https://people.com/frenchman-who-blocked-sydney-mall-attacker-offered-australian-citizenship-8634654
"Damien Guerot, now regarded as Bollard Man because he used a bollard,
tried to prevent Joel Cauchi from hurting more people during the attack at
the Westfield Shopping Centre in Bondi Junction in Sydney on Saturday,
April 13.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bollard
chiefly British : any of a series of short posts set at intervals to
delimit an area (such as a traffic island) or to exclude vehicles

Etymology
perhaps from bole

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bole
TRUNK

Etymology
Middle English, from Old Norse bolr

On 20/04/24 01:08, Ken Blake wrote:
> https://people.com/frenchman-who-blocked-sydney-mall-attacker-offered-australian-citizenship-8634654
> "Damien Guerot, now regarded as Bollard Man because he used a bollard,
> tried to prevent Joel Cauchi from hurting more people during the attack at
> the Westfield Shopping Centre in Bondi Junction in Sydney on Saturday,
> April 13.
>
> https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bollard
> chiefly British : any of a series of short posts set at intervals to
> delimit an area (such as a traffic island) or to exclude vehicles
>
> Etymology
> perhaps from bole
>
> https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bole
> TRUNK
>
> Etymology
> Middle English, from Old Norse bolr

The French government has praised Guerot, I gather. I wonder what they
think of the idea that an appropriate reward is to offer him permanent
Australian residency.

--
Peter Moylan http://www.pmoylan.org
Newcastle, NSW

Ken Blake <Ken@OneOfMany.com> wrote:

> <https://people.com/frenchman-who-blocked-sydney-mall-attacker-offered-australian-citizenship-8634654>
> "Damien Guerot, now regarded as Bollard Man because he used a bollard,
> tried to prevent Joel Cauchi from hurting more people during the attack at
> the Westfield Shopping Centre in Bondi Junction in Sydney on Saturday,
> April 13.
>
> https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bollard
> chiefly British : any of a series of short posts set at intervals to
> delimit an area (such as a traffic island) or to exclude vehicles
>

Also a similar structure on a pier or jetty for mooring boats.
Tugboat power is specified in tons bollard pull.

<https://www.marine-pilots.com/articles/687253-what-is-tugs-bollard-pull-and-how-it-is-calculated>

>
> Etymology
> perhaps from bole
>
> https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bole
> TRUNK
>
> Etymology
> Middle English, from Old Norse bolr

--
^Ï^. Sn!pe, PA, FIBS - Professional Crastinator

My pet rock Gordon admires J. Alfred Prufrock.

In article <1qsalxs.2z2kwsig6si7N%snipeco.2@gmail.com>,
Sn!pe <snipeco.2@gmail.com> wrote:
> Ken Blake <Ken@OneOfMany.com> wrote:

> > <https://people.com/frenchman-who-blocked-sydney-mall-attacker-offered-australian-citizenship-8634654>
> > "Damien Guerot, now regarded as Bollard Man because he used a bollard,
> > tried to prevent Joel Cauchi from hurting more people during the attack
> > at the Westfield Shopping Centre in Bondi Junction in Sydney on
> > Saturday, April 13.
> >
> > https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bollard
> > chiefly British : any of a series of short posts set at intervals to
> > delimit an area (such as a traffic island) or to exclude vehicles
> >

> Also a similar structure on a pier or jetty for mooring boats.
> Tugboat power is specified in tons bollard pull.

Going back to Beyond the Fringe: "Smoke Bollard - a Man's cigarette."

--
from KT24 in Surrey, England - sent from my RISC OS 4té²
"I'd rather die of exhaustion than die of boredom" Thomas Carlyle

On 2024-04-20 08:08:03 +0000, charles said:

> In article <1qsalxs.2z2kwsig6si7N%snipeco.2@gmail.com>,
> Sn!pe <snipeco.2@gmail.com> wrote:
>> Ken Blake <Ken@OneOfMany.com> wrote:
>
>>> <https://people.com/frenchman-who-blocked-sydney-mall-attacker-offered-australian-citizenship-8634654>
>>>
>>> "Damien Guerot, now regarded as Bollard Man because he used a bollard,
>>> tried to prevent Joel Cauchi from hurting more people during the attack
>>> at the Westfield Shopping Centre in Bondi Junction in Sydney on
>>> Saturday, April 13.
>>>
>>> https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bollard
>>> chiefly British : any of a series of short posts set at intervals to
>>> delimit an area (such as a traffic island) or to exclude vehicles
>>>
>
>> Also a similar structure on a pier or jetty for mooring boats.
>> Tugboat power is specified in tons bollard pull.
>
> Going back to Beyond the Fringe: "Smoke Bollard - a 'Man's cigarette'."

The implied reference to Capstan, at that time a very popular cigarette
in England (less so today, Wikipedia says) was, of course, intentional.
The "Man's cigarette" aspect was illustrated by an exaggeratedly
effeminate dialogue.

I saw Beyond the Fringe on its opening night in Toronto. It was greeted
with grear applause until the bit about Peter Cook and Jonathan Miller
being upper-class the other two being lower-class -- so far so good: in
Canada you can joke about what is perceived to be the British class
system -- continuing with the famous statzment that "Jonathan is a
Jew". There was a great intake of breath throughout the theatre and the
rest of the show fell completely flat. After I got back to Oxford there
was an article in Cherwell by someone that I didn't know, who had
attended the same performance. His account agreed closely with my owan
interpretation.

--
Athel -- French and British, living in Marseilles for 37 years; mainly
in England until 1987.

In article <l8hfveFrte3U1@mid.individual.net>,
Athel Cornish-Bowden <me@yahoo.com> wrote:
> On 2024-04-20 08:08:03 +0000, charles said:

> > In article <1qsalxs.2z2kwsig6si7N%snipeco.2@gmail.com>,
> > Sn!pe <snipeco.2@gmail.com> wrote:
> >> Ken Blake <Ken@OneOfMany.com> wrote:
> >
> >>> <https://people.com/frenchman-who-blocked-sydney-mall-attacker-offered-australian-citizenship-8634654>
> >>>
> >>> "Damien Guerot, now regarded as Bollard Man because he used a bollard,
> >>> tried to prevent Joel Cauchi from hurting more people during the attack
> >>> at the Westfield Shopping Centre in Bondi Junction in Sydney on
> >>> Saturday, April 13.
> >>>
> >>> https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bollard
> >>> chiefly British : any of a series of short posts set at intervals to
> >>> delimit an area (such as a traffic island) or to exclude vehicles
> >>>
> >
> >> Also a similar structure on a pier or jetty for mooring boats.
> >> Tugboat power is specified in tons bollard pull.
> >
> > Going back to Beyond the Fringe: "Smoke Bollard - a 'Man's cigarette'."

> The implied reference to Capstan, at that time a very popular cigarette
> in England (less so today, Wikipedia says) was, of course, intentional.
> The "Man's cigarette" aspect was illustrated by an exaggeratedly
> effeminate dialogue.

> I saw Beyond the Fringe on its opening night in Toronto. It was greeted
> with grear applause until the bit about Peter Cook and Jonathan Miller
> being upper-class the other two being lower-class -- so far so good: in
> Canada you can joke about what is perceived to be the British class
> system -- continuing with the famous statzment that "Jonathan is a
> Jew". There was a great intake of breath throughout the theatre and the
> rest of the show fell completely flat. After I got back to Oxford there
> was an article in Cherwell by someone that I didn't know, who had
> attended the same performance. His account agreed closely with my owan
> interpretation.

I saw it in the original Edinburgh Festival version. 1960