from
https://www.space.com/chinese-preeminence-moon-mars-op-ed

Are we prepared for Chinese preeminence on the moon and Mars? (op-ed)
News
By Chris Carberry, Joe Cassady published April 19, 2024
China is moving fast in the final frontier.

Comments (27)
an illustration of a Chinese moon base
Artist's illustration of a possible Chinese moon base. (Image credit:
gremlin/Getty Images)

Chris Carberry is CEO of Explore Mars, Inc. and author of "The Music of
Space" and "Alcohol in Space." Joe Cassady is Director, Civil Space at
L3Harris as well as Executive VP of Explore Mars, Inc. They contributed
this article to Space.com's Expert Voices: Op-Ed & Insights.

The United States appears to be entering the golden age of space
exploration. Over the past few years, the nation has conducted an
unprecedented number of launches, countless space hardware developments,
and notched innumerable other milestones. Nevertheless, despite these
accomplishments, the United States could lose its decades-old leadership
in space exploration and technology to China.

The People's Republic of China (PRC) is making steady drives forward in
all aspects of human and robotics capabilities. China's space
accomplishments over the past few years include the success of the Long
March 5B heavy-lift vehicle and the construction of the Tiangong space
station. In 2019, China became the first nation to successfully
"soft-land" a vehicle, the robotic Chang'e 4 rover-lander duo, on the
far side of the moon. Then, a year later, the Chang'e 5 mission
successfully accomplished a sample-return mission from the moon.

Related: China moving at 'breathtaking speed' in final frontier, Space
Force says

More recently, on March 20, 2024, China launched its relay satellite,
Queqiao-2. This accomplishment will enable the Chinese to conduct
operations on the far side of the moon, and lays the groundwork for the
Chang'e 6 lunar far side sample return mission later this year, to be
followed by the Chang'e 7 lander and rover in 2026 and the Chang'e 8
mission in 2028, which will include a lunar In-Situ Resource Utilization
(ISRU) demonstration. China has also announced a goal for surface
missions by Chinese taikonauts, possibly by 2030. And, as the United
States and its partners continue to struggle with achieving a Mars
Sample Return mission, China has announced its goal to conduct such a
mission in 2030.

While these accomplishments still pale by comparison to those of the
United States over the past 60 years, the rate at which the Chinese have
been catching up is alarming. According to a 2022 Pentagon report, the
U.S. could lose its lead in space technology as soon as 2045. The report
notes that, while U.S. industrial capacity is expanding, "the upward
trajectory of the People's Republic of China…is even steeper, with a
significant rate of overtake, requiring urgent action." The report added
that "the U.S. lacks a clear and cohesive long-term vision, a grand
strategy for space that sustains economic, technological, environmental,
social and military (defense) leadership for the next half century and
beyond."

a banner advertising a conference titled "humans to mars"

Learn more about the 2024 Humans to Mars summit here. (Image credit:
ExploreMars.Org)
Why is this important? Investment in space exploration and development
capabilities is an investment in the country. These endeavors bolster
innovation and new markets, as well as national standing, diplomacy and
national security, while at the same time assure that the United States
remains the undisputed leader in scientific discovery, inspiration and
STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) education. And while
NASA is a civilian space agency, we can't ignore the broader
implications of surrendering our lead in space. According to the
U.S-China Economic and Security Review Commission's report to Congress,
"Beijing has specific plans not merely to explore space, but to
industrially dominate the space within the moon's orbit of Earth. China
has invested significant resources in exploring the national security
and economic value of this area, including its potential for space-based
manufacturing, resource extraction, and power generation, although
experts differ on the feasibility of some of these activities."

Get the Space.com Newsletter
Breaking space news, the latest updates on rocket launches, skywatching
events and more!

Your Email Address
Contact me with news and offers from other Future brands
Receive email from us on behalf of our trusted partners or sponsors
By submitting your information you agree to the Terms & Conditions and
Privacy Policy and are aged 16 or over.
The good news is that the United States still has a clear advantage in
this competition. Over the past several years, we have seen the
successful launch of the Artemis 1 mission, with Artemis 2 and 3
scheduled to occur by the end of 2027. Meanwhile, commercial entities
are launching at an unprecedented rate, significantly expanding our
overall national capacity to reach space. In short, this is our race to
lose.

