Showing El Nino rise in the projection to 2050 this time.
First projected monthly occurance of 1.5 degC above pre-industrial temps
comes out as June 2028.
First projected monthly occurance of 2 degC above pre-industrial temps
comes out as in 2043.

updated data output on 14 Aug 2023
GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index
GHCN-v4 data
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Using offline javascript curvefitter at statpages.info
and curve types linear (no acceleration), exponential (increasing
acceleration), quadratic (constant acceleration), indicial (falling
acceleration)

best fit,by R^2, being indicial again, processing
the whole 247 point dataset from 2003.0

y= 0.537028 + 0.005995*x^1.386167

where x is year minus 2000, for post-Pinatubo 2003.0 start, avoiding
the 10 years of recovery of geodata after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, 6
figures retained for comparison by anyone else repeating this exercise.

for data to July 2023 with public output 14 Aug 2023
For 2050 , 1.89858 deg C minus 1.014 for year
23.5 of that curve , so +0.885 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.086168 deg C minus 1.014 , so +3.072 deg C

for data to June 2023 with public output 14 July 2023
For 2050 , 1.857 deg C minus 1.007 for year
23.5 of that curve , so +0.850 deg C above present
For 2100 , 3.928 deg C minus 1.007 , so +2.921 deg C

for data to May 2023 with public output June 2023
For 2050 , 1.857 deg C minus 0.9979 for year
23.0 of that curve , so 0.859 deg C above present
For 2100 , 3.902 deg C minus 0.9979 , so +2.904 deg C

for data to Apr 2023 with public output 12 May 2023
For 2050 , 1.854 deg C minus 0.9949 for year
23.0 of that curve , so 0.859 deg C above present
For 2100 , 3.908 deg C minus 0.9949 , so +2.913 deg C

for data to Mar 2023 with public output 13 Apr 2023
For 2050 , 1.878 deg C minus 0.9989 for year
23.0 of that curve , so 0.879 deg C above present
For 2100 ,3.999 deg C minus 0.9989 , so +3.000 deg C

for data to Feb 2023 with public output 14 Mar 2023
For 2050 , 1.821 deg C minus 0.989 for year
23.0 of that curve , so 0.831 deg C above present
For 2100 ,3.774 deg C minus 0.989 , so +2.784 deg C

for data to January 2023 with public output 14 Feb 2023
For 2050 , 1.846 deg C minus 0.9966 for year
23.0 (= decimal_year 2023 start)
of that curve , so 0.8494 deg C above present
For 2100 , 3.8444 deg C minus 0.9966 , so +2.8478 deg C
suggesting continued La Nina

for data to December with public output 12 Jan 2023
For 2050 , 1.8813 deg C minus 0.9677 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start)
of that curve , so 0.9136 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.0319 deg C minus 0.9677 , so +3.0642 deg C
suggesting continued La Nina

for data to November with public output 14 Dec 2022
For 2050 , 1.927 deg C minus 0.9724 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so 0.955 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.228 deg C minus 0.9724 , so +3.256 deg C
more than compensating negatively for last months determination,
returning to extended La Nina territory

for data to October with public output 15 Nov 2022
For 2050 , 1.998 deg C minus 0.9788 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so 1.018 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.550 deg C minus 0.9788 , so +3.571 deg C

for data to September with public output about 15 Oct 2022
For 2050 , 1.996 deg C minus 0.97800 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so 1.018 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.554 deg C minus 0.97800 , so +3.576 deg C
so going with continued La Nina

for data to August with public output about 14 Sep 2022
For 2050 , 2.036 deg C minus 0.98107 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so 1.055 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.741 deg C minus 0.98107 , so + 3.760

for data to July with public output about 12 Aug 2022
For 2050 , 2.032 deg C minus 0.982 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so 1.050 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.710 deg C minus 0.982 , so + 3.728

for data to June with public output about 15 July 2022
For 2050 , 2.084 deg C minus 0.985 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.099 deg C above present
For 2100 , 4.957 deg C minus 0.985 , so + 3.972

for data to May with public output about 15 June 2022
For 2050 , 2.133 deg C minus 0.987 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.146 deg C above present
For 2100 , 5.217 deg C minus 0.987 , so + 4.23

for data to April 2022 public output about 13 May 2022
For 2050 , 2.205 deg C minus 0.992 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.213 deg C above present
For 2100 , 5.569 deg C minus 0.992 , so + 4.577

for data to March 2022
For 2050 , 2.291 deg C minus 1.003 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.288 deg C above present
For 2100 , 5.984 deg C minus 1.003 , so + 4.981

