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aus+uk / uk.sci.weather / [ CC ] Global Sea Level Rise from altimetry

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o [ CC ] Global Sea Level Rise from altimetryN_Cook

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[ CC ] Global Sea Level Rise from altimetry

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From: diverse@tcp.co.uk (N_Cook)
Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Subject: [ CC ] Global Sea Level Rise from altimetry
Date: Sat, 09 Sep 2023 09:54:23 +0100
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 by: N_Cook - Sat, 9 Sep 2023 08:54 UTC

Still very slow increasing global SLR.
Latest output 09 Sep 2023 data to 2023.580509 (30 July 2023).
Indicial curve fit still the best fit and the century projection curve
y = 2.544610 + 0.097070*x^1.413971

y is global SLR in Aviso terms and x is year minus 2000, 6dp figures
retained for anyone else wishing to repeat/confirm these results.
To 2100 processing all the data each time ,from 2003.0 to avoid
post-Pinatubo global geodata stabilisation ,757 datapoints, SLR of 67.86 cm

Recent history of these processed Aviso 10 day outputs , after a very
long run of -going values , the 24 Dec 2022 one, the first regular 10
day whole-earth-orbits scan cycle Aviso output, started going positive
but then continued negative until July 2023 with El Nino kicking in.

Latest data-point date, 2100 projected value
24 Dec 2022, 70.011cm
03 Jan 2023, 70.008
13 Jan 2023, 70.07
23 Jan 2023, 70.08
02 Feb 2023, 69.94 (- 0.14)
22 Feb 2023, 69.45 (-0.49)
03 Mar 2023, 69.33 (-0.12)
14 Mar 2023, 69.31 (-0.02)
24 Mar 2023, 69.17 (-0.14)
03 Apr 2023, 68.84cm (-0.33)
22 Apr 2023, 68.05 (-0.79)
02 May 2023, 67.82 (-0.23)
12 May 2023, 67.82 ( +/-0.0)
22 May 2023, 67.800 ( -0.02 cm)
01 June 2023, 67.729 (-0.07cm
01 July 2023 , 67.479 (- 0.25cm)
11 July 2023, 67.694 (+0.21cm)
21 July 2023, 67.807 (+0.11cm)
30 July 2023, 67.862 (+0.06cm)

From that curve for the last year 2022.5 to 2023.5,
annual global SLR of
5.03 mm and locally for South Hampshire UK , sinking
from post-glacial isostatic counter rebound by about 1.7mm/year, (minus
the 0.3mm/yr GIA included in the Aviso
reference figures) gives 6.43mm/year or 1/4 inch per year for the Solent
SLR, so
about half a millimetre a month local SLR.
Earlier results on the URL below. Being over-run by a very large
increase in local UK mean sea level of about 2cm in the last year. No
academic reporting of that and no reply from any of the UK and world
experts on mean sea level and explantion. I suspect with slowing of AMOC
and Greenland meltwater, the deep cold return path is not up to the job
and water is building up in the NE Atlantic.
A slowing of AMOC from the principle that reductions in the amount of
Antarctic bottom water reaching the ocean floor increases sea levels
because the warmer water that replaces it takes up more space.
Analysing the red/blue difference of the Newlyn residuals over time
https://ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Newlyn&chrt=3
they should track together.
Similar separation for all other UK ports and in their recent archives.
It would be convenient to say there is a problem with the Exeter Met
Office/NTSLF big-data surge predictor of the blue or NTSLF tidecurves
underlying the red. But this UK MSL anomaly is showing up with similar
values in two other independent monitoring processes, independent of
NTSLF and independent of each other. Unknown to me whether the same
anomaly is showing up in Scandinavia or Iceland, or France say.

This global SLR curve fit using
ftp://ftp.aviso.altimetry.fr/pub/oceano/AVISO/indicators/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_AVISO_GIA_Adjust_Filter2m.txt
data from
http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level/products-images.html

and off-line curve-fitter from
<statpages.info/nonlin.html>

For NOAA ENSO ONI and BoM ENSO predictions/evaluations, about a 6 month
lag between ONI mid neutral and most representative SLR corresponding to
mid ENSO cycle , the best SLR
projection should be for an Aviso data output in about December 2023 .
The best projection from the previous mid cycle ENSO neutral, delayed
about 6 months was for Aviso data to 2020.702868 and projection to
80.4cm in 2100.

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

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