Seems inevitable with Putins failed invasion riling passions, patriotism
and anger, outcome impossible to predict

```````````````

Wagner mercenaries march on Moscow to target 'evil' military top brass:
Putin on alert as Prigozhin enters Russia, claims to down helicopter and
vows 'we'll destroy anything, we'll go all the way' - Kremlin says he's
inciting CIVIL WAR and deploys troops

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed Russia had bombed his army's
bases
He has vowed revenge as the Kremlin called for an end to group's
'illegal actions'
Security forces are reporting to Vladimir Putin as Prigozhin is
accused of mutiny

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12228381/Wagner-mercenaries-killed-RUSSIAN-missile-strikes.html
--
Woe to those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for
light and light for darkness, who put bitter for sweet and sweet for bitter.

On Fri, 23 Jun 2023 21:37:28 -0400, JeSSe wrote:

> Seems inevitable with Putins failed invasion riling passions, patriotism
> and anger, outcome impossible to predict
>
> ```````````````
>
> Wagner mercenaries march on Moscow to target 'evil' military top brass:
> Putin on alert as Prigozhin enters Russia, claims to down helicopter and
> vows 'we'll destroy anything, we'll go all the way' - Kremlin says he's
> inciting CIVIL WAR and deploys troops
>
> Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed Russia had bombed his army's
> bases
> He has vowed revenge as the Kremlin called for an end to group's
> 'illegal actions'
> Security forces are reporting to Vladimir Putin as Prigozhin is
> accused of mutiny
>
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12228381/Wagner-mercenaries-
killed-RUSSIAN-missile-strikes.html

It likely depends on whether or not Prigozhin makes good progress. If he
looks like he's going to be the man to hang Putin by his toes then he'll
get support and there'll be a fight. Whoever publicly backs Prigozhin is
staking their lives on him, especially any top people.

I've heard talk that Prigozhin is effectively bargaining for the position
of defence minister. I don't think so. He wouldn't last a week before he
woke up with a knife in his back.

On Sat, 24 Jun 2023 13:48:24 GMT
TWP <ngspammersad@yahoo.com> wrote:

> It likely depends on whether or not Prigozhin makes good progress.
> If he looks like he's going to be the man to hang Putin by his toes
> then he'll get support and there'll be a fight.

I'm sure he'll get some support but how much is the question, and how useful that support is.

> Whoever publicly
> backs Prigozhin is staking their lives on him, especially any top
> people.

Yup.

> I've heard talk that Prigozhin is effectively bargaining for the
> position of defence minister. I don't think so. He wouldn't last a
> week before he woke up with a knife in his back.

Not now, no. Not since he's declared his intent.

It always seemed to me he was angling to get Shoigu's job simply so he could legitimately command the Russian military, would be better placed to instigate a military coup to overthrow Putin.

He seems to have given up on that now and has simply gone for it anyway.

So the question is, will the coup succeed or not ?

He's got a pretty large military and mercenary force who will know it's succeed or die but they are split into two factions. If those in Ukraine decide Prigozhin is not worth dying for they'll simply stand down say 'nothing to do with me mate, I've always loved Putin', which leaves only his faction on Rostov-on-Don.

I haven't been following the news but I don't expect Rostov-on-Don will be standing for long.

I look at it this way; if US, UK or NATO dropped 30,000 troops in Rostov-on-Don, told them they were on their own, with no air support or supply lines, would they be able to assert regime change ?

Can't see it happening myself. I don't think it's any more likely than a military uprising of 30,000 in America overthrowing the presidency.

It might bring people out in Moscow demanding Putin must go but they'll be brutally and easily dispatched by police and whatever passes for national guard.

Most people, even if they want the coup to succeed, won't stand up, won't join the actual fight, until they can see some sign that it looks likely to succeed, that they aren't condemning themselves to something worse than they have.

Putin won't let it reach that stage. I am sure he's already considered, 'if we have to nuke it, we will' but I doubt he'll even need to go that far.

Western propagandists have spent the last two years telling us Putin has little support, Russians are against him, hate him for the harm he's done to them and Russia, but that's just propaganda lies.

Russia's economy has fared better than most others in the world, Russians are suffering less than Brits are, support for Putin was 80%-plus, and most Russians are in favour of the war, even if they think it hasn't been as successful as it was meant to have been and they aren't happy about the conscription. Most who were against the war have already fled the country.

