The Horny Goat wrote:

>> Australian Survivor (and, more recently, Survivor UK) likes
>> to do the classic challenge from US Survivor 1 (Borneo)
>> where you have three people with their hand on a statue and
>> it's strictly longevity, who can keep their hand on the
>> statue the longest. Whether that's more exciting than three
>> guys making fire is a matter of opinion, but I don't think
>> either represents luck. One measures fire-making skills and
>> the other the raw determination and physical stamina to
>> keep your hand on an idol for several hours. Either works
>> for me.
>
> UK Survivor 1 + 2 had the pole standing challenge - one
> lasted for 23 1/2 the other 24 1/2 hours.
>
> One can readily see why production hated it though they got
> some VERY good shots of those who had 'fallen' early
> arriving back at dawn (with lots of fruit from breakfast)
> and being staggered the remaining 3 were both going strong.
>
> Survivor South Africa (season 1 or 2 can't remember) had an
> extremely muscular black fellow with superb social skills
> who everyone thought would win but he momentarily blacked
> out on the F4 challenge and since the challenge was also F3
> (e.g. first off was automatically gone while the winner of
> F3 chose who went with him/her to F2. Given how this fellow
> had dominated post merge play it was a truly dramatic moment
> when he fell.

Yeah, as a nod, we had it in Swedish Survivor as well, before
anyone else :)

But here I am unsure - doing such a thing with no water, no
food, no sleep, and the overall very stressful situation that
is Survivor, and the state in which you are in mentally and
physically at the very end of the game - I don't know if
that's a good idea.

I'm not a medical professional or anything but to me it
strikes me as too dangerous?

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

On Thursday, December 28, 2023 at 10:47:35 AM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
> "Emanuel Berg" wrote in message news:87jzoys...@dataswamp.org...
> >
> >Rick wrote:
> >
> >> I agree that an F2 is much better than an F3, and I would
> >> love to see the show return to it.
> >
> >Yes.
> >
> >> As I said in another post, the original perceived problem
> >> with F2 is that the winner of F3 immunity got to make
> >> a unilateral decision on who would go to the finals.
> >> This put a lot of power in the hands of one person who was
> >> often a marginal or under-the radar player who just got
> >> lucky in the F3 challenge.
> >
> >Well, the F3 challenge should be designed so you cannot win it
> >by getting lucky.
> >
> Well a purist might say that nothing is more fair than having to build fire
> where everyone has the exact same raw materials to start.

Seat location seems to be factor at times as the direction of the wind can impact one player more than the other. This happened to Katurah at the start of fire this season.

> >> They tried to solve this by replacing the F2 with an F3, but
> >> maybe a better solution would be to eliminate the F3 vote
> >> and go to a system where the top two finishers in the F3
> >> immunity challenge go to the final two and the person who
> >> comes in last in the challenge gets eliminated. This could
> >> even be a fire-making challenge where all three players have
> >> to make fire and only the top two finishers go to
> >> the finals.
> >
> >I agree that would be better at F3 but I think the challenge
> >should be more exciting than just 3 guys making fire.
> >
> Australian Survivor (and, more recently, Survivor UK) likes to do the
> classic challenge from US Survivor 1 (Borneo) where you have three people
> with their hand on a statue and it's strictly longevity, who can keep their
> hand on the statue the longest. Whether that's more exciting than three
> guys making fire is a matter of opinion, but I don't think either represents
> luck. One measures fire-making skills and the other the raw determination
> and physical stamina to keep your hand on an idol for several hours. Either
> works for me.

I'll take fire any day over keeping your hand on a statue. At least being able to start a fire is game-related.

--
Brian

"Emanuel Berg" wrote in message news:87y1deqjec.fsf@dataswamp.org...
>
>Rick wrote:
>
>>>> They tried to solve this by replacing the F2 with an F3,
>>>> but maybe a better solution would be to eliminate the F3
>>>> vote and go to a system where the top two finishers in the
>>>> F3 immunity challenge go to the final two and the person
>>>> who comes in last in the challenge gets eliminated.
>>>> This could even be a fire-making challenge where all three
>>>> players have to make fire and only the top two finishers
>>>> go to the finals.
>>>
>>> I agree that would be better at F3 but I think the
>>> challenge should be more exciting than just 3 guys
>>> making fire.
>>
>> Australian Survivor (and, more recently, Survivor UK) likes
>> to do the classic challenge from US Survivor 1 (Borneo)
>> where you have three people with their hand on a statue and
>> it's strictly longevity, who can keep their hand on the
>> statue the longest. Whether that's more exciting than three
>> guys making fire is a matter of opinion, but I don't think
>> either represents luck. One measures fire-making skills and
>> the other the raw determination and physical stamina to keep
>> your hand on an idol for several hours. Either works for me.
>
>Agreed!
>
>In an ideal world, luck should be completely removed from the
>game. This isn't hard to do either, as all such instances can
>be solved by challenges. If there is no time or imagination to
>do a proper Survivor-style, well-thought and original one, one
>can always resort to a fire or something up that alley.
>That would always be OK IMO.
>
>Also, two players at FTC is also more dramatic, more of
>a duel, than three players. It doesn't have to be close every
>season, but it should also not be "hero vs goat" too much.
>
>But as we have seen, three players at FTC and the fire-making
>twist has not solved the one-sided problem, so the studio
>should once again try to come up with modifications to make
>the game more fair (less luck) and more exciting (less
>one-sided FTCs).
>
>I think the fire making contest at F4 is _perceived_ as making
>the FTC more exciting as there are two "strong" ways to enter
>it. Either winning the immunity challenge, _or_ making the
>fire. So this is probably not a bad idea, even tho the stats
>at this point won't support the notion that FTCs have become
>more close because of it.
>
>We also saw it in the "Survivor Capitalism" season that some
>dude won the challenge, but also took upon himself to do the
>fire challenge - and won the game. I.e., a super^2 way to FTC
>for him. Din anyone else do that? If so, how did that go?
>
>And, what are the stats now, is it better to make fire at F4
>and win, or is it better to win immunity and make it to FTC
>that way, i.e. without making the fire?
>
>I now recall, it was you who compiled stats for this a couple
>of seasons back, right? Do you still have the file? If not, it
>should be in the archives for this group, alt.tv.survivor.
>

