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aus+uk / uk.sci.weather / [ CC ] Monitoring 'progress' to 2050/2100 : Global SST anomaly

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o [ CC ] Monitoring 'progress' to 2050/2100 : Global SST anomalyN_Cook

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[ CC ] Monitoring 'progress' to 2050/2100 : Global SST anomaly

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From: diverse@tcp.co.uk (N_Cook)
Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Subject: [ CC ] Monitoring 'progress' to 2050/2100 : Global SST anomaly
Date: Mon, 18 Sep 2023 12:12:08 +0100
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 by: N_Cook - Mon, 18 Sep 2023 11:12 UTC

Data downloaded 17 Sep 2023 from
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst4/data/download.html
selecting
HadSST.4.0.1.0_monthly_GLOBE.csv

Just this year data as quite dramatic considering on a global scale,
near enough anomaly doubling over 8 months and large projected increases
just from recent couple of months increments in global SST, and not even
exponential curve-fit.
2023.0833, 0.66273
2023.1667, 0.66657
2023.2500, 0.78990
2023.3333, 0.84818
2023.4167, 0.82701
2023.5000, 0.9188
2023.5833, 1.0661
2023.6667, 1.1071

SST anamoly wrt the 1961 to 1990 average.
Using 248 datapoints from 2003.0 to 2023.6667 to avoid the 10 year
recovery period of geodata post Mt Pinatubo eruption.
Using offline javascript curvefitter at statpages.info
and curve types linear (no acceleration), exponential (increasing
acceleration), quadratic (constant acceleration), indicial (falling
acceleration)
Best fit indicial and 6 figures retained for anyone else
repeating/checking this processing

y= 0.383174 + 0.001021*x^1.895796
where y is Hadley SST anomaly in deg C and x is year minus 2000
Projected to 2050, +2.081129 deg C
to 2100, +6.701729 deg C

previous month processing for up to July 2023 data
Projected to 2050, +1.940949 deg C
to 2100, +5.844458 deg C

previous month processing for up to June 2023 data
y= 0.377054 +0.001667*x ^1.729662
Projected to 2050, 1.824424 deg C
to 2100, 5.177257 deg C

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

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