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aus+uk / uk.sci.weather / [ CC ] Global Sea Level Rise from altimetry

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o [ CC ] Global Sea Level Rise from altimetryN_Cook

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[ CC ] Global Sea Level Rise from altimetry

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From: diverse@tcp.co.uk (N_Cook)
Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Subject: [ CC ] Global Sea Level Rise from altimetry
Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2023 11:13:25 +0100
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 by: N_Cook - Sat, 14 Oct 2023 10:13 UTC

Slowly increasing global SLR.
Latest output 14 Oct 2023 data to 2023.689099 (08 Sep 2023).
Indicial curve fit still the best fit and the century projection curve
y = 2.547711 + 0.096514*x^1.415813

y is global SLR in Aviso terms and x is year minus 2000, 6dp figures
retained for anyone else wishing to repeat/confirm these results.
To 2100 processing all the data each time ,from 2003.0 to avoid
post-Pinatubo global geodata hiatus ,761 datapoints, SLR of 68.044 cm.

Recent history of these processed Aviso 10 day outputs , after a very
long run of -going values , the 24 Dec 2022 one, the first regular 10
day whole-earth-orbits scan cycle Aviso output, started going positive
but then continued negative until July 2023 with El Nino kicking in.

Latest data-point date, 2100 projected value
24 Dec 2022, 70.011cm
03 Jan 2023, 70.008
13 Jan 2023, 70.07
23 Jan 2023, 70.08
02 Feb 2023, 69.94 (- 0.14)
22 Feb 2023, 69.45 (-0.49)
03 Mar 2023, 69.33 (-0.12)
14 Mar 2023, 69.31 (-0.02)
24 Mar 2023, 69.17 (-0.14)
03 Apr 2023, 68.84cm (-0.33)
22 Apr 2023, 68.05 (-0.79)
02 May 2023, 67.82 (-0.23)
12 May 2023, 67.82 ( +/-0.0)
22 May 2023, 67.800 ( -0.02 cm)
01 June 2023, 67.729 (-0.07cm
01 July 2023 , 67.479 (- 0.25cm)
11 July 2023, 67.694 (+0.21cm)
21 July 2023, 67.807 (+0.11cm)
30 July 2023, 67.862 (+0.06cm)
19 Aug 2023, 67.894 (+0.03cm)
29 Aug 2023, 67.9962 (+0.1cm)
08 Sep 2023, 68.044 (+0.05cm)

From that curve for the last year 2022.5 to 2023.5,
annual global SLR of
5.03 mm and locally for South Hampshire UK , sinking
from post-glacial isostatic counter rebound by about 1.7mm/year, (minus
the 0.3mm/yr GIA included in the Aviso
reference figures) gives 6.43mm/year or 1/4 inch per year for the Solent
SLR, so
about half a millimetre a month local SLR.
Earlier results on the URL below. Being over-run by a large increase in
local UK mean sea level of about 2cm in the last year. No academic
reporting of that and no reply from any of the UK and world experts on
mean sea level and any explanation. I suspect with slowing of AMOC and
Greenland meltwater and salinity change, the deep cold return path is
not up to the job and water is building up in the NE Atlantic.
A slowing of AMOC from the principle that reductions in the amount of
Atlantic bottom water reaching the ocean floor increases sea levels
because the warmer water that replaces it takes up more space.
Analysing the red/blue difference of the Newlyn residuals over time
https://ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Newlyn&chrt=3
they should track together.
Similar separation for all other UK ports and in their recent archives.
It would be convenient to say there is a problem with the Exeter Met
Office/NTSLF big-data surge predictor of the blue or NTSLF tidecurves
underlying the red. But this UK MSL <>0.15m anomaly is showing up with
similar values in two other independent monitoring processes,
independent of NTSLF and independent of each other. Unknown to me
whether the same anomaly is showing up in Scandinavia or Iceland, or
France say. A possible alternative explanation could be hydro-isostasy
from the extra weight of sea water in the last few decades , depressing
the NE Atlantic basin. But how that would affect the margin, ie like the
UK, up or down is unknown to me , additional to post-glacial GIA, but
difficult to see it amounting to about 0.15m.
Or of course simple warming of N. Atlantic water to depth, increasing
sea level .

This global SLR curve fit using
ftp://ftp.aviso.altimetry.fr/pub/oceano/AVISO/indicators/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_AVISO_GIA_Adjust_Filter2m.txt
data from
http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level/products-images.html

and off-line curve-fitter from
<statpages.info/nonlin.html>

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

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