Many indications that this developing El Niño event will be a very big one and be long-lasting. The effects on Global temperatures could well raise them to levels never experienced in recorded history and the deadly effects on people in vulnerable areas could be more than we've experienced so far. Truly scary (though we'll probably be pretty OK in our mid-latitude, temperate western margin climate. It might even make the sensible climate sceptics begin to change their minds.

No chance for deniers. They'll believe humans are not responsible until they shuffle off their mortal coil, no matter what happens - or they'll just fade away quietly, as they realise how wrong was what they were doing, hoping everyone will forget the idiocy they spouted over their years.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

On 07/09/2023 16:00, Paul from Llanmaes wrote:
> Many indications that this developing El Niño event will be a very big one and be long-lasting. The effects on Global temperatures could well raise them to levels never experienced in recorded history and the deadly effects on people in vulnerable areas could be more than we've experienced so far. Truly scary (though we'll probably be pretty OK in our mid-latitude, temperate western margin climate. It might even make the sensible climate sceptics begin to change their minds.
>
> No chance for deniers. They'll believe humans are not responsible until they shuffle off their mortal coil, no matter what happens - or they'll just fade away quietly, as they realise how wrong was what they were doing, hoping everyone will forget the idiocy they spouted over their years.
>
> https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
>

Hurricane Lee looks to fill the bill , different ocean, US Navy going
for 208 knots or 230mph, more like jetstream or Jupiter winds

https://www.cyclocane.com/lee-spaghetti-models/

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

On Thu, 7 Sep 2023 08:00:37 -0700 (PDT), Paul from Llanmaes
<pauljgarvey03@gmail.com> wrote:

Many indications that this developing El Niño event will be a very big
one and be long-lasting. The effects on Global temperatures could well
raise them to levels never experienced in recorded history and the
deadly effects on people in vulnerable areas could be more than we've
experienced so far. Truly scary (though we'll probably be pretty OK in
our mid-latitude, temperate western margin climate. It might even make
the sensible climate sceptics begin to change their minds.

All of this ^^ is your speculation, NONE of it is FACT

On Friday, September 8, 2023 at 11:36:01 AM UTC+1, Spike wrote:
> JD Hants <JD Hants <>> wrote:
> > On Thu, 7 Sep 2023 08:00:37 -0700 (PDT), Paul from Llanmaes
> > <pauljg...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > Many indications that this developing El Niño event will be a very big
> > one and be long-lasting. The effects on Global temperatures could well
> > raise them to levels never experienced in recorded history and the
> > deadly effects on people in vulnerable areas could be more than we've
> > experienced so far. Truly scary (though we'll probably be pretty OK in
> > our mid-latitude, temperate western margin climate. It might even make
> > the sensible climate sceptics begin to change their minds.
> > All of this ^^ is your speculation, NONE of it is FACT
>
> Paul Once of Dawlish must do what he’s best at…which seems to be a case of
> piling supposition upon supposition. When one has suffered 30 years of
> climate doom-mongering, none of which have turned up, it gets a little
> tiresome.
>
> I believe I once asked him to show where the El Niño signal was in the last
> several thousand years temperature record - I didn’t get an answer. Such an
> analysis would be a routine task, and for all we know may have been done -
> but if there was no such signal, it’s unsurprising it wasn’t published.
>
> --
> Spike

So where's your analysis Spike?

Keith (Southend)

Keith Harris <keith.r.e.harris@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Friday, September 8, 2023 at 11:36:01 AM UTC+1, Spike wrote:
>> JD Hants <JD Hants <>> wrote:
>>> On Thu, 7 Sep 2023 08:00:37 -0700 (PDT), Paul from Llanmaes
>>> <pauljg...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> Many indications that this developing El Niño event will be a very big
>>> one and be long-lasting. The effects on Global temperatures could well
>>> raise them to levels never experienced in recorded history and the
>>> deadly effects on people in vulnerable areas could be more than we've
>>> experienced so far. Truly scary (though we'll probably be pretty OK in
>>> our mid-latitude, temperate western margin climate. It might even make
>>> the sensible climate sceptics begin to change their minds.
>>> All of this ^^ is your speculation, NONE of it is FACT
>>
>> Paul Once of Dawlish must do what he’s best at…which seems to be a case of
>> piling supposition upon supposition. When one has suffered 30 years of
>> climate doom-mongering, none of which have turned up, it gets a little
>> tiresome.
>>
>> I believe I once asked him to show where the El Niño signal was in the last
>> several thousand years temperature record - I didn’t get an answer. Such an
>> analysis would be a routine task, and for all we know may have been done -
>> but if there was no such signal, it’s unsurprising it wasn’t published.
>>
>> --
>> Spike
>
> So where's your analysis Spike?
>
> Keith (Southend)

I’m not the one claiming doom and gloom from this phenomenon; I’m asking
that those who believe it do do some basic science. Oh! Sorry! They claim
that the science is settled. So that’s that.

