Since the Brexit vote in 2016, the exchange rate of the pound against other leading currencies has fallen significantly. This seems to reflect a generally negative outlook among international investors for the UK’s economic prospects outside the European Union.

At the start of 2021, the pound was approximately 15% weaker relative to the euro than it was on the eve of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU) in June 2016. Sterling was also 20% weaker than it was when the EU Referendum Act received Royal Assent in December 2015.

Over the last five years, Brexit has been one of the key factors influencing exchange rate volatility and the value of the pound against other leading currencies. The effect of Brexit was particularly evident immediately after the referendum result, as sterling experienced its largest fall within a single day in 30 years. There were two further substantial and sustained falls in 2017 and 2019, bringing the value of sterling to new lows against the euro and the dollar in August 2019.

This largely happened because expectations of increased trade frictions between the UK and its largest trade partner, as well as increased uncertainty and persistent political instability, led financial institutions to sell the pound. As more and more organisations sold sterling-denominated assets, the value of the pound was driven down relative to other currencies.

swldx...@gmail.com <swldxer1958@gmail.com> wrote:

> Since the Brexit vote in 2016, the exchange rate of the pound against
> other leading currencies has fallen significantly. This seems to reflect
> a generally negative outlook among international investors for the UK’s
> economic prospects outside the European Union.

> At the start of 2021, the pound was approximately 15% weaker relative to
> the euro than it was on the eve of the referendum on the UK’s membership
> of the European Union (EU) in June 2016. Sterling was also 20% weaker
> than it was when the EU Referendum Act received Royal Assent in December 2015.

Report dated 22 FEB 2021

What’s happened in the last 2+ years?

--
Spike

On 13/06/2023 08:35 pm, swldx...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> At the start of 2021, the pound was approximately 15% weaker relative to the euro than it was on the eve of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU) in June 2016...

....because sterling interest rates were in negative figures.

Holding sterling was a short-cut to losing the value of one's cash holdings.

The BoE was well aware of all of this, but chose, under moron Carney, to
cheat savers and pamper those who wished to live on borrowed money.

Carney was so wrong on every economic point that he probably commuted to
Threadneedle Street by chav-bike.

On Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 8:35:20 PM UTC+1, swldx...@gmail.com wrote:
> Since the Brexit vote in 2016, the exchange rate of the pound against other leading currencies has fallen significantly. This seems to reflect a generally negative outlook among international investors for the UK’s economic prospects outside the European Union.
>
> At the start of 2021, the pound was approximately 15% weaker relative to the euro than it was on the eve of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU) in June 2016. Sterling was also 20% weaker than it was when the EU Referendum Act received Royal Assent in December 2015.
>
> Over the last five years, Brexit has been one of the key factors influencing exchange rate volatility and the value of the pound against other leading currencies. The effect of Brexit was particularly evident immediately after the referendum result, as sterling experienced its largest fall within a single day in 30 years. There were two further substantial and sustained falls in 2017 and 2019, bringing the value of sterling to new lows against the euro and the dollar in August 2019.
>
> This largely happened because expectations of increased trade frictions between the UK and its largest trade partner, as well as increased uncertainty and persistent political instability, led financial institutions to sell the pound. As more and more organisations sold sterling-denominated assets, the value of the pound was driven down relative to other currencies.

This graph shows the devastating effect on the GBP which led to a few rich gammons making a shedload of money by betting on a tanking pound, while the rest of us ended up much poorer.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyjxSYjWAAEw1I9?format=jpg&name=medium