OK, here are the stats on the F4 Fire-making challenge, which has been in
place since S35 (11 seasons). Essentially, there are seven possible
outcomes:

Case 1: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4 winner goes to
finale and wins
Case 2: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4 winner goes to
finale and comes in second
Case 3: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4 winner goes to
finale and comes in third
Case 4: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire challenge - goes
to finale and wins
Case 5: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire challenge - goes
to finale and comes in second
Case 6: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire challenge - goes
to finale and comes in third
Case 7: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and loses fire challenge - does
not go to finale

Here are the results:

Case 1: Has only happened twice: Nick (S37) and Dee (S45)
Case 2: Has happened four times: Chrissy (S35), Domenick (S36), Natalie
(S40), Cassidy (S43)
Case 3: Has happened three times: Noura (S39), Xander (S41) and Romeo
(S42)
Case 4: Has famously only happened once: Chris (S38)
Case 5: Has also only happened once: Heidi (S44)
Case 6: Has never happened
Case 7: Has never happened

Not sure we really have a big enough sample to draw any conclusions, but
maybe the most interesting result is that seven times out of the eleven
seasons (nearly 70% of the time), the F4 winner chooses two other players to
make fire and then ends up not winning the game. It's also interesting that
aside from Chris, who won S38, Heidi is the only other player to take
themselves into the fire-making challenge (and she, of course, did not win
the game).

And of course the fact that only three of the F4 winners ended up winning
the game (Nick, Chris and Dee), that means in eight out of the eleven
seasons, the winner of the game did not win the F4 challenge. For the
record, those non-F4-winner game winners are: Ben, Wendell, Tommy, Tony,
Erika, Maryanne, Gabler and Yam Yam.

Let the conclusion-drawing begin...

--

Brian Smith wrote:

>>> Well, the F3 challenge should be designed so you cannot
>>> win it by getting lucky.
>>
>> Well a purist might say that nothing is more fair than
>> having to build fire where everyone has the exact same raw
>> materials to start.
>
> Seat location seems to be factor at times as the direction
> of the wind can impact one player more than the other.
> This happened to Katurah at the start of fire this season.

One can think of several ways to deal with that.

1. Build a little booth to take away the wind. (Ikr? Overkill.
And what happens if they put the whole booth on fire?)

X. Put the players in an open field at a certain distance from
each other, so one player cannot block the wind from
hitting the other. (Should be enough.)

2. Compute who played the best Survivor game up until that
point based on some metric - say the number of challenges
won - that player gets to choose fire-making station first,
and so on. (Only that process shouldn't be shown on TV
since it is a formality.)

Note that the wind, and sometimes temperature and other such
factors of nature, are indeed factors in some professional and
Olympic sports. They have methods and rules to deal with it.
No one is complaining they lost because of the wind. (That
happens in Survivor.)

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

Rick wrote:

> OK, here are the stats on the F4 Fire-making challenge,
> which has been in place since S35 (11 seasons). Essentially,
> there are seven possible outcomes:
>
> Case 1: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4
> winner goes to finale and wins
> Case 2: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4
> winner goes to finale and comes in second
> Case 3: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4
> winner goes to finale and comes in third
> Case 4: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire
> challenge - goes to finale and wins
> Case 5: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire
> challenge - goes to finale and comes in second
> Case 6: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire
> challenge - goes to finale and comes in third
> Case 7: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and loses fire
> challenge - does not go to finale
>
> Here are the results:
>
> Case 1: Has only happened twice: Nick (S37) and Dee (S45)
> Case 2: Has happened four times: Chrissy (S35), Domenick
> (S36), Natalie (S40), Cassidy (S43)
> Case 3: Has happened three times: Noura (S39), Xander (S41)
> and Romeo (S42)
> Case 4: Has famously only happened once: Chris (S38)
> Case 5: Has also only happened once: Heidi (S44)
> Case 6: Has never happened
> Case 7: Has never happened

Thanks, king!

> Not sure we really have a big enough sample to draw any
> conclusions, but maybe the most interesting result is that
> seven times out of the eleven seasons (nearly 70% of the
> time), the F4 winner chooses two other players to make fire
> and then ends up not winning the game. It's also interesting
> that aside from Chris, who won S38, Heidi is the only other
> player to take themselves into the fire-making challenge
> (and she, of course, did not win the game).
>
> And of course the fact that only three of the F4 winners
> ended up winning the game (Nick, Chris and Dee), that means
> in eight out of the eleven seasons, the winner of the game
> did not win the F4 challenge. For the record, those
> non-F4-winner game winners are: Ben, Wendell, Tommy, Tony,
> Erika, Maryanne, Gabler and Yam Yam.
>
> Let the conclusion-drawing begin...