Related: NASA's Artemis program: Everything you need to know

Given the progress that the United States has made in developing space
infrastructure and capabilities in recent years, why are we at risk of
being surpassed? Dean Cheng of the U.S. Institute of Peace told us
thatpart of the problem is, “while people are interested in space, it is
not as in the public imagination and concern as it was during the Space
Race of the 1960s, when there were space launches every few weeks.
Ironically, because space has become more routinized, there is less
concern about competition.” With so many other major national issues
that hold center stage, the Administration and Congress also do not
appear to be appropriately focused and motivated in what truly
constitutes the new Space Race. Stable bipartisan support remains, but
we seem to lack a sense of national urgency.

Nevertheless, unlike most domestic programs, our plan to send humans to
the moon and Mars is something of a "unicorn" in our divisive political
environment. It represents a program and an objective that has had
strong bipartisan support for over a decade. This rare example of
political solidarity should not be ignored. It should be embraced as
evidence that our elected officials can unite on some issues — and in so
doing, help to solidify our national standing for decades to come.

However, we must not repeat the policy mistakes of the Apollo program of
the 1960s and early 1970s. While Apollo successfully landed crews on the
moon by the end of the 1960s, it was not a sustainable program from a
budgetary or political perspective. Upwards of 4%of the annual federal
budget was committed to Apollo (as compared to NASA's current budget of
less than 0.5% of the federal budget). The program also only had one
significant political objective — to beat the Soviet Union to the moon.
It succeeded spectacularly in this regard. It was unquestionably a major
milestone in human history. But after its success and the realization
that the Soviet Union was abandoning its lunar aspirations, there
remained little political motivation to continue the program, and it was
abruptly halted.

RELATED STORIES:
— 'We're in a space race:' NASA chief says US 'better watch out' for China

— China plans to put astronauts on the moon before 2030

— US must beat China back to the moon, Congress tells NASA

NASA's current budget is unlikely to increase dramatically in the near
future, but the United States can nevertheless still build a sustainable
program that ensures that we retain our hard-earned status as the
preeminent space nation. Rather than the military-like campaign of the
Apollo program, we have a chance to prevail by harnessing the ingenuity
and capabilities of our U.S. commercial industry and our international
partners. By doing so, we simultaneously advance a vital national
interest but also stimulate innovative new markets and strengthen our
international alliances.

Are there risks? Of course. Virtually every great human accomplishment
has required innumerable forms of risk. However, by accepting these
risks, we will give ourselves a very real chance that the rest of the
21st century will not only be an American century but one where we have
nurtured major new markets and created stronger international relations.

Note: An expert panel will be discussing this topic at the 2024 Humans
to Mars Summit taking place on May 7-8, 2024 at the Jack Morton
Auditorium, at the George Washington University in Washington, D.C.

Join our Space Forums to keep talking space on the latest missions,
night sky and more! And if you have a news tip, correction or comment,
let us know at: community@space.com.

Chris Carberry
Chris Carberry
CEO and co-founder of Explore Mars, Inc.
Chris Carberry is the CEO and co-founder of Explore Mars, Inc. (Explore
Mars), a 501(c)(3) nonprofit space advocacy. In this role, he has
overseen Explore Mars’ annual Humans to Mars Summit, the largest annual
conference focused on sending humans to Mars, and has spearheaded dozens
of programs, projects, and outreach efforts. Prior to joining Explore
Mars, Carberry served as Executive Director of The Mars Society.
Carberry has presented oral (and written) testimony to both the United
States Senate as well as the United States House of Representatives. He
is also the author of over 100 articles that have appeared in
publications around the world and has been featured in over 100 national
and international television, radio programs and podcasts. Carberry is
the author of the 2019 book "Alcohol in Space: Past, Present and
Future," which is currently being adapted into documentary film that
will be released in 2023. Carberry also has two books scheduled for
release: "Scoring Space" (2023) and "A Future Spacefaring Society" (2024).

Le 2024-04-24 à 18:14, a425couple a écrit :
> from
> https://www.space.com/chinese-preeminence-moon-mars-op-ed
>
> Are we prepared for Chinese preeminence on the moon and Mars? (op-ed)
> News
> By Chris Carberry, Joe Cassady published April 19, 2024
> China is moving fast in the final frontier.
>

Given the crumbling Chinese economy and population regression crisis
that China is currently experiencing, the Chinese establishing a base on
the Moon is an highly improbable scenario. China just no longer have the
mean of achieving that.