--
Spike

JD Hants <JD Hants <>> wrote:
> On Thu, 7 Sep 2023 08:00:37 -0700 (PDT), Paul from Llanmaes
> <pauljgarvey03@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Many indications that this developing El Niño event will be a very big
> one and be long-lasting. The effects on Global temperatures could well
> raise them to levels never experienced in recorded history and the
> deadly effects on people in vulnerable areas could be more than we've
> experienced so far. Truly scary (though we'll probably be pretty OK in
> our mid-latitude, temperate western margin climate. It might even make
> the sensible climate sceptics begin to change their minds.

> All of this ^^ is your speculation, NONE of it is FACT

Paul Once of Dawlish must do what he’s best at…which seems to be a case of
piling supposition upon supposition. When one has suffered 30 years of
climate doom-mongering, none of which have turned up, it gets a little
tiresome.

I believe I once asked him to show where the El Niño signal was in the last
several thousand years temperature record - I didn’t get an answer. Such an
analysis would be a routine task, and for all we know may have been done -
but if there was no such signal, it’s unsurprising it wasn’t published.

--
Spike

On 08/09/2023 10:03, JD Hants wrote:
> On Thu, 7 Sep 2023 08:00:37 -0700 (PDT), Paul from Llanmaes
> <pauljgarvey03@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Many indications that this developing El Niño event will be a very big
> one and be long-lasting. The effects on Global temperatures could well
> raise them to levels never experienced in recorded history and the
> deadly effects on people in vulnerable areas could be more than we've
> experienced so far. Truly scary (though we'll probably be pretty OK in
> our mid-latitude, temperate western margin climate. It might even make
> the sensible climate sceptics begin to change their minds.
>
> All of this ^^ is your speculation, NONE of it is FACT
>

Depends how much faith you have in maths.
I'm still going with 2.8 deg C maxing out in 2023, from the all rather
too perfect mathematical progression taken from the
NOAA ONI listing of the highest peaks of El Ninos since 1950s, ignoring
the minor ones along the way, no idea about duration, looks like
progression to longer La Nina parts of the cycling.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

1957, +1.8 deg C maximum
1965, +2.0 max
1972, +2.1 max
1982, +2.2 max
1997, +2.4 max
2015, +2.6 max
predicting?
2023, +2.8 max

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

On Friday, September 8, 2023 at 6:26:52 AM UTC-5, N_Cook wrote:
> On 08/09/2023 10:03, JD Hants wrote:
> > On Thu, 7 Sep 2023 08:00:37 -0700 (PDT), Paul from Llanmaes
> > <pauljg...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > Many indications that this developing El Niño event will be a very big
> > one and be long-lasting. The effects on Global temperatures could well
> > raise them to levels never experienced in recorded history and the
> > deadly effects on people in vulnerable areas could be more than we've
> > experienced so far. Truly scary (though we'll probably be pretty OK in
> > our mid-latitude, temperate western margin climate. It might even make
> > the sensible climate sceptics begin to change their minds.
> >
> > All of this ^^ is your speculation, NONE of it is FACT
> >
> Depends how much faith you have in maths.
> I'm still going with 2.8 deg C maxing out in 2023, from the all rather
> too perfect mathematical progression taken from the
> NOAA ONI listing of the highest peaks of El Ninos since 1950s, ignoring
> the minor ones along the way, no idea about duration, looks like
> progression to longer La Nina parts of the cycling.
>
> https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
>
> 1957, +1.8 deg C maximum
> 1965, +2.0 max
> 1972, +2.1 max
> 1982, +2.2 max
> 1997, +2.4 max
> 2015, +2.6 max
> predicting?
> 2023, +2.8 max
> --
> Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
> <http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

" ignoring the minor ones along the way"

You can't just ignore those, though. And you can't ignore the different circumstances of past El Niño episodes. For example, the 1997 and 2015 events were both concurrent with a positive PDO, and it's harder to achieve such a warm El Niño with a negative PDO (as we have now). 1994 and 2004 are about the only years I can find with both positive El Niño and negative PDO heading through autumn and into winter (as we have now, albeit becoming less negative) - and they topped out at +1.1 C and +0.7 C respectively. In addition, 1994 was also a year with a cool Atlantic / negative AMO, so analogues are like hen's teeth.