swldx...@gmail.com <swldxer1958@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 8:35:20 PM UTC+1, swldx...@gmail.com wrote:
>> Since the Brexit vote in 2016, the exchange rate of the pound against
>> other leading currencies has fallen significantly. This seems to reflect
>> a generally negative outlook among international investors for the UK’s
>> economic prospects outside the European Union.
>>
>> At the start of 2021, the pound was approximately 15% weaker relative to
>> the euro than it was on the eve of the referendum on the UK’s membership
>> of the European Union (EU) in June 2016. Sterling was also 20% weaker
>> than it was when the EU Referendum Act received Royal Assent in December 2015.
>>
>> Over the last five years, Brexit has been one of the key factors
>> influencing exchange rate volatility and the value of the pound against
>> other leading currencies. The effect of Brexit was particularly evident
>> immediately after the referendum result, as sterling experienced its
>> largest fall within a single day in 30 years. There were two further
>> substantial and sustained falls in 2017 and 2019, bringing the value of
>> sterling to new lows against the euro and the dollar in August 2019.
>>
>> This largely happened because expectations of increased trade frictions
>> between the UK and its largest trade partner, as well as increased
>> uncertainty and persistent political instability, led financial
>> institutions to sell the pound. As more and more organisations sold
>> sterling-denominated assets, the value of the pound was driven down
>> relative to other currencies.
>
> This graph shows the devastating effect on the GBP which led to a few
> rich gammons making a shedload of money by betting on a tanking pound,
> while the rest of us ended up much poorer.

There was nothing stopping you betting against the pound.

And in what way we’re you poorer? Was the pound in your pocket affected?
(You’re probably too young to remember that one).

> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyjxSYjWAAEw1I9?format=jpg&name=medium

--
Spike

On Wednesday, June 14, 2023 at 6:13:14 AM UTC+1, swldx...@gmail.com wrote:

> This graph shows the devastating effect on the GBP which led to a few rich gammons making a shedload of money by betting on a tanking pound, while the rest of us ended up much poorer.
>
> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyjxSYjWAAEw1I9?format=jpg&name=medium

Sad news if you have a mortgage.

QUOTE: Summers: Brexit was historic economic error which pushed up inflation

Brexit was a “historic economic error” which has hurt the UK economy and helped to drive up inflation, Larry Summers, the former US Treasury secretary has warned.

Summers told Radio 4’s Today programme that UK economic policy has been “substantially flawed for some years,” and singles out the exit from the European Union as a factor driving up costs.

Asked why inflation in the UK is significantly higher than in the US, Summers explains:

I think Brexit will be remembered as a historic economic error that reduced the competitiveness of the UK economy, put downward pressure on the pound and upwards pressure on prices, limited imports of goods and limited in some ways the supply of labour.

All of which contributed to higher inflation.

[The US consumer prices index fell to 4.9% per year in April, while UK inflation was 8.7%.]

Summers adds that the Bank of England also blundered, saying:

I think that was reinforced by very ill-judged monetary policies that were substantially too expansionary for too long.

[A report last week showed that Britain’s departure from the European Union has accounted for about a third of the increase in food bills for households since 2019, equivalent to about £250.] ENDS

swldx...@gmail.com <swldxer1958@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Wednesday, June 14, 2023 at 6:13:14 AM UTC+1, swldx...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>> This graph shows the devastating effect on the GBP which led to a few
>> rich gammons making a shedload of money by betting on a tanking pound,
>> while the rest of us ended up much poorer.
>>
>> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyjxSYjWAAEw1I9?format=jpg&name=medium
>
> Sad news if you have a mortgage.
>
> QUOTE: Summers: Brexit was historic economic error which pushed up inflation
>
> Brexit was a “historic economic error” which has hurt the UK economy and
> helped to drive up inflation, Larry Summers, the former US Treasury secretary has warned.

So what does the *former* US Treasury Secretary have to say about the
Eurozone being in a recession that’s expected to last two years, driven by
sluggish industrial output and reduced consumer spending?

Is that due to Brexit?