There's very few signs of 'we're not gonna take it' in Russia. Less than even here.

TWP wrote:
> On Fri, 23 Jun 2023 21:37:28 -0400, JeSSe wrote:
>
>> Seems inevitable with Putins failed invasion riling passions, patriotism
>> and anger, outcome impossible to predict
>>
>> ```````````````
>>
>> Wagner mercenaries march on Moscow to target 'evil' military top brass:
>> Putin on alert as Prigozhin enters Russia, claims to down helicopter and
>> vows 'we'll destroy anything, we'll go all the way' - Kremlin says he's
>> inciting CIVIL WAR and deploys troops
>>
>> Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed Russia had bombed his army's
>> bases
>> He has vowed revenge as the Kremlin called for an end to group's
>> 'illegal actions'
>> Security forces are reporting to Vladimir Putin as Prigozhin is
>> accused of mutiny
>>
>> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12228381/Wagner-mercenaries-
> killed-RUSSIAN-missile-strikes.html
>
>
> It likely depends on whether or not Prigozhin makes good progress. If he
> looks like he's going to be the man to hang Putin by his toes then he'll
> get support and there'll be a fight. Whoever publicly backs Prigozhin is
> staking their lives on him, especially any top people.
>
> I've heard talk that Prigozhin is effectively bargaining for the position
> of defence minister. I don't think so. He wouldn't last a week before he
> woke up with a knife in his back.

Its tough to like his odds but little use speculating, and stranger
things have happened.

Nice bonus for Ukraine though, war criminal Vs bigger war criminal can
be nothing but good for them, maybe Zelensky can keep his trap shut a
bit for once and let things run their course.

--
Woe to those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for
light and light for darkness, who put bitter for sweet and sweet for bitter.

In article <ElElM.57200$jlQ4.20676@fx12.iad>, JeSSe <zo@so.org> wrote:

> Nice bonus for Ukraine though, war criminal Vs bigger war criminal can
> be nothing but good for them,

Unless Putin totally loses it, and does something insane.

Imagine how the cocksucker feels right now. He could have been
remembered as a somewhat brutal (ya know, murdering a journalist
or someone else who annoyed him, here and there), but generally
successful leader. And now, after a totally unnecessary, and totally
idiotic move, he's toast; whatever happens, he will go down in
history as a colossal loser and mass murderer. Can drive anyone
crazy, even more so a dictator with a huge ego nearing the end
of his life.

Let's hope that if he does lose it, someone will put a bullet in
his head. Maybe the wagner guy knows something.

Loose Cannon wrote:
> In article <ElElM.57200$jlQ4.20676@fx12.iad>, JeSSe <zo@so.org> wrote:
>
>> Nice bonus for Ukraine though, war criminal Vs bigger war criminal can
>> be nothing but good for them,
>
> Unless Putin totally loses it, and does something insane.
>
> Imagine how the cocksucker feels right now. He could have been
> remembered as a somewhat brutal (ya know, murdering a journalist
> or someone else who annoyed him, here and there), but generally
> successful leader. And now, after a totally unnecessary, and totally
> idiotic move, he's toast; whatever happens, he will go down in
> history as a colossal loser and mass murderer. Can drive anyone
> crazy, even more so a dictator with a huge ego nearing the end
> of his life.
>
> Let's hope that if he does lose it, someone will put a bullet in
> his head. Maybe the wagner guy knows something.

Well yeah, things obviously have the potential to get dicey especially
if Vlad decides to go out with a bang.

Reported now that Wagner chief Dirlewanger, err I mean Prigozhin, is
giving up and heading back to base, wherever that may be.

We'll see, consequences are bound to be very messy and Vlad is bound to
be very shaken either way.

--
Woe to those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for
light and light for darkness, who put bitter for sweet and sweet for bitter.

On Sat, 24 Jun 2023 13:48:24 GMT
TWP <ngspammersad@yahoo.com> wrote:

> It likely depends on whether or not Prigozhin makes good progress.

Well, he seems to have blown it already.

It was highly amusing to see the propagandist Sky News found overjoyed at the prospect of Putin being definitely fucked. He had decided it was all over bar stringing him up, was lapping up the rumours that Putin had gone into hiding, that his closest allies were readying to put a bullet in his head.. And that perhaps wasn't hard to believe as we watched the convoy of criminal mercenaries storming up the motorway towards Moscow.

He even batted away the Belarusian announcement that Prigozhin had agreed to stand down, labelled it, Fake News, Putin Propaganda.

He looked quite deflated when Prigozhin announced he had, was turning round his convoy, retreating back to Rostov-on-Don, with the feeble excuse of wanting to save blood-letting.

His own presumably. Though, if Putin did order a missile strike on him, I can't see him being less inclined to launch another now. I'd be expecting a full-on airstrike against Rostov-on-Don.

I'm not sure how Prigozhin can call it a win or spin it as such. I have no idea where he goes from here - physically, politically, or militarily.

I'd say he's a dead man walking, and that's being generous.

On Sat, 24 Jun 2023 15:51:02 +0100, The Happy Hippy wrote:

> On Sat, 24 Jun 2023 13:48:24 GMT TWP <ngspammersad@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>> It likely depends on whether or not Prigozhin makes good progress. If
>> he looks like he's going to be the man to hang Putin by his toes then
>> he'll get support and there'll be a fight.
>
> I'm sure he'll get some support but how much is the question, and how
> useful that support is.
>
>
>> Whoever publicly backs Prigozhin is staking their lives on him,
>> especially any top people.
>
> Yup.
>
>
>> I've heard talk that Prigozhin is effectively bargaining for the
>> position of defence minister. I don't think so. He wouldn't last a
>> week before he woke up with a knife in his back.
>
> Not now, no. Not since he's declared his intent.
>
> It always seemed to me he was angling to get Shoigu's job simply so he
> could legitimately command the Russian military, would be better placed
> to instigate a military coup to overthrow Putin.
>
> He seems to have given up on that now and has simply gone for it anyway.
>
> So the question is, will the coup succeed or not ?
>
> He's got a pretty large military and mercenary force who will know it's
> succeed or die but they are split into two factions. If those in Ukraine
> decide Prigozhin is not worth dying for they'll simply stand down say
> 'nothing to do with me mate, I've always loved Putin', which leaves only
> his faction on Rostov-on-Don.
>
> I haven't been following the news but I don't expect Rostov-on-Don will
> be standing for long.
>
> I look at it this way; if US, UK or NATO dropped 30,000 troops in
> Rostov-on-Don, told them they were on their own, with no air support or
> supply lines, would they be able to assert regime change ?
>
> Can't see it happening myself. I don't think it's any more likely than a
> military uprising of 30,000 in America overthrowing the presidency.
>
> It might bring people out in Moscow demanding Putin must go but they'll
> be brutally and easily dispatched by police and whatever passes for
> national guard.
>
> Most people, even if they want the coup to succeed, won't stand up,
> won't join the actual fight, until they can see some sign that it looks
> likely to succeed, that they aren't condemning themselves to something
> worse than they have.
>
> Putin won't let it reach that stage. I am sure he's already considered,
> 'if we have to nuke it, we will' but I doubt he'll even need to go that
> far.
>
> Western propagandists have spent the last two years telling us Putin has
> little support, Russians are against him, hate him for the harm he's
> done to them and Russia, but that's just propaganda lies.
>
> Russia's economy has fared better than most others in the world,
> Russians are suffering less than Brits are, support for Putin was
> 80%-plus, and most Russians are in favour of the war, even if they think
> it hasn't been as successful as it was meant to have been and they
> aren't happy about the conscription. Most who were against the war have
> already fled the country.
>
> There's very few signs of 'we're not gonna take it' in Russia. Less than
> even here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142

"Wagner chief says mercenaries turning back to 'avoid bloodshed'"

That wouldn't be good enough for me - I can't see it being good enough for
Putin. Putin must really need this guy for him to still have a pulse.

On Sat, 24 Jun 2023 18:44:27 GMT
TWP <ngspammersad@yahoo.com> wrote:

> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142
>
> "Wagner chief says mercenaries turning back to 'avoid bloodshed'"
>
> That wouldn't be good enough for me - I can't see it being good
> enough for Putin. Putin must really need this guy for him to still
> have a pulse.

The minor tiff is all sorted now and it's back to being Bestest Friends Forever with Prigozhin retiring to Belarus and everything forgiven.

I'm told Putin isn't the brilliant strategist some think he is so I doubt he's let him live to avoid any backlash for killing him from the usual suspects and he'll be truly heartbroken when Prigozhin dies in a car crash, simply disappears, is reported killed by a Ukrainian or one of his own criminal mercenaries.

It's a great victory for Prigozhin.

A terrible result for Putin.