Anyway, notwithstanding the BoM's bullish predictions, this El Niño is more likely to peak around +2.0 C for the Niño 3.4 region... although these are unprecedented times, so let's see what happens by November / December.

On Friday, September 8, 2023 at 5:36:01 AM UTC-5, Spike wrote:
> JD Hants <JD Hants <>> wrote:
> > On Thu, 7 Sep 2023 08:00:37 -0700 (PDT), Paul from Llanmaes
> > <pauljg...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > Many indications that this developing El Niño event will be a very big
> > one and be long-lasting. The effects on Global temperatures could well
> > raise them to levels never experienced in recorded history and the
> > deadly effects on people in vulnerable areas could be more than we've
> > experienced so far. Truly scary (though we'll probably be pretty OK in
> > our mid-latitude, temperate western margin climate. It might even make
> > the sensible climate sceptics begin to change their minds.
> > All of this ^^ is your speculation, NONE of it is FACT
>
> Paul Once of Dawlish must do what he’s best at…which seems to be a case of
> piling supposition upon supposition. When one has suffered 30 years of
> climate doom-mongering, none of which have turned up, it gets a little
> tiresome.
>
> I believe I once asked him to show where the El Niño signal was in the last
> several thousand years temperature record - I didn’t get an answer. Such an
> analysis would be a routine task, and for all we know may have been done -
> but if there was no such signal, it’s unsurprising it wasn’t published.
>
> --
> Spike

"A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future climate change": https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/handle/2292/13602

"Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium": https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1086

Stephen Davenport <stephen@davenport.net> wrote:
> On Friday, September 8, 2023 at 5:36:01 AM UTC-5, Spike wrote:
>> JD Hants <JD Hants <>> wrote:
>>> On Thu, 7 Sep 2023 08:00:37 -0700 (PDT), Paul from Llanmaes
>>> <pauljg...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> Many indications that this developing El Niño event will be a very big
>>> one and be long-lasting. The effects on Global temperatures could well
>>> raise them to levels never experienced in recorded history and the
>>> deadly effects on people in vulnerable areas could be more than we've
>>> experienced so far. Truly scary (though we'll probably be pretty OK in
>>> our mid-latitude, temperate western margin climate. It might even make
>>> the sensible climate sceptics begin to change their minds.
>>> All of this ^^ is your speculation, NONE of it is FACT
>>
>> Paul Once of Dawlish must do what he’s best at…which seems to be a case of
>> piling supposition upon supposition. When one has suffered 30 years of
>> climate doom-mongering, none of which have turned up, it gets a little
>> tiresome.
>>
>> I believe I once asked him to show where the El Niño signal was in the last
>> several thousand years temperature record - I didn’t get an answer. Such an
>> analysis would be a routine task, and for all we know may have been done -
>> but if there was no such signal, it’s unsurprising it wasn’t published.
>>
>> --
>> Spike
>
>
> "A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future
> climate change": https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/handle/2292/13602
>
> "Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium":
> https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1086

Both of those are abstracts only, and don’t show the graphical signal.

--
Spike

On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 4:58:57 PM UTC+1, Spike wrote:
> Stephen Davenport <ste...@davenport.net> wrote:
> > On Friday, September 8, 2023 at 5:36:01 AM UTC-5, Spike wrote:
> >> JD Hants <JD Hants <>> wrote:
> >>> On Thu, 7 Sep 2023 08:00:37 -0700 (PDT), Paul from Llanmaes
> >>> <pauljg...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>>
> >>> Many indications that this developing El Niño event will be a very big
> >>> one and be long-lasting. The effects on Global temperatures could well
> >>> raise them to levels never experienced in recorded history and the
> >>> deadly effects on people in vulnerable areas could be more than we've
> >>> experienced so far. Truly scary (though we'll probably be pretty OK in
> >>> our mid-latitude, temperate western margin climate. It might even make
> >>> the sensible climate sceptics begin to change their minds.
> >>> All of this ^^ is your speculation, NONE of it is FACT
> >>
> >> Paul Once of Dawlish must do what he’s best at…which seems to be a case of
> >> piling supposition upon supposition. When one has suffered 30 years of
> >> climate doom-mongering, none of which have turned up, it gets a little
> >> tiresome.
> >>
> >> I believe I once asked him to show where the El Niño signal was in the last
> >> several thousand years temperature record - I didn’t get an answer. Such an
> >> analysis would be a routine task, and for all we know may have been done -
> >> but if there was no such signal, it’s unsurprising it wasn’t published.
> >>
> >> --
> >> Spike
> >
> >
> > "A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future
> > climate change": https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/handle/2292/13602
> >
> > "Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium":
> > https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1086
> Both of those are abstracts only, and don’t show the graphical signal.
>
> --
> Spike

It just gets better.