> Summers told Radio 4’s Today programme that UK economic policy has been
> “substantially flawed for some years,” and singles out the exit from the
> European Union as a factor driving up costs.
>
> Asked why inflation in the UK is significantly higher than in the US, Summers explains:
>
> I think Brexit will be remembered as a historic economic error that
> reduced the competitiveness of the UK economy, put downward pressure on
> the pound and upwards pressure on prices, limited imports of goods and
> limited in some ways the supply of labour.
>
> All of which contributed to higher inflation.
>
> [The US consumer prices index fell to 4.9% per year in April, while UK inflation was 8.7%.]
>
> Summers adds that the Bank of England also blundered, saying:
>
> I think that was reinforced by very ill-judged monetary policies that
> were substantially too expansionary for too long.
>
> [A report last week showed that Britain’s departure from the European
> Union has accounted for about a third of the increase in food bills for
> households since 2019, equivalent to about £250.] ENDS
>

--
Spike

On Wednesday, June 14, 2023 at 11:17:27 AM UTC+1, swldx...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Wednesday, June 14, 2023 at 6:13:14 AM UTC+1, swldx...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> > This graph shows the devastating effect on the GBP which led to a few rich gammons making a shedload of money by betting on a tanking pound, while the rest of us ended up much poorer.
> >
> > https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyjxSYjWAAEw1I9?format=jpg&name=medium
> Sad news if you have a mortgage.

Paid mine off ten years ago out of my £600000 pension pot - happy days, free from Truss/Kamakwaze disaster.

On 14/06/2023 07:30 am, Spike wrote:
> swldx...@gmail.com <swldxer1958@gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 8:35:20 PM UTC+1, swldx...@gmail.com wrote:
>>> Since the Brexit vote in 2016, the exchange rate of the pound against
>>> other leading currencies has fallen significantly. This seems to reflect
>>> a generally negative outlook among international investors for the UK’s
>>> economic prospects outside the European Union.
>>>
>>> At the start of 2021, the pound was approximately 15% weaker relative to
>>> the euro than it was on the eve of the referendum on the UK’s membership
>>> of the European Union (EU) in June 2016. Sterling was also 20% weaker
>>> than it was when the EU Referendum Act received Royal Assent in December 2015.
>>>
>>> Over the last five years, Brexit has been one of the key factors
>>> influencing exchange rate volatility and the value of the pound against
>>> other leading currencies. The effect of Brexit was particularly evident
>>> immediately after the referendum result, as sterling experienced its
>>> largest fall within a single day in 30 years. There were two further
>>> substantial and sustained falls in 2017 and 2019, bringing the value of
>>> sterling to new lows against the euro and the dollar in August 2019.
>>>
>>> This largely happened because expectations of increased trade frictions
>>> between the UK and its largest trade partner, as well as increased
>>> uncertainty and persistent political instability, led financial
>>> institutions to sell the pound. As more and more organisations sold
>>> sterling-denominated assets, the value of the pound was driven down
>>> relative to other currencies.
>>
>> This graph shows the devastating effect on the GBP which led to a few
>> rich gammons making a shedload of money by betting on a tanking pound,
>> while the rest of us ended up much poorer.
>
> There was nothing stopping you betting against the pound.
>
> And in what way we’re you poorer? Was the pound in your pocket affected?
> (You’re probably too young to remember that one).

No. Just too thick.

On 14/06/2023 11:17 am, swldx...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Wednesday, June 14, 2023 at 6:13:14 AM UTC+1, swldx...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>> This graph shows the devastating effect on the GBP which led to a few rich gammons making a shedload of money by betting on a tanking pound, while the rest of us ended up much poorer.
>>
>> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyjxSYjWAAEw1I9?format=jpg&name=medium
>
> Sad news if you have a mortgage.
>
> QUOTE: Summers: Brexit was historic economic error which pushed up inflation
>
> Brexit was a “historic economic error” which has hurt the UK economy and helped to drive up inflation, Larry Summers, the former US Treasury secretary has warned.
>
> Summers told Radio 4’s Today programme that UK economic policy has been “substantially flawed for some years,” and singles out the exit from the European Union as a factor driving up costs.
>
> Asked why inflation in the UK is significantly higher than in the US, Summers explains:
>
> I think Brexit will be remembered as a historic economic error that reduced the competitiveness of the UK economy, put downward pressure on the pound and upwards pressure on prices, limited imports of goods and limited in some ways the supply of labour.
>
> All of which contributed to higher inflation.
>
> [The US consumer prices index fell to 4.9% per year in April, while UK inflation was 8.7%.]

The USA has increased interest rates more than has the BoE.

> Summers adds that the Bank of England also blundered, saying:
>
> I think that was reinforced by very ill-judged monetary policies that were substantially too expansionary for too long.

A *lot* of us have been saying that for many years.

On 14/06/2023 11:51 am, swldx...@gmail.com...

....pretending only to answer his own posts, said:

> On Wednesday, June 14, 2023 at 11:17:27 AM UTC+1, swldx...@gmail.com wrote:

....pretending only to answer his own posts, said:

>> On Wednesday, June 14, 2023 at 6:13:14 AM UTC+1, swldx...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>>> This graph shows the devastating effect on the GBP which led to a few rich gammons making a shedload of money by betting on a tanking pound, while the rest of us ended up much poorer.
>>> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyjxSYjWAAEw1I9?format=jpg&name=medium

>> Sad news if you have a mortgage.

> Paid mine off ten years ago out of my £600000 pension pot - happy days, free from Truss/Kamakwaze disaster.

£600,000!

:-)

Ah... the old ones are the best.

Brexit continues to affect the UK economy. The results in this report are updates to the original study of Bakker et al. (2022), showing that higher non-tariff barriers due to Brexit are affecting food price inflation and costing households in the UK.

While the original paper used data up to January 2022, this report updates the dataset through to March 2023. The methodology is otherwise identical so for more details please consult the original paper.

https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_NEW/publications/abstract.asp?index=10174

swldx...@gmail.com <swldxer1958@gmail.com> wrote:
> Brexit continues to affect the UK economy. The results in this report are
> updates to the original study of Bakker et al. (2022), showing that
> higher non-tariff barriers due to Brexit are affecting food price
> inflation and costing households in the UK.
>
> While the original paper used data up to January 2022, this report
> updates the dataset through to March 2023. The methodology is otherwise
> identical so for more details please consult the original paper.
>
> https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_NEW/publications/abstract.asp?index=10174

No mention of Brexit causing the EU’s rise in food price inflation…

--
Spike

Food inflation in Britain – already stubbornly high – could be about to get worse after new post-Brexit border controls come into effect from October.

The government this week published proposals to charge a flat-rate inspection fee of up to £43 on each consignment of food coming from the EU, which is likely to be passed onto the consumer.

Since the EU-UK trade deal came into force in January 2021, the UK government has not imposed full border checks on food imports from the bloc, but has announced its “firm intention” to phase in controls from the autumn.

Industry bodies argue the proposed charges, which range from £20 up to £43, will hit smaller firms and UK families at a time when they are already grappling with rampant food-price inflation.

UK food and drink price inflation hit a 45-year record of 19.2 per cent in March, and remained stubbornly high in April at 19.1 per cent as its European neighbours saw their rates ease considerably.

The disproportionately high inflation is in part down to post-Brexit border arrangements, despite Jacob Rees-Mogg promising in 2017 that Brexit would reduce the cost of food and wine by 20 per cent

Nichola Mallon, head of trade at Logistics UK, the haulage trade body, said the charge was “very concerning” given current price pressures. “It is too high and, if introduced, will add to inflationary pressures and is likely to lead to market distortion in the movement of goods,” she said.

Shane Brennan, the director of the Cold Chain Federation, added that the proposals made little sense at a time when the government was actively discussing imposing price controls on UK supermarkets to keep down the cost of staple foods.

Speaking to the Financial Times, he said: “It is crazy that one week the government is holding a crisis meeting in Downing Street to discuss out-of-control food inflation and the next is willing to nod through a multimillion new import tax on EU food imports.”