Those stats are all over the place by just by intuition after
reading what you said, I'd say the conclusion can be, every
Survivor player who plays to win should practice making fires
every day at home, and with as close a kit as possible, from
the day they get the message they will play.

After winning F4, if that's what happens, one should only go
directly to FTC if one is _very confident_ one has an edge
over every other player still in the game.

If there is some sort of threat just below, don't let him or
her shine winning the fire in front of the jury. Instead,
bring him or her instantly to the FTC, then pick the worst
fire-maker and beat him or her convincingly yourself.

[ There is also the possibility to bring the perceived #2
threat (assuming you are #1 after winning F4 immunity)
directly to FTC to not let him/her shine - and let #3 and #4
do the fire since they are hopeless anyway. And maybe this
is what Dee did this season! ]

The allure of doing the fire yourself after winning F4 is - is
you win it, and still don't win the game, hey, what more could
you have done? - and if you loose you loose on your own terms
which is probably more easy to handle mentally even tho
you lost.

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

On Thursday, December 28, 2023 at 5:29:16 PM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
> "Emanuel Berg" wrote in message news:87y1deq...@dataswamp.org...
> >
> >Rick wrote:
> >
> >>>> They tried to solve this by replacing the F2 with an F3,
> >>>> but maybe a better solution would be to eliminate the F3
> >>>> vote and go to a system where the top two finishers in the
> >>>> F3 immunity challenge go to the final two and the person
> >>>> who comes in last in the challenge gets eliminated.
> >>>> This could even be a fire-making challenge where all three
> >>>> players have to make fire and only the top two finishers
> >>>> go to the finals.
> >>>
> >>> I agree that would be better at F3 but I think the
> >>> challenge should be more exciting than just 3 guys
> >>> making fire.
> >>
> >> Australian Survivor (and, more recently, Survivor UK) likes
> >> to do the classic challenge from US Survivor 1 (Borneo)
> >> where you have three people with their hand on a statue and
> >> it's strictly longevity, who can keep their hand on the
> >> statue the longest. Whether that's more exciting than three
> >> guys making fire is a matter of opinion, but I don't think
> >> either represents luck. One measures fire-making skills and
> >> the other the raw determination and physical stamina to keep
> >> your hand on an idol for several hours. Either works for me.
> >
> >Agreed!
> >
> >In an ideal world, luck should be completely removed from the
> >game. This isn't hard to do either, as all such instances can
> >be solved by challenges. If there is no time or imagination to
> >do a proper Survivor-style, well-thought and original one, one
> >can always resort to a fire or something up that alley.
> >That would always be OK IMO.
> >
> >Also, two players at FTC is also more dramatic, more of
> >a duel, than three players. It doesn't have to be close every
> >season, but it should also not be "hero vs goat" too much.
> >
> >But as we have seen, three players at FTC and the fire-making
> >twist has not solved the one-sided problem, so the studio
> >should once again try to come up with modifications to make
> >the game more fair (less luck) and more exciting (less
> >one-sided FTCs).
> >
> >I think the fire making contest at F4 is _perceived_ as making
> >the FTC more exciting as there are two "strong" ways to enter
> >it. Either winning the immunity challenge, _or_ making the
> >fire. So this is probably not a bad idea, even tho the stats
> >at this point won't support the notion that FTCs have become
> >more close because of it.
> >
> >We also saw it in the "Survivor Capitalism" season that some
> >dude won the challenge, but also took upon himself to do the
> >fire challenge - and won the game. I.e., a super^2 way to FTC
> >for him. Din anyone else do that? If so, how did that go?
> >
> >And, what are the stats now, is it better to make fire at F4
> >and win, or is it better to win immunity and make it to FTC
> >that way, i.e. without making the fire?
> >
> >I now recall, it was you who compiled stats for this a couple
> >of seasons back, right? Do you still have the file? If not, it
> >should be in the archives for this group, alt.tv.survivor.
> >
> OK, here are the stats on the F4 Fire-making challenge, which has been in
> place since S35 (11 seasons). Essentially, there are seven possible
> outcomes:
>
> Case 1: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4 winner goes to
> finale and wins
> Case 2: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4 winner goes to
> finale and comes in second
> Case 3: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4 winner goes to
> finale and comes in third
> Case 4: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire challenge - goes
> to finale and wins
> Case 5: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire challenge - goes
> to finale and comes in second
> Case 6: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire challenge - goes
> to finale and comes in third
> Case 7: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and loses fire challenge - does
> not go to finale
>
> Here are the results:
>
> Case 1: Has only happened twice: Nick (S37) and Dee (S45)
> Case 2: Has happened four times: Chrissy (S35), Domenick (S36), Natalie
> (S40), Cassidy (S43)
> Case 3: Has happened three times: Noura (S39), Xander (S41) and Romeo
> (S42)
> Case 4: Has famously only happened once: Chris (S38)
> Case 5: Has also only happened once: Heidi (S44)
> Case 6: Has never happened
> Case 7: Has never happened
>
> Not sure we really have a big enough sample to draw any conclusions, but
> maybe the most interesting result is that seven times out of the eleven
> seasons (nearly 70% of the time), the F4 winner chooses two other players to
> make fire and then ends up not winning the game. It's also interesting that
> aside from Chris, who won S38, Heidi is the only other player to take
> themselves into the fire-making challenge (and she, of course, did not win
> the game).
>
> And of course the fact that only three of the F4 winners ended up winning
> the game (Nick, Chris and Dee), that means in eight out of the eleven
> seasons, the winner of the game did not win the F4 challenge. For the
> record, those non-F4-winner game winners are: Ben, Wendell, Tommy, Tony,
> Erika, Maryanne, Gabler and Yam Yam.
>
> Let the conclusion-drawing begin...
> --

The obvious conclusion so far is that winning F4 Immunity isn't as big a deal as many think it is. It appears to be a liability. It would be interesting to know how many times the F4 Immunity winner has not gotten the vote of the firemaking loser.

