings that happen after the merge to stop first. This crap along with the million advantages floating around just make it a lot easier for production to manipulate the game.

> > In a normal situation, I think Kaleb would have been able to work something out such as convincing the others to blindside Bruce.
> No. He was a "dead man walking" who had been given an undeserved reprieve in E06. Even if all 12 players had gone to TC together, Kaleb
> wouldn't have survived the vote.

Assuming Austin didn't vote, Kaleb would need six votes to stay. If he was around the push to blindside Bruce would have had a lot more traction. He could have joined Kendra, Kellie, and Emily to vote out Bruce. I think he would have easily been able to get Katurah and Jake. Without the two group twist I doubt he and Jake would have told Katurah about Bruce's idol. Kendra would have. As long as Bruce didn't get suspicious, I think Kaleb would have survived.

--
Brian

On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 4:31:45 PM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:

> That and a bitter as fuck jury. So far with this group, I see Katurah and Austin as being potential bitter jurors.

I agree, and would add Dee to that list.

> I don't think she forgot. She probably feels that a real relationship would entail telling her something that important.

To be fair to Kaleb, when he was working so hard to develop a relationship with Katurah, Bruce's idol find was two episodes into the future.
Bruce found the idol on Day 12, and Kaleb told Katurah about it on Day 14 (the day after she had voted for him). I wonder if she would have
changed her vote if Kaleb had told her before TC on Day 13?

> I'm all in favour to get rid of SITD but I would want these random groupings that happen after the merge to stop first.

That works for me! However, I don't see a Survivor future that does not include the SITD or tribal shuffles.

> Assuming Austin didn't vote, Kaleb would need six votes to stay. If he was around the push to blindside Bruce would have had a lot more traction. He could have joined Kendra, Kellie, and Emily to vote out >Bruce. I think he would have easily been able to get Katurah and Jake. Without the two group twist I doubt he and Jake would have told Katurah about Bruce's idol. Kendra would have. As long as Bruce didn't >get suspicious, I think Kaleb would have survived.

Austin voted in E07 as his immunity item had already reached full power. So if all twelve players had attended, and voted at, the E07 TC, this is how I see
it breaking down:

For Kaleb: For Bruce: Not Sure:
-Austin -Jake -Emily
-Bruce -Katurah
-Dee -Kendra
-Drew -Kaleb
-Julie
-Kellie
-Seafood

Even if I put Emily into the Bruce column, Kaleb still gets sent to Ponderosa 7-5.

On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 5:54:54 PM UTC-8, zeppo wrote:

For Kaleb:
-Austin
-Bruce
-Dee
-Drew
-Julie
-Kellie
-Seafood

For Bruce:
-Jake
-Katurah
-Kendra
-Kaleb

Unknown:
-Emily

Even if I put Emily into the Bruce column, Kaleb still gets sent to Ponderosa 7-5.

On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 7:02:08 PM UTC-7, zeppo wrote:
> On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 5:54:54 PM UTC-8, zeppo wrote:
>
> For Kaleb:
> -Austin
> -Bruce
> -Dee
> -Drew
> -Julie
> -Kellie
> -Seafood
>
> For Bruce:
> -Jake
> -Katurah
> -Kendra
> -Kaleb
>
> Unknown:
> -Emily
> Even if I put Emily into the Bruce column, Kaleb still gets sent to Ponderosa 7-5.

Emily would not vote out her number one ally under this scenario. Kellie would take the chance to get out Bruce. She's pretty well stated he's too much for her to handle mentally. IIRC, Drew as also expressed wanting to get rid of Bruce. Flushing an idol would also come into play. Bruce would go in a revote if not a 7–5 vote.

--
Brian

On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 6:54:54 PM UTC-7, zeppo wrote:
> On Friday, November 10, 2023 at 4:31:45 PM UTC-8, Brian Smith wrote:
>
> > That and a bitter as fuck jury. So far with this group, I see Katurah and Austin as being potential bitter jurors.
> I agree, and would add Dee to that list.

Yeah, she'll definitely be bitter.

> > I don't think she forgot. She probably feels that a real relationship would entail telling her something that important.
> To be fair to Kaleb, when he was working so hard to develop a relationship with Katurah, Bruce's idol find was two episodes into the future.
> Bruce found the idol on Day 12, and Kaleb told Katurah about it on Day 14 (the day after she had voted for him). I wonder if she would have
> changed her vote if Kaleb had told her before TC on Day 13?

Damn, are they doing one day cycles now? IIRC, Bruce found the clue the morning after Brando was blindsided. If things are moving that fast Kaleb should have told her about the idol the first chance he got.
> > I'm all in favor to get rid of SITD but I would want these random groupings that happen after the merge to stop first.
>
> That works for me! However, I don't see a Survivor future that does not include the SITD or tribal shuffles.

You're right. Jeff doesn't listen to feedback unless it comes from a celebrity or someone higher up the ladder than him.

> > Assuming Austin didn't vote, Kaleb would need six votes to stay. If he was around the push to blindside Bruce would have had a lot more traction. He could have joined Kendra, Kellie, and Emily to vote out >Bruce. I think he would have easily been able to get Katurah and Jake. Without the two group twist I doubt he and Jake would have told Katurah about Bruce's idol. Kendra would have. As long as Bruce didn't >get suspicious, I think Kaleb would have survived.
> Austin voted in E07 as his immunity item had already reached full power. So if all twelve players had attended, and voted at, the E07 TC, this is how I see
> it breaking down:
>
> For Kaleb: For Bruce: Not Sure:
> -Austin -Jake -Emily
> -Bruce -Katurah
> -Dee -Kendra
> -Drew -Kaleb
> -Julie
> -Kellie
> -Seafood
>
> Even if I put Emily into the Bruce column, Kaleb still gets sent to Ponderosa 7-5.

See my response to your follow-up post.

--
Brian

zeppo wrote:

> Without the stupid twist used at the E06 TC [...]

Yeah, I also don't like it. It isn't exciting (no treasure
hunt or anything) and introduces randomness to the game for no
apparent reason or benefit what I can see.

This season has been a bit lame this far, but I think it will
pick up now when the endgame begins.

I don't dislike any of the player but don't really care for
anyone either, again I hope that will change when the
game intensifies.

--
underground experts united
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