You did get an answer. It's an oscillation. There is no 'signal'. You were, as usual, too stupid to understand what that means, so I've told you again..

You still won't understand... 😂😂😂😂😂

On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 4:01:14 PM UTC+1, Stephen Davenport wrote:
> On Friday, September 8, 2023 at 6:26:52 AM UTC-5, N_Cook wrote:
> > On 08/09/2023 10:03, JD Hants wrote:
> > > On Thu, 7 Sep 2023 08:00:37 -0700 (PDT), Paul from Llanmaes
> > > <pauljg...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > Many indications that this developing El Niño event will be a very big
> > > one and be long-lasting. The effects on Global temperatures could well
> > > raise them to levels never experienced in recorded history and the
> > > deadly effects on people in vulnerable areas could be more than we've
> > > experienced so far. Truly scary (though we'll probably be pretty OK in
> > > our mid-latitude, temperate western margin climate. It might even make
> > > the sensible climate sceptics begin to change their minds.
> > >
> > > All of this ^^ is your speculation, NONE of it is FACT
> > >
> > Depends how much faith you have in maths.
> > I'm still going with 2.8 deg C maxing out in 2023, from the all rather
> > too perfect mathematical progression taken from the
> > NOAA ONI listing of the highest peaks of El Ninos since 1950s, ignoring
> > the minor ones along the way, no idea about duration, looks like
> > progression to longer La Nina parts of the cycling.
> >
> > https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
> >
> > 1957, +1.8 deg C maximum
> > 1965, +2.0 max
> > 1972, +2.1 max
> > 1982, +2.2 max
> > 1997, +2.4 max
> > 2015, +2.6 max
> > predicting?
> > 2023, +2.8 max
> > --
> > Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
> > <http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>
>
>
> " ignoring the minor ones along the way"
> You can't just ignore those, though. And you can't ignore the different circumstances of past El Niño episodes. For example, the 1997 and 2015 events were both concurrent with a positive PDO, and it's harder to achieve such a warm El Niño with a negative PDO (as we have now). 1994 and 2004 are about the only years I can find with both positive El Niño and negative PDO heading through autumn and into winter (as we have now, albeit becoming less negative) - and they topped out at +1.1 C and +0.7 C respectively. In addition, 1994 was also a year with a cool Atlantic / negative AMO, so analogues are like hen's teeth.
>
> Anyway, notwithstanding the BoM's bullish predictions, this El Niño is more likely to peak around +2.0 C for the Niño 3.4 region... although these are unprecedented times, so let's see what happens by November / December.

I just replied to him Stephen, giving him the same answer I gave him before.. Then I thought, 'this is just a waste of time, as he won't understand it this time, either', so I deleted it.

I'd rather just laugh at him and enjoy the show. 😂

On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 10:58:57 AM UTC-5, Spike wrote:
> Stephen Davenport <ste...@davenport.net> wrote:
> > On Friday, September 8, 2023 at 5:36:01 AM UTC-5, Spike wrote:
> >> JD Hants <JD Hants <>> wrote:
> >>> On Thu, 7 Sep 2023 08:00:37 -0700 (PDT), Paul from Llanmaes
> >>> <pauljg...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>>
> >>> Many indications that this developing El Niño event will be a very big
> >>> one and be long-lasting. The effects on Global temperatures could well
> >>> raise them to levels never experienced in recorded history and the
> >>> deadly effects on people in vulnerable areas could be more than we've
> >>> experienced so far. Truly scary (though we'll probably be pretty OK in
> >>> our mid-latitude, temperate western margin climate. It might even make
> >>> the sensible climate sceptics begin to change their minds.
> >>> All of this ^^ is your speculation, NONE of it is FACT
> >>
> >> Paul Once of Dawlish must do what he’s best at…which seems to be a case of
> >> piling supposition upon supposition. When one has suffered 30 years of
> >> climate doom-mongering, none of which have turned up, it gets a little
> >> tiresome.
> >>
> >> I believe I once asked him to show where the El Niño signal was in the last
> >> several thousand years temperature record - I didn’t get an answer. Such an
> >> analysis would be a routine task, and for all we know may have been done -
> >> but if there was no such signal, it’s unsurprising it wasn’t published.
> >>
> >> --
> >> Spike
> >
> >
> > "A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future
> > climate change": https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/handle/2292/13602
> >
> > "Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium":
> > https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1086
> Both of those are abstracts only, and don’t show the graphical signal.
>
> --
> Spike