Winning fire at F4 probably makes a positive psychological impact on the jury because they get to see it play out. Winning F4 Immunity probably doesn't have the same impact because they have no idea if the winner was dominate, lucked out, etc.

Another obvious conclusion is that players should come prepared knowing how to make fire as quickly possible.

--
Brian

Brian Smith wrote:

> The obvious conclusion so far is that winning F4 Immunity
> isn't as big a deal as many think it is. It appears to be
> a liability.

Okay, we need simplified stats. How many times did the F4
immunity challenge winner beat the fire-making champ at FTC to
win the game? And how many times did the opposite happen?

> Winning fire at F4 probably makes a positive psychological
> impact on the jury because they get to see it play out.
> Winning F4 Immunity probably doesn't have the same impact
> because they have no idea if the winner was dominate, lucked
> out, etc.

This seems to make sense but there can be other reasons as
well. The guys in the jury might have lost immunity challenges
to the F4 winner and that resulted in them not going far in
the game. Thus they identify with the "underdogs" doing
the fire.

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

Rick wrote:

> Essentially, there are seven possible outcomes [...]

OK, so I renamed the 7 cases into short codes.

F4W is for "final four immunity challenge winner" (all cases).
O is for "other players make fire", S is for "self". The digit
is either 1, 2 or 3 (win the game, 2nd and 3rd at FTC). L is
for "loose the fire".

Conclusion:

If you win F4,

- you have a 22% shot at winning if you select other players
to make the fire;

- you have a 50% shot at winning if you make fire yourself.

F4WO1: 2 22%
F4WO2: 4 44% -> 4 + 3 = 7
F4WO3: 3 33% -> 7/9 is 78%
---------------
9 100%

F4WS1: 1 50%
F4WS2: 1 50%
F4WS3: 0 0%
F4WSL: 0 0%
---------------
2 100%

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

On Thu, 28 Dec 2023 19:49:06 +0100, Emanuel Berg <incal@dataswamp.org>
wrote:

>Yeah, as a nod, we had it in Swedish Survivor as well, before
>anyone else :)
>
>But here I am unsure - doing such a thing with no water, no
>food, no sleep, and the overall very stressful situation that
>is Survivor, and the state in which you are in mentally and
>physically at the very end of the game - I don't know if
>that's a good idea.
>
>I'm not a medical professional or anything but to me it
>strikes me as too dangerous?

I saw Swedish Survivor offered for d/l but passed as I had already
seen one of the Israel Survivors and my non-command of Hebrew made it
impossible to follow (other than the interesting difference that they
did Tribal Council at "high noon")

The Horny Goat wrote:

>> Yeah, as a nod, we had it in Swedish Survivor as well,
>> before anyone else :)
>>
>> But here I am unsure - doing such a thing with no water, no
>> food, no sleep, and the overall very stressful situation
>> that is Survivor, and the state in which you are in
>> mentally and physically at the very end of the game -
>> I don't know if that's a good idea.
>>
>> I'm not a medical professional or anything but to me it
>> strikes me as too dangerous?
>
> I saw Swedish Survivor offered for d/l but passed as I had
> already seen one of the Israel Survivors and my non-command
> of Hebrew made it impossible to follow (other than the
> interesting difference that they did Tribal Council at "high
> noon")

The first couple of US seasons were pretty similar to the
original Swedish Survivor. It stands out today as being much
more of an expedition and adventure and less of a competition
the way they edited it.

The camp is also different, a lot of gear everywhere and
products that remind us of home - like cans with beans,
construction/carpentry tools, and stuff they would never show
on US Survivor today, as that would break the illusion and
perfect Survivor picture.

But in an expedition, is is completely normal to bring such
items, so back then no one reacted to their presence.

A lot of the time on TV people didn't talk about the game or
talk strategy at all, instead they complained who didn't work,
who was trying to flirt with who and that was soo annoying,
a lot of meaningless gossip of that kind that would be
considered "unrelated" in modern seasons.

_Why_ someone was voted out was always a big issue, people
explained in length their reasoning, often in terms that
didn't relate to the game. Today that is a non-issue since
that is the goal of the game, everyone understands that.

They also put in subtitles sometimes mocking the castaways,
"Here we see <some dude> making a pathetic attempt at
understanding what two women are talking about", and such
comments, that was very fun IMO :) For sure, the political
correctness of 2024 sure didn't exist back then.

Some challenges were cool tho and truly original, some were
clearly improvised and are more like kids or drunk people's
games by today's standards.

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

Thank for letting me re-live those memories.