China's economy is rotting from the inside with systematic fraud,
rampant institutionalized corruption and overall inefficiency.

The population regression crisis is ongoing and can't be corrected in a
timely fashion. It may take over 100 years JUST to stop the regression,
to stabilize the population. That's the unintended result of the «One
family, one child» policy.

On 4/25/24 07:01, Kualinar wrote:
> Le 2024-04-24 à 18:14, a425couple a écrit :
>> from
>> https://www.space.com/chinese-preeminence-moon-mars-op-ed
>>
>> Are we prepared for Chinese preeminence on the moon and Mars? (op-ed)
>> News
>> By Chris Carberry, Joe Cassady published April 19, 2024
>> China is moving fast in the final frontier.
>>
>
> Given the crumbling Chinese economy and population regression crisis
> that China is currently experiencing, the Chinese establishing a base on
> the Moon is an highly improbable scenario. China just no longer have the
> mean of achieving that.
>
> China's economy is rotting from the inside with systematic fraud,
> rampant institutionalized corruption and overall inefficiency.
>
> The population regression crisis is ongoing and can't be corrected in a
> timely fashion. It may take over 100 years JUST to stop the regression,
> to stabilize the population. That's the unintended result of the «One
> family, one child» policy.

IMHO, your points are valid, but it is also a fact that
China has huge infrastructure building capacity and
national central power dedication.

We struggle to build a aircraft carrier every decade
or so. For uses we have to consider our DDs as
rare capital ships. China has no problem building
an island and putting a airport on it.
Their Navy out numbers ours.
US dithers, China builds fast rail to all areas
of their country.

They have little problems with Congresspersons
wanting tax cuts rather than important projects.

On 4/25/24 07:01, Kualinar wrote:
> Le 2024-04-24 à 18:14, a425couple a écrit :
>> from
>> https://www.space.com/chinese-preeminence-moon-mars-op-ed
>>
>> Are we prepared for Chinese preeminence on the moon and Mars? (op-ed)
>> News
>> By Chris Carberry, Joe Cassady published April 19, 2024
>> China is moving fast in the final frontier.
>>
>
> Given the crumbling Chinese economy and population regression crisis
> that China is currently experiencing, the Chinese establishing a base on
> the Moon is an highly improbable scenario. China just no longer have the
> mean of achieving that.
>
> China's economy is rotting from the inside with systematic fraud,
> rampant institutionalized corruption and overall inefficiency.
>
> The population regression crisis is ongoing and can't be corrected in a
> timely fashion. It may take over 100 years JUST to stop the regression,
> to stabilize the population. That's the unintended result of the «One
> family, one child» policy.

IMHO, your points are valid, but it is also a fact that
China has huge infrastructure building capacity and
national central power dedication.

We struggle to build a aircraft carrier every decade
or so. For uses we have to consider our DDs as
rare capital ships. China has no problem building
an island and putting a airport on it.
Their Navy out numbers ours.
US dithers, China builds fast rail to all areas
of their country.

They have little problems with Congresspersons
wanting tax cuts rather than important projects.

"Kualinar" wrote in message news:v0dnn2$31l48$1@dont-email.me...

Le 2024-04-24 à 18:14, a425couple a écrit :
> from
> https://www.space.com/chinese-preeminence-moon-mars-op-ed
>
> Are we prepared for Chinese preeminence on the moon and Mars? (op-ed)
> News
> By Chris Carberry, Joe Cassady published April 19, 2024
> China is moving fast in the final frontier.
>

Given the crumbling Chinese economy and population regression crisis
that China is currently experiencing, the Chinese establishing a base on
the Moon is an highly improbable scenario. China just no longer have the
mean of achieving that.

China's economy is rotting from the inside with systematic fraud,
rampant institutionalized corruption and overall inefficiency.

The population regression crisis is ongoing and can't be corrected in a
timely fashion. It may take over 100 years JUST to stop the regression,
to stabilize the population. That's the unintended result of the «One
family, one child» policy.

-----------------------------

That's exactly the type of situation where a desperate government invents a
distraction to regain popular support.
Haven't you noticed how far inept leftists will go to convince themselves
they are superior to more productive people.