If you are interested then the full texts are readily available. I considered that you might delve into the article that notes "...a number of percentile-based palaeoclimate reconstructions were used to isolate signals of both phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)" to investigate "where the El Niño signal was" (although that's a rather vague query - I'm not sure what the goal is). That ought to pique your interest, I thought. Of course, that would depend on a good-faith discussion. You can buy the article for under $40 here: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-008-9476-z or rent it for $15 here: https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/springer-journal/a-history-of-enso-events-since-a-d-1525-implications-for-future-G66UTPkypM?key=springer. There's even a free trial so you could probably see it for gratis. Or here's a press release regarding a 2011 paper that might tickle your fancy: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/890195

Stephen Davenport <stephen@davenport.net> wrote:
> On Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 10:58:57 AM UTC-5, Spike wrote:
>> Stephen Davenport <ste...@davenport.net> wrote:
>>> On Friday, September 8, 2023 at 5:36:01 AM UTC-5, Spike wrote:
>>>> JD Hants <JD Hants <>> wrote:
>>>>> On Thu, 7 Sep 2023 08:00:37 -0700 (PDT), Paul from Llanmaes
>>>>> <pauljg...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Many indications that this developing El Niño event will be a very big
>>>>> one and be long-lasting. The effects on Global temperatures could well
>>>>> raise them to levels never experienced in recorded history and the
>>>>> deadly effects on people in vulnerable areas could be more than we've
>>>>> experienced so far. Truly scary (though we'll probably be pretty OK in
>>>>> our mid-latitude, temperate western margin climate. It might even make
>>>>> the sensible climate sceptics begin to change their minds.
>>>>> All of this ^^ is your speculation, NONE of it is FACT
>>>>
>>>> Paul Once of Dawlish must do what he’s best at…which seems to be a case of
>>>> piling supposition upon supposition. When one has suffered 30 years of
>>>> climate doom-mongering, none of which have turned up, it gets a little
>>>> tiresome.
>>>>
>>>> I believe I once asked him to show where the El Niño signal was in the last
>>>> several thousand years temperature record - I didn’t get an answer. Such an
>>>> analysis would be a routine task, and for all we know may have been done -
>>>> but if there was no such signal, it’s unsurprising it wasn’t published.
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Spike
>>>
>>>
>>> "A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future
>>> climate change": https://researchspace.auckland.ac.nz/handle/2292/13602
>>>
>>> "Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium":
>>> https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1086
>> Both of those are abstracts only, and don’t show the graphical signal.
>>
>> --
>> Spike
>
> If you are interested then the full texts are readily available. I
> considered that you might delve into the article that notes "...a number of
> percentile-based palaeoclimate reconstructions were used to isolate
> signals of both phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)" to
> investigate "where the El Niño signal was" (although that's a rather
> vague query - I'm not sure what the goal is). That ought to pique your
> interest, I thought. Of course, that would depend on a good-faith
> discussion. You can buy the article for under $40 here:
> https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-008-9476-z or rent it
> for $15 her
> : https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/springer-journal/a-history-of-enso-events-since-a-d-1525-implications-for-future-G66UTPkypM?key=springer.
> There's even a free trial so you could probably see it for gratis. Or
> here's a press release regarding a 2011 paper that might tickle your fancy:
> https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/890195

Thanks for the info and links, the only part I could see was the abstract
given by the first link. I don’t sign up for ‘accounts’, so the other
papers remain unread.

What I am after, and the Springer paper might be useful here, is to find a
paper that has taken the global overall temperature record, and broken down
that time-domain overall waveform into its constituent parts, by
transforming that into the frequency domain.

This can be expected show the frequency of the each of the constituent
components that make up the global temperature record.

For example (and I’m making things up here for illustrative purposes)
suppose that the overall temperature record is made up of a 7-year ENSO
cycle, a 22-year sunspot cycle, a 200-year cycle from an unknown cause, and
a 2000-year cycle that also has an unknown cause.

The transformation from the time-domain to the frequency domain, if the TD
data goes back far enough, should show signals at frequencies corresponding
to the 7, 22, 200, and perhaps 2000
year cycles. Other frequency components that are so far unsuspected, might
also show up.

Having got a FD spectrum, amplitudes and frequencies can be plugged back in
to the transform process at will, to give a temperature record that can be
run back and forth in time to cover gaps in the historic record, or predict
future trends.

It’s a powerful technique, but not one I have seen mentioned in the climate
scenario, hence my question.

--
Spike