This show has meant a lot to me :)

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

"Brian Smith" wrote in message
news:f6286b48-e3f8-4896-afeb-195ec87dd107n@googlegroups.com...
>
>On Thursday, December 28, 2023 at 5:29:16 PM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
>> "Emanuel Berg" wrote in message news:87y1deq...@dataswamp.org...
>> >
>> >Rick wrote:
>> >
>> >>>> They tried to solve this by replacing the F2 with an F3,
>> >>>> but maybe a better solution would be to eliminate the F3
>> >>>> vote and go to a system where the top two finishers in the
>> >>>> F3 immunity challenge go to the final two and the person
>> >>>> who comes in last in the challenge gets eliminated.
>> >>>> This could even be a fire-making challenge where all three
>> >>>> players have to make fire and only the top two finishers
>> >>>> go to the finals.
>> >>>
>> >>> I agree that would be better at F3 but I think the
>> >>> challenge should be more exciting than just 3 guys
>> >>> making fire.
>> >>
>> >> Australian Survivor (and, more recently, Survivor UK) likes
>> >> to do the classic challenge from US Survivor 1 (Borneo)
>> >> where you have three people with their hand on a statue and
>> >> it's strictly longevity, who can keep their hand on the
>> >> statue the longest. Whether that's more exciting than three
>> >> guys making fire is a matter of opinion, but I don't think
>> >> either represents luck. One measures fire-making skills and
>> >> the other the raw determination and physical stamina to keep
>> >> your hand on an idol for several hours. Either works for me.
>> >
>> >Agreed!
>> >
>> >In an ideal world, luck should be completely removed from the
>> >game. This isn't hard to do either, as all such instances can
>> >be solved by challenges. If there is no time or imagination to
>> >do a proper Survivor-style, well-thought and original one, one
>> >can always resort to a fire or something up that alley.
>> >That would always be OK IMO.
>> >
>> >Also, two players at FTC is also more dramatic, more of
>> >a duel, than three players. It doesn't have to be close every
>> >season, but it should also not be "hero vs goat" too much.
>> >
>> >But as we have seen, three players at FTC and the fire-making
>> >twist has not solved the one-sided problem, so the studio
>> >should once again try to come up with modifications to make
>> >the game more fair (less luck) and more exciting (less
>> >one-sided FTCs).
>> >
>> >I think the fire making contest at F4 is _perceived_ as making
>> >the FTC more exciting as there are two "strong" ways to enter
>> >it. Either winning the immunity challenge, _or_ making the
>> >fire. So this is probably not a bad idea, even tho the stats
>> >at this point won't support the notion that FTCs have become
>> >more close because of it.
>> >
>> >We also saw it in the "Survivor Capitalism" season that some
>> >dude won the challenge, but also took upon himself to do the
>> >fire challenge - and won the game. I.e., a super^2 way to FTC
>> >for him. Din anyone else do that? If so, how did that go?
>> >
>> >And, what are the stats now, is it better to make fire at F4
>> >and win, or is it better to win immunity and make it to FTC
>> >that way, i.e. without making the fire?
>> >
>> >I now recall, it was you who compiled stats for this a couple
>> >of seasons back, right? Do you still have the file? If not, it
>> >should be in the archives for this group, alt.tv.survivor.
>> >
>> OK, here are the stats on the F4 Fire-making challenge, which has been in
>> place since S35 (11 seasons). Essentially, there are seven possible
>> outcomes:
>>
>> Case 1: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4 winner goes to
>> finale and wins
>> Case 2: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4 winner goes to
>> finale and comes in second
>> Case 3: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4 winner goes to
>> finale and comes in third
>> Case 4: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire challenge -
>> goes
>> to finale and wins
>> Case 5: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire challenge -
>> goes
>> to finale and comes in second
>> Case 6: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire challenge -
>> goes
>> to finale and comes in third
>> Case 7: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and loses fire challenge -
>> does
>> not go to finale
>>
>> Here are the results:
>>
>> Case 1: Has only happened twice: Nick (S37) and Dee (S45)
>> Case 2: Has happened four times: Chrissy (S35), Domenick (S36), Natalie
>> (S40), Cassidy (S43)
>> Case 3: Has happened three times: Noura (S39), Xander (S41) and Romeo
>> (S42)
>> Case 4: Has famously only happened once: Chris (S38)
>> Case 5: Has also only happened once: Heidi (S44)
>> Case 6: Has never happened
>> Case 7: Has never happened
>>
>> Not sure we really have a big enough sample to draw any conclusions, but
>> maybe the most interesting result is that seven times out of the eleven
>> seasons (nearly 70% of the time), the F4 winner chooses two other players
>> to
>> make fire and then ends up not winning the game. It's also interesting
>> that
>> aside from Chris, who won S38, Heidi is the only other player to take
>> themselves into the fire-making challenge (and she, of course, did not
>> win
>> the game).
>>
>> And of course the fact that only three of the F4 winners ended up winning
>> the game (Nick, Chris and Dee), that means in eight out of the eleven
>> seasons, the winner of the game did not win the F4 challenge. For the
>> record, those non-F4-winner game winners are: Ben, Wendell, Tommy, Tony,
>> Erika, Maryanne, Gabler and Yam Yam.
>>
>> Let the conclusion-drawing begin...
>> --
>
>The obvious conclusion so far is that winning F4 Immunity isn't as big a
>deal as many think it is. It appears to be a liability. It would be
>interesting to know how many times the F4 Immunity winner has not gotten
>the vote of the firemaking loser.
>

The answer is 10 times out of the 11 seasons they have done the fire
challenge. Only F4 winner who got the vote of the fire-making loser was Dee
who got Katurah's vote.