For data to Feb 2022
For 2050 , 2.301 deg C minus 1.004 for 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
start) of that curve , so +1.297 deg C above present
For 2100 , 6.029 deg C minus 1.004 , so + 5.024

processing Jan 2022 output
For 2050 , 2.427 deg C minus 1.014 = 1.413
For 2100 , 6.70 deg C minus 1.014 = 5.686

For Nov 2021 output
2050 2.56 deg C minus 1.00 for 21.5 midyear as "present" ,=1.56
2100 6.90 deg C minus 1.00 = 5.90

First occurance of 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial
Determining the change of reference offset, from late 20C to pre-industrial.
Taking pre-industrial 1.06 degC to 2022.5, then
from the NASA table, mid 2022 taking average of the calendar year was
89.75 centi-Celcius cC, or 0.8975 deg C, giving a reference offset of
1.06- 0.8975 = 0.162 deg C.
The target temp in that listing would be 100*(1.5- 0.162) = 134 cC.
For the last 5 years in that table, the positive outlier wrt the average
of its year, averaged over the 5 years gives a +outlier value of 0.180
or 18 cC.
So what year does my curve give 1.34 -0.180 = 1.16 deg C,
and that comes out as in June 2028 ( 2027 was the year for this
occurance, in the news earlier in 2023).
For 2 deg C ,what year gives 1.66deg C from that curve and that is in 2043
--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

On Tuesday, August 15, 2023 at 2:10:48 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
> Showing El Nino rise in the projection to 2050 this time.
> First projected monthly occurance of 1.5 degC above pre-industrial temps
> comes out as June 2028.
> First projected monthly occurance of 2 degC above pre-industrial temps
> comes out as in 2043.
>
> updated data output on 14 Aug 2023
> GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index
> GHCN-v4 data
> https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
>
> Using offline javascript curvefitter at statpages.info
> and curve types linear (no acceleration), exponential (increasing
> acceleration), quadratic (constant acceleration), indicial (falling
> acceleration)
>
> best fit,by R^2, being indicial again, processing
> the whole 247 point dataset from 2003.0
>
> y= 0.537028 + 0.005995*x^1.386167
>
> where x is year minus 2000, for post-Pinatubo 2003.0 start, avoiding
> the 10 years of recovery of geodata after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, 6
> figures retained for comparison by anyone else repeating this exercise.
>
> for data to July 2023 with public output 14 Aug 2023
> For 2050 , 1.89858 deg C minus 1.014 for year
> 23.5 of that curve , so +0.885 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 4.086168 deg C minus 1.014 , so +3.072 deg C
>
> for data to June 2023 with public output 14 July 2023
> For 2050 , 1.857 deg C minus 1.007 for year
> 23.5 of that curve , so +0.850 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 3.928 deg C minus 1.007 , so +2.921 deg C
>
> for data to May 2023 with public output June 2023
> For 2050 , 1.857 deg C minus 0.9979 for year
> 23.0 of that curve , so 0.859 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 3.902 deg C minus 0.9979 , so +2.904 deg C
>
> for data to Apr 2023 with public output 12 May 2023
> For 2050 , 1.854 deg C minus 0.9949 for year
> 23.0 of that curve , so 0.859 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 3.908 deg C minus 0.9949 , so +2.913 deg C
>
> for data to Mar 2023 with public output 13 Apr 2023
> For 2050 , 1.878 deg C minus 0.9989 for year
> 23.0 of that curve , so 0.879 deg C above present
> For 2100 ,3.999 deg C minus 0.9989 , so +3.000 deg C
>
> for data to Feb 2023 with public output 14 Mar 2023
> For 2050 , 1.821 deg C minus 0.989 for year
> 23.0 of that curve , so 0.831 deg C above present
> For 2100 ,3.774 deg C minus 0.989 , so +2.784 deg C
>
> for data to January 2023 with public output 14 Feb 2023
> For 2050 , 1.846 deg C minus 0.9966 for year
> 23.0 (= decimal_year 2023 start)
> of that curve , so 0.8494 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 3.8444 deg C minus 0.9966 , so +2.8478 deg C
> suggesting continued La Nina
>
> for data to December with public output 12 Jan 2023
> For 2050 , 1.8813 deg C minus 0.9677 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
> start)
> of that curve , so 0.9136 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 4.0319 deg C minus 0.9677 , so +3.0642 deg C
> suggesting continued La Nina
>
> for data to November with public output 14 Dec 2022
> For 2050 , 1.927 deg C minus 0.9724 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
> start) of that curve , so 0.955 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 4.228 deg C minus 0.9724 , so +3.256 deg C
> more than compensating negatively for last months determination,
> returning to extended La Nina territory
>
> for data to October with public output 15 Nov 2022
> For 2050 , 1.998 deg C minus 0.9788 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
> start) of that curve , so 1.018 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 4.550 deg C minus 0.9788 , so +3.571 deg C
>
> for data to September with public output about 15 Oct 2022
> For 2050 , 1.996 deg C minus 0.97800 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
> start) of that curve , so 1.018 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 4.554 deg C minus 0.97800 , so +3.576 deg C
> so going with continued La Nina
>
> for data to August with public output about 14 Sep 2022
> For 2050 , 2.036 deg C minus 0.98107 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
> start) of that curve , so 1.055 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 4.741 deg C minus 0.98107 , so + 3.760
>
> for data to July with public output about 12 Aug 2022
> For 2050 , 2.032 deg C minus 0.982 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
> start) of that curve , so 1.050 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 4.710 deg C minus 0.982 , so + 3.728
>
> for data to June with public output about 15 July 2022
> For 2050 , 2.084 deg C minus 0.985 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
> start) of that curve , so +1.099 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 4.957 deg C minus 0.985 , so + 3.972
>
> for data to May with public output about 15 June 2022
> For 2050 , 2.133 deg C minus 0.987 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
> start) of that curve , so +1.146 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 5.217 deg C minus 0.987 , so + 4.23
>
> for data to April 2022 public output about 13 May 2022
> For 2050 , 2.205 deg C minus 0.992 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
> start) of that curve , so +1.213 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 5.569 deg C minus 0.992 , so + 4.577
>
> for data to March 2022
> For 2050 , 2.291 deg C minus 1.003 for year 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
> start) of that curve , so +1.288 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 5.984 deg C minus 1.003 , so + 4.981
>
> For data to Feb 2022
> For 2050 , 2.301 deg C minus 1.004 for 22.0 (= decimal_year 2022
> start) of that curve , so +1.297 deg C above present
> For 2100 , 6.029 deg C minus 1.004 , so + 5.024
>
> processing Jan 2022 output
> For 2050 , 2.427 deg C minus 1.014 = 1.413
> For 2100 , 6.70 deg C minus 1.014 = 5.686
>
> For Nov 2021 output
> 2050 2.56 deg C minus 1.00 for 21.5 midyear as "present" ,=1.56
> 2100 6.90 deg C minus 1.00 = 5.90
>
> First occurance of 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial
> Determining the change of reference offset, from late 20C to pre-industrial.
> Taking pre-industrial 1.06 degC to 2022.5, then
> from the NASA table, mid 2022 taking average of the calendar year was
> 89.75 centi-Celcius cC, or 0.8975 deg C, giving a reference offset of
> 1.06- 0.8975 = 0.162 deg C.
> The target temp in that listing would be 100*(1.5- 0.162) = 134 cC.
> For the last 5 years in that table, the positive outlier wrt the average
> of its year, averaged over the 5 years gives a +outlier value of 0.180
> or 18 cC.
> So what year does my curve give 1.34 -0.180 = 1.16 deg C,
> and that comes out as in June 2028 ( 2027 was the year for this
> occurance, in the news earlier in 2023).
> For 2 deg C ,what year gives 1.66deg C from that curve and that is in 2043
> --
> Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
> <http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

Agreed. There has definitely been an acceleration in GW since the late 1970's. There may well be a further acceleration happening recently, as your date suggests. Worrying.

On 15/08/2023 14:39, Paul from Llanmaes wrote:
> Agreed. There has definitely been an acceleration in GW since the late 1970's. There may well be a further acceleration happening recently, as your date suggests. Worrying.
>

One saving grace, it could hyave been exponential curve type being the
best fit.

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>