The El Niño is likely to persist through the next boreal spring. Also possible that we will see the first month with a +1.5C temperature anomaly, over this next year, given that August was +1.24C, El Niño conditions have only been prevalent for a short time and the El Niño has not technically started yet.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Paul from Llanmaes <pauljgarvey03@gmail.com> wrote:

> The El Niño is likely to persist through the next boreal spring. Also
> possible that we will see the first month with a +1.5C temperature
> anomaly, over this next year, given that August was +1.24C, El Niño
> conditions have only been prevalent for a short time and the El Niño has
> not technically started yet.
>
> https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The term is closely associated with the work of mathematician and
meteorologist Edward Norton Lorenz. He noted that the butterfly effect is
derived from the metaphorical example of the details of a tornado (the
exact time of formation, the exact path taken) being influenced by minor
perturbations such as a distant butterfly flapping its wings several weeks
earlier.

Lorenz originally used a seagull causing a storm but was persuaded to make
it more poetic with the use of a butterfly and tornado by 1972.[1][2]

He discovered the effect when he observed runs of his weather model with
initial condition data that were rounded in a seemingly inconsequential
manner. He noted that the weather model would fail to reproduce the results
of runs with the unrounded initial condition data. A very small change in
initial conditions had created a significantly different outcome.[3]

The idea that small causes may have large effects in weather was earlier
acknowledged by French mathematician and engineer Henri Poincaré.

American mathematician and philosopher Norbert Wiener also contributed to
this theory.

Lorenz's work placed the concept of instability of the Earth's atmosphere
onto a quantitative base and linked the concept of instability to the
properties of large classes of dynamic systems which are undergoing
nonlinear dynamics and deterministic chaos.[4]

<https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect>

--
Spike

On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 10:02:28 AM UTC+1, Spike wrote:
> Paul from Llanmaes <pauljg...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > The El Niño is likely to persist through the next boreal spring. Also
> > possible that we will see the first month with a +1.5C temperature
> > anomaly, over this next year, given that August was +1.24C, El Niño
> > conditions have only been prevalent for a short time and the El Niño has
> > not technically started yet.
> >
> > https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
> The term is closely associated with the work of mathematician and
> meteorologist Edward Norton Lorenz. He noted that the butterfly effect is
> derived from the metaphorical example of the details of a tornado (the
> exact time of formation, the exact path taken) being influenced by minor
> perturbations such as a distant butterfly flapping its wings several weeks
> earlier.
>
> Lorenz originally used a seagull causing a storm but was persuaded to make
> it more poetic with the use of a butterfly and tornado by 1972.[1][2]
>
> He discovered the effect when he observed runs of his weather model with
> initial condition data that were rounded in a seemingly inconsequential
> manner. He noted that the weather model would fail to reproduce the results
> of runs with the unrounded initial condition data. A very small change in
> initial conditions had created a significantly different outcome.[3]
>
> The idea that small causes may have large effects in weather was earlier
> acknowledged by French mathematician and engineer Henri Poincaré.
>
> American mathematician and philosopher Norbert Wiener also contributed to
> this theory.
>
> Lorenz's work placed the concept of instability of the Earth's atmosphere
> onto a quantitative base and linked the concept of instability to the
> properties of large classes of dynamic systems which are undergoing
> nonlinear dynamics and deterministic chaos.[4]
>
> <https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect>
>
> --
> Spike

Can you get more stupid, or have you not reached your limits yet.

Do keep posting. Your lack of understanding and your actual ignorance is astounding. 😂😂😂😂😂

Paul from Llanmaes <pauljgarvey03@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Wednesday, September 27, 2023 at 10:02:28 AM UTC+1, Spike wrote:
>> Paul from Llanmaes <pauljg...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> The El Niño is likely to persist through the next boreal spring. Also
>>> possible that we will see the first month with a +1.5C temperature
>>> anomaly, over this next year, given that August was +1.24C, El Niño
>>> conditions have only been prevalent for a short time and the El Niño has
>>> not technically started yet.
>>>
>>> https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
>> The term is closely associated with the work of mathematician and
>> meteorologist Edward Norton Lorenz. He noted that the butterfly effect is
>> derived from the metaphorical example of the details of a tornado (the
>> exact time of formation, the exact path taken) being influenced by minor
>> perturbations such as a distant butterfly flapping its wings several weeks
>> earlier.
>>
>> Lorenz originally used a seagull causing a storm but was persuaded to make
>> it more poetic with the use of a butterfly and tornado by 1972.[1][2]
>>
>> He discovered the effect when he observed runs of his weather model with
>> initial condition data that were rounded in a seemingly inconsequential
>> manner. He noted that the weather model would fail to reproduce the results
>> of runs with the unrounded initial condition data. A very small change in
>> initial conditions had created a significantly different outcome.[3]
>>
>> The idea that small causes may have large effects in weather was earlier
>> acknowledged by French mathematician and engineer Henri Poincaré.
>>
>> American mathematician and philosopher Norbert Wiener also contributed to
>> this theory.
>>
>> Lorenz's work placed the concept of instability of the Earth's atmosphere
>> onto a quantitative base and linked the concept of instability to the
>> properties of large classes of dynamic systems which are undergoing
>> nonlinear dynamics and deterministic chaos.[4]
>>
>> <https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect>
>>
>> --
>> Spike
>
> Can you get more stupid, or have you not reached your limits yet.
>
> Do keep posting. Your lack of understanding and your actual ignorance is
> astounding. 😂😂😂😂😂
🎭👸

--
Spike