For the 11 seasons from S35 to S45, the losers of the fire challenge and
whom they voted for in the finale are as follows:

S35: F4 winner was Chrissy - fire loser is Devon, who voted for Ryan
S36: F4 winner was Domenick - fire loser is Angela, who voted for Wendell
S37: F4 winner was Nick - fire loser is Kara, who voted for Mike
S38: F4 winner was Chris - fire loser is Devens, who voted for Gavin
S39: F4 winner was Noura - fire loser is Lauren, who voted for Tommy
S40: F4 winner was Natalie - fire loser is Sarah, who voted for Tony
S41: F4 winner was Xander - fire loser is Heather, who voted for Erika
S42: F4 winner was Romeo - fire loser is Jonathan, who voted for Mike
S43: F4 winner was Cassidy- fire loser is Jesse, who voted for Gabler
S44: F4 winner was Heidi - fire loser is Carson, who voted for Yam Yam
S45: F4 winner was Dee - fire loser is Katurah, who voted for Dee

>Winning fire at F4 probably makes a positive psychological impact on the
>jury because they get to see it play out. Winning F4 Immunity probably
>doesn't have the same impact because they have no idea if the winner was
>dominate, lucked out, etc.
>
>Another obvious conclusion is that players should come prepared knowing how
>to make fire as quickly possible.
>
>--
>Brian

--

On Friday, December 29, 2023 at 3:05:27 PM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
> "Brian Smith" wrote in message
> news:f6286b48-e3f8-4896...@googlegroups.com...
> >
> >On Thursday, December 28, 2023 at 5:29:16 PM UTC-7, Rick wrote:
> >> "Emanuel Berg" wrote in message news:87y1deq...@dataswamp.org...
> >> >
> >> >Rick wrote:
> >> >
> >> >>>> They tried to solve this by replacing the F2 with an F3,
> >> >>>> but maybe a better solution would be to eliminate the F3
> >> >>>> vote and go to a system where the top two finishers in the
> >> >>>> F3 immunity challenge go to the final two and the person
> >> >>>> who comes in last in the challenge gets eliminated.
> >> >>>> This could even be a fire-making challenge where all three
> >> >>>> players have to make fire and only the top two finishers
> >> >>>> go to the finals.
> >> >>>
> >> >>> I agree that would be better at F3 but I think the
> >> >>> challenge should be more exciting than just 3 guys
> >> >>> making fire.
> >> >>
> >> >> Australian Survivor (and, more recently, Survivor UK) likes
> >> >> to do the classic challenge from US Survivor 1 (Borneo)
> >> >> where you have three people with their hand on a statue and
> >> >> it's strictly longevity, who can keep their hand on the
> >> >> statue the longest. Whether that's more exciting than three
> >> >> guys making fire is a matter of opinion, but I don't think
> >> >> either represents luck. One measures fire-making skills and
> >> >> the other the raw determination and physical stamina to keep
> >> >> your hand on an idol for several hours. Either works for me.
> >> >
> >> >Agreed!
> >> >
> >> >In an ideal world, luck should be completely removed from the
> >> >game. This isn't hard to do either, as all such instances can
> >> >be solved by challenges. If there is no time or imagination to
> >> >do a proper Survivor-style, well-thought and original one, one
> >> >can always resort to a fire or something up that alley.
> >> >That would always be OK IMO.
> >> >
> >> >Also, two players at FTC is also more dramatic, more of
> >> >a duel, than three players. It doesn't have to be close every
> >> >season, but it should also not be "hero vs goat" too much.
> >> >
> >> >But as we have seen, three players at FTC and the fire-making
> >> >twist has not solved the one-sided problem, so the studio
> >> >should once again try to come up with modifications to make
> >> >the game more fair (less luck) and more exciting (less
> >> >one-sided FTCs).
> >> >
> >> >I think the fire making contest at F4 is _perceived_ as making
> >> >the FTC more exciting as there are two "strong" ways to enter
> >> >it. Either winning the immunity challenge, _or_ making the
> >> >fire. So this is probably not a bad idea, even tho the stats
> >> >at this point won't support the notion that FTCs have become
> >> >more close because of it.
> >> >
> >> >We also saw it in the "Survivor Capitalism" season that some
> >> >dude won the challenge, but also took upon himself to do the
> >> >fire challenge - and won the game. I.e., a super^2 way to FTC
> >> >for him. Din anyone else do that? If so, how did that go?
> >> >
> >> >And, what are the stats now, is it better to make fire at F4
> >> >and win, or is it better to win immunity and make it to FTC
> >> >that way, i.e. without making the fire?
> >> >
> >> >I now recall, it was you who compiled stats for this a couple
> >> >of seasons back, right? Do you still have the file? If not, it
> >> >should be in the archives for this group, alt.tv.survivor.
> >> >
> >> OK, here are the stats on the F4 Fire-making challenge, which has been in
> >> place since S35 (11 seasons). Essentially, there are seven possible
> >> outcomes:
> >>
> >> Case 1: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4 winner goes to
> >> finale and wins
> >> Case 2: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4 winner goes to
> >> finale and comes in second
> >> Case 3: F4 winner selects two other players for fire - F4 winner goes to
> >> finale and comes in third
> >> Case 4: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire challenge -
> >> goes
> >> to finale and wins
> >> Case 5: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire challenge -
> >> goes
> >> to finale and comes in second
> >> Case 6: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and wins fire challenge -
> >> goes
> >> to finale and comes in third
> >> Case 7: F4 winner takes self to fire-making and loses fire challenge -
> >> does
> >> not go to finale
> >>
> >> Here are the results:
> >>
> >> Case 1: Has only happened twice: Nick (S37) and Dee (S45)
> >> Case 2: Has happened four times: Chrissy (S35), Domenick (S36), Natalie
> >> (S40), Cassidy (S43)
> >> Case 3: Has happened three times: Noura (S39), Xander (S41) and Romeo
> >> (S42)
> >> Case 4: Has famously only happened once: Chris (S38)
> >> Case 5: Has also only happened once: Heidi (S44)
> >> Case 6: Has never happened
> >> Case 7: Has never happened
> >>
> >> Not sure we really have a big enough sample to draw any conclusions, but
> >> maybe the most interesting result is that seven times out of the eleven
> >> seasons (nearly 70% of the time), the F4 winner chooses two other players
> >> to
> >> make fire and then ends up not winning the game. It's also interesting
> >> that
> >> aside from Chris, who won S38, Heidi is the only other player to take
> >> themselves into the fire-making challenge (and she, of course, did not
> >> win
> >> the game).
> >>
> >> And of course the fact that only three of the F4 winners ended up winning
> >> the game (Nick, Chris and Dee), that means in eight out of the eleven
> >> seasons, the winner of the game did not win the F4 challenge. For the
> >> record, those non-F4-winner game winners are: Ben, Wendell, Tommy, Tony,
> >> Erika, Maryanne, Gabler and Yam Yam.
> >>
> >> Let the conclusion-drawing begin...
> >> --
> >
> >The obvious conclusion so far is that winning F4 Immunity isn't as big a
> >deal as many think it is. It appears to be a liability. It would be
> >interesting to know how many times the F4 Immunity winner has not gotten
> >the vote of the firemaking loser.
> >
> The answer is 10 times out of the 11 seasons they have done the fire
> challenge. Only F4 winner who got the vote of the fire-making loser was Dee
> who got Katurah's vote.
>
> For the 11 seasons from S35 to S45, the losers of the fire challenge and
> whom they voted for in the finale are as follows:
>
> S35: F4 winner was Chrissy - fire loser is Devon, who voted for Ryan
> S36: F4 winner was Domenick - fire loser is Angela, who voted for Wendell
> S37: F4 winner was Nick - fire loser is Kara, who voted for Mike
> S38: F4 winner was Chris - fire loser is Devens, who voted for Gavin
> S39: F4 winner was Noura - fire loser is Lauren, who voted for Tommy
> S40: F4 winner was Natalie - fire loser is Sarah, who voted for Tony
> S41: F4 winner was Xander - fire loser is Heather, who voted for Erika
> S42: F4 winner was Romeo - fire loser is Jonathan, who voted for Mike
> S43: F4 winner was Cassidy- fire loser is Jesse, who voted for Gabler
> S44: F4 winner was Heidi - fire loser is Carson, who voted for Yam Yam
> S45: F4 winner was Dee - fire loser is Katurah, who voted for Dee