On 4/25/24 12:28, Jim Wilkins wrote:
> "Kualinar"  wrote in message news:v0dnn2$31l48$1@dont-email.me...
>
> Le 2024-04-24 à 18:14, a425couple a écrit :
>> from
>> https://www.space.com/chinese-preeminence-moon-mars-op-ed
>>
>> Are we prepared for Chinese preeminence on the moon and Mars? (op-ed)
>> News
>> By Chris Carberry, Joe Cassady published April 19, 2024
>> China is moving fast in the final frontier.
>>
>
> Given the crumbling Chinese economy and population regression crisis
> that China is currently experiencing, the Chinese establishing a base on
> the Moon is an highly improbable scenario. China just no longer have the
> mean of achieving that.
>
> China's economy is rotting from the inside with systematic fraud,
> rampant institutionalized corruption and overall inefficiency.
>
> The population regression crisis is ongoing and can't be corrected in a
> timely fashion. It may take over 100 years JUST to stop the regression,
> to stabilize the population. That's the unintended result of the «One
> family, one child» policy.
>
> -----------------------------
>
> That's exactly the type of situation where a desperate government
> invents a distraction to regain popular support.
> Haven't you noticed how far inept leftists will go to convince
> themselves they are superior to more productive people.
>
Yes.
One can argue that a couple years ago Russia's "economy is rotting
from the inside with systematic fraud, rampant institutionalized
corruption and overall inefficiency (while also having) a population
regression crisis".
So, they certainly would not be stupid enough to invade a neighboring
country like Ukraine.

"a425couple" wrote in message news:0yCWN.44028$59Pb.40503@fx16.iad...

On 4/25/24 12:28, Jim Wilkins wrote:
> "Kualinar" wrote in message news:v0dnn2$31l48$1@dont-email.me...
>
> Le 2024-04-24 à 18:14, a425couple a écrit :
>> from
>> https://www.space.com/chinese-preeminence-moon-mars-op-ed
>>
>> Are we prepared for Chinese preeminence on the moon and Mars? (op-ed)
>> News
>> By Chris Carberry, Joe Cassady published April 19, 2024
>> China is moving fast in the final frontier.
>>
>
> Given the crumbling Chinese economy and population regression crisis
> that China is currently experiencing, the Chinese establishing a base on
> the Moon is an highly improbable scenario. China just no longer have the
> mean of achieving that.
>
> China's economy is rotting from the inside with systematic fraud,
> rampant institutionalized corruption and overall inefficiency.
>
> The population regression crisis is ongoing and can't be corrected in a
> timely fashion. It may take over 100 years JUST to stop the regression,
> to stabilize the population. That's the unintended result of the «One
> family, one child» policy.
>
> -----------------------------
>
> That's exactly the type of situation where a desperate government invents
> a distraction to regain popular support.
> Haven't you noticed how far inept leftists will go to convince themselves
> they are superior to more productive people.
>
Yes.
One can argue that a couple years ago Russia's "economy is rotting
from the inside with systematic fraud, rampant institutionalized
corruption and overall inefficiency (while also having) a population
regression crisis".
So, they certainly would not be stupid enough to invade a neighboring
country like Ukraine.

------------------
Both ends of the spinal cord compete to control us.

Le 2024-04-25 à 15:28, Jim Wilkins a écrit :
> "Kualinar"  wrote in message news:v0dnn2$31l48$1@dont-email.me...
>
> Le 2024-04-24 à 18:14, a425couple a écrit :
>> from
>> https://www.space.com/chinese-preeminence-moon-mars-op-ed
>>
>> Are we prepared for Chinese preeminence on the moon and Mars? (op-ed)
>> News
>> By Chris Carberry, Joe Cassady published April 19, 2024
>> China is moving fast in the final frontier.
>>
>
> Given the crumbling Chinese economy and population regression crisis
> that China is currently experiencing, the Chinese establishing a base on
> the Moon is an highly improbable scenario. China just no longer have the
> mean of achieving that.
>
> China's economy is rotting from the inside with systematic fraud,
> rampant institutionalized corruption and overall inefficiency.
>
> The population regression crisis is ongoing and can't be corrected in a
> timely fashion. It may take over 100 years JUST to stop the regression,
> to stabilize the population. That's the unintended result of the «One
> family, one child» policy.
>
> -----------------------------
>
> That's exactly the type of situation where a desperate government
> invents a distraction to regain popular support.
> Haven't you noticed how far inept leftists will go to convince
> themselves they are superior to more productive people.
>
Inept rightists do the same.