Might be interesting for the UK , if the heat dome over the Med is still
there to extract energy from. GFS doing the normal reaction to chaos
theory, one run present , next gone totally.
Yesterday it gave the continuance/ex-Don giving sustained 55mph wind in
the English Channel in late July.

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

On 14/07/2023 15:04, N_Cook wrote:
> Might be interesting for the UK , if the heat dome over the Med is still
> there to extract energy from. GFS doing the normal reaction to chaos
> theory, one run present , next gone totally.
> Yesterday it gave the continuance/ex-Don giving sustained 55mph wind in
> the English Channel in late July.
>

forgot NHC ref
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

On 14/07/2023 15:10, N_Cook wrote:
> On 14/07/2023 15:04, N_Cook wrote:
>> Might be interesting for the UK , if the heat dome over the Med is still
>> there to extract energy from. GFS doing the normal reaction to chaos
>> theory, one run present , next gone totally.
>> Yesterday it gave the continuance/ex-Don giving sustained 55mph wind in
>> the English Channel in late July.
>>
>
> forgot NHC ref
> https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents
>

Reborn Don
https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/
perhaps making its first landfall the UK about 10 days time

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

On 18/07/2023 08:26, N_Cook wrote:
>>
>
> Reborn Don
> https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/
> perhaps making its first landfall the UK about 10 days time

UK first landfall about 28 July
https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

Firmed up ,first landfall over the UK for whatever is left of Don

https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk> wrote:

> Firmed up ,first landfall over the UK for whatever is left of Don

> https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/

Don turned out to be a damp squib. Models, eh?

--
Spike

On 21/07/2023 16:03, N_Cook wrote:
> Firmed up ,first landfall over the UK for whatever is left of Don
>
> https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/
>

aggregator
https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/
and NHC upped peak to 60mph wind and then dropping to 35mph wind for the
UK landfall, current concensus, but with anamolously warm Atlantic and
confused jetstream, could also be upped if baroclinic enhancement
crossing the Atlantic

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

In message <u9gva9$3sf39$1@dont-email.me>, N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk>
writes
>On 21/07/2023 16:03, N_Cook wrote:
>> Firmed up ,first landfall over the UK for whatever is left of Don
>>
>> https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/
>>
>
>aggregator
>https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/
>and NHC upped peak to 60mph wind and then dropping to 35mph wind for
>the UK landfall, current concensus, but with anamolously warm Atlantic
>and confused jetstream, could also be upped if baroclinic enhancement
>crossing the Atlantic
>

What usually happens by the time ex-hurricanes reach the UK is that they
have filled sufficiently that the wind is no longer a problem but the
amount of rain can be.
--
John Hall "[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"

On 22/07/2023 18:57, John Hall wrote:
> In message <u9gva9$3sf39$1@dont-email.me>, N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk>
> writes
>> On 21/07/2023 16:03, N_Cook wrote:
>>> Firmed up ,first landfall over the UK for whatever is left of Don
>>>
>>> https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/
>>>
>>
>> aggregator
>> https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/
>> and NHC upped peak to 60mph wind and then dropping to 35mph wind for
>> the UK landfall, current concensus, but with anamolously warm Atlantic
>> and confused jetstream, could also be upped if baroclinic enhancement
>> crossing the Atlantic
>>
>
> What usually happens by the time ex-hurricanes reach the UK is that they
> have filled sufficiently that the wind is no longer a problem but the
> amount of rain can be.

I don't know about usually, it depend on the strength and disposition of
the jet wrt likes of Don. Currently no suggestion of baroclinic
enhancement, but it does happen to ex-TS, "current" jet weak and
fragmented .
But with the progressive strengthening of Don perhaps it could
cross-link to a reconfigured jet.
As far as potential marine flooding is concerned , a storm in the North
Sea /Baltic Sea is roughly timed for a west-going surge along the
English Channel to coincide with a surge from ex_Don , ie west-going
from wind driven sea into the south North Sea combining with an east
going surge at a high tide somewhere along the south coast .
If a TS strengthens it seems there can be an effect at distance on
pre-existing storms, ie bringing the "currently" baltic sea storm back
into the North Sea and perhaps strengthen its wind, so a double whammy.
Then intense rain can become a triple whammy from tide-blocking on the
seaward side of sea defences and rainfall flooding off high ground
unable to get into the sea.

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

On 22/07/2023 21:26, N_Cook wrote:
> On 22/07/2023 18:57, John Hall wrote:
>> In message <u9gva9$3sf39$1@dont-email.me>, N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk>
>> writes
>>> On 21/07/2023 16:03, N_Cook wrote:
>>>> Firmed up ,first landfall over the UK for whatever is left of Don
>>>>
>>>> https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/
>>>>
>>>
>>> aggregator
>>> https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/
>>> and NHC upped peak to 60mph wind and then dropping to 35mph wind for
>>> the UK landfall, current concensus, but with anamolously warm Atlantic
>>> and confused jetstream, could also be upped if baroclinic enhancement
>>> crossing the Atlantic
>>>
>>
>> What usually happens by the time ex-hurricanes reach the UK is that they
>> have filled sufficiently that the wind is no longer a problem but the
>> amount of rain can be.
>
> I don't know about usually, it depend on the strength and disposition of
> the jet wrt likes of Don. Currently no suggestion of baroclinic
> enhancement, but it does happen to ex-TS, "current" jet weak and
> fragmented .
> But with the progressive strengthening of Don perhaps it could
> cross-link to a reconfigured jet.
> As far as potential marine flooding is concerned , a storm in the North
> Sea /Baltic Sea is roughly timed for a west-going surge along the
> English Channel to coincide with a surge from ex_Don , ie west-going
> from wind driven sea into the south North Sea combining with an east
> going surge at a high tide somewhere along the south coast .
> If a TS strengthens it seems there can be an effect at distance on
> pre-existing storms, ie bringing the "currently" baltic sea storm back
> into the North Sea and perhaps strengthen its wind, so a double whammy.
> Then intense rain can become a triple whammy from tide-blocking on the
> seaward side of sea defences and rainfall flooding off high ground
> unable to get into the sea.
>

NHC upgraded to yet another high latitude initiated Atlantic hurricane
even if for only a day, must be all that elevated SST
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/230236.shtml?
and
https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

On 23/07/2023 09:24, N_Cook wrote:
> On 22/07/2023 21:26, N_Cook wrote:
>> On 22/07/2023 18:57, John Hall wrote:
>>> In message <u9gva9$3sf39$1@dont-email.me>, N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk>
>>> writes
>>>> On 21/07/2023 16:03, N_Cook wrote:
>>>>> Firmed up ,first landfall over the UK for whatever is left of Don
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> aggregator
>>>> https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/
>>>> and NHC upped peak to 60mph wind and then dropping to 35mph wind for
>>>> the UK landfall, current concensus, but with anamolously warm Atlantic
>>>> and confused jetstream, could also be upped if baroclinic enhancement
>>>> crossing the Atlantic
>>>>
>>>
>>> What usually happens by the time ex-hurricanes reach the UK is that they
>>> have filled sufficiently that the wind is no longer a problem but the
>>> amount of rain can be.
>>
>> I don't know about usually, it depend on the strength and disposition of
>> the jet wrt likes of Don. Currently no suggestion of baroclinic
>> enhancement, but it does happen to ex-TS, "current" jet weak and
>> fragmented .
>> But with the progressive strengthening of Don perhaps it could
>> cross-link to a reconfigured jet.
>> As far as potential marine flooding is concerned , a storm in the North
>> Sea /Baltic Sea is roughly timed for a west-going surge along the
>> English Channel to coincide with a surge from ex_Don , ie west-going
>> from wind driven sea into the south North Sea combining with an east
>> going surge at a high tide somewhere along the south coast .
>> If a TS strengthens it seems there can be an effect at distance on
>> pre-existing storms, ie bringing the "currently" baltic sea storm back
>> into the North Sea and perhaps strengthen its wind, so a double whammy.
>> Then intense rain can become a triple whammy from tide-blocking on the
>> seaward side of sea defences and rainfall flooding off high ground
>> unable to get into the sea.
>>
>
> NHC upgraded to yet another high latitude initiated Atlantic hurricane
> even if for only a day, must be all that elevated SST
> https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/230236.shtml?
> and
> https://www.cyclocane.com/don-spaghetti-models/
>

NHC making note of the longevity as a named storm but I'd have thought
its main feature was the latitude of status conversion from TS to
hurricane, even though short lived.

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>