Wow! No wonder F4 Immunity winners often seriously consider doing themselves. Choosing two others to do fire seems like a good way to lose a vote. Dee was lucky Emily chose her and Katurah to go on the reward Emily won.

--
Brian

Brian Smith wrote:

>>> It would be interesting to know how many times the F4
>>> Immunity winner has not gotten the vote of the
>>> firemaking loser.
>>
>> The answer is 10 times out of the 11 seasons they have done
>> the fire challenge. Only F4 winner who got the vote of the
>> fire-making loser was Dee who got Katurah's vote.
>>
>> For the 11 seasons from S35 to S45, the losers of the fire
>> challenge and whom they voted for in the finale are as
>> follows:
>>
>> S35: F4 winner was Chrissy - fire loser is Devon, who voted for Ryan
>> S36: F4 winner was Domenick - fire loser is Angela, who voted for Wendell
>> S37: F4 winner was Nick - fire loser is Kara, who voted for Mike
>> S38: F4 winner was Chris - fire loser is Devens, who voted for Gavin
>> S39: F4 winner was Noura - fire loser is Lauren, who voted for Tommy
>> S40: F4 winner was Natalie - fire loser is Sarah, who voted for Tony
>> S41: F4 winner was Xander - fire loser is Heather, who voted for Erika
>> S42: F4 winner was Romeo - fire loser is Jonathan, who voted for Mike
>> S43: F4 winner was Cassidy - fire loser is Jesse, who voted for Gabler
>> S44: F4 winner was Heidi - fire loser is Carson, who voted for Yam Yam
>> S45: F4 winner was Dee - fire loser is Katurah, who voted for Dee
>
> Wow! No wonder F4 Immunity winners often seriously consider
> doing themselves. Choosing two others to do fire seems like
> a good way to lose a vote. Dee was lucky Emily chose her and
> Katurah to go on the reward Emily won.

So only 1 out of 11, or 9%, the F4 winner got to collect.

So this is the answer then. Why do you loose when you let
other players do the fire? One, you make the opposition look
good in front of the jury, and this is the last thing that
happens; two, you loose one jury vote.

But why doesn't the fire loser vote for the F4 winner?

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

>Brian Smith wrote:
>>
>>>>> It would be interesting to know how many times the F4
>>>>> Immunity winner has not gotten the vote of the
>>>>> firemaking loser.
>>>>
>>>> The answer is 10 times out of the 11 seasons they have done
>>>> the fire challenge. Only F4 winner who got the vote of the
>>>> fire-making loser was Dee who got Katurah's vote.
>>>>
>>>> For the 11 seasons from S35 to S45, the losers of the fire
>>>> challenge and whom they voted for in the finale are as
>>>> follows:
>>>>
>>>> S35: F4 winner was Chrissy - fire loser is Devon, who voted for Ryan
>>>> S36: F4 winner was Domenick - fire loser is Angela, who voted for
>>>> Wendell
>>>> S37: F4 winner was Nick - fire loser is Kara, who voted for Mike
>>>> S38: F4 winner was Chris - fire loser is Devens, who voted for Gavin
>>>> S39: F4 winner was Noura - fire loser is Lauren, who voted for Tommy
>>>> S40: F4 winner was Natalie - fire loser is Sarah, who voted for Tony
>>>> S41: F4 winner was Xander - fire loser is Heather, who voted for Erika
>>>> S42: F4 winner was Romeo - fire loser is Jonathan, who voted for Mike
>>>> S43: F4 winner was Cassidy - fire loser is Jesse, who voted for Gabler
>>>> S44: F4 winner was Heidi - fire loser is Carson, who voted for Yam Yam
>>>> S45: F4 winner was Dee - fire loser is Katurah, who voted for Dee
>>>
>>> Wow! No wonder F4 Immunity winners often seriously consider
>>> doing themselves. Choosing two others to do fire seems like
>>> a good way to lose a vote. Dee was lucky Emily chose her and
>>> Katurah to go on the reward Emily won.
>>
>>So only 1 out of 11, or 9%, the F4 winner got to collect.
>>
>>So this is the answer then. Why do you loose when you let
>>other players do the fire? One, you make the opposition look
>>good in front of the jury, and this is the last thing that
>>happens; two, you loose one jury vote.
>>
>>But why doesn't the fire loser vote for the F4 winner?
>>
>
>
>--

Well the obvious answer is that it's payback for being selected to make the
fire instead of being brought to F3. This may, for example, have been the
reason why Jesse refused to vote for Cassidy in S43 and voted for Gabler
instead. There are also alliance-related reasons like Sarah voting for her
long-time ally and fellow cop Tony to win S40 and Carson who voted for his
alliance member and original tribe mate Yam Yam in S44.

Similarly, you had Heather refusing to vote for Xander (who most players
thought was too young and hadn't really been strategic enough to win the
game) and voting for fellow female Erika. Then you have the case of Rick
Devens, who in addition to possible sour grapes over Chris effectively
ending his game, may have felt (like many fans) that Chris didn't serve to
win the game due to his having effectively been out of the game for several
episodes when he was in exile.

--

Rick wrote:

>> So only 1 out of 11, or 9%, the F4 winner got to collect.
>>
>> So this is the answer then. Why do you loose when you let
>> other players do the fire? One, you make the opposition
>> look good in front of the jury, and this is the last thing
>> that happens; two, you loose one jury vote.
>>
>> But why doesn't the fire loser vote for the F4 winner?
>
> Well the obvious answer is that it's payback for being
> selected to make the fire instead of being brought to F3.
> This may, for example, have been the reason why Jesse
> refused to vote for Cassidy in S43 and voted for Gabler
> instead. There are also alliance-related reasons like Sarah
> voting for her long-time ally and fellow cop Tony to win S40
> and Carson who voted for his alliance member and original
> tribe mate Yam Yam in S44.
>
> Similarly, you had Heather refusing to vote for Xander (who
> most players thought was too young and hadn't really been
> strategic enough to win the game) and voting for fellow
> female Erika. Then you have the case of Rick Devens, who in
> addition to possible sour grapes over Chris effectively
> ending his game, may have felt (like many fans) that Chris
> didn't serve to win the game due to his having effectively
> been out of the game for several episodes when he was
> in exile.

Yes, but first you say there is an obvious answer, then you
go on and give several others?

--
underground experts united
https://dataswamp.org/~incal

"Emanuel Berg" wrote in message news:87tto0i0vb.fsf@dataswamp.org...
>
>Rick wrote:
>
>>> So only 1 out of 11, or 9%, the F4 winner got to collect.
>>>
>>> So this is the answer then. Why do you loose when you let
>>> other players do the fire? One, you make the opposition
>>> look good in front of the jury, and this is the last thing
>>> that happens; two, you loose one jury vote.
>>>
>>> But why doesn't the fire loser vote for the F4 winner?
>>
>> Well the obvious answer is that it's payback for being
>> selected to make the fire instead of being brought to F3.
>> This may, for example, have been the reason why Jesse
>> refused to vote for Cassidy in S43 and voted for Gabler
>> instead. There are also alliance-related reasons like Sarah
>> voting for her long-time ally and fellow cop Tony to win S40
>> and Carson who voted for his alliance member and original
>> tribe mate Yam Yam in S44.
>>
>> Similarly, you had Heather refusing to vote for Xander (who
>> most players thought was too young and hadn't really been
>> strategic enough to win the game) and voting for fellow
>> female Erika. Then you have the case of Rick Devens, who in
>> addition to possible sour grapes over Chris effectively
>> ending his game, may have felt (like many fans) that Chris
>> didn't serve to win the game due to his having effectively
>> been out of the game for several episodes when he was
>> in exile.
>
>Yes, but first you say there is an obvious answer, then you
>go on and give several others?
>

I'm saying the obvious answer may not tell the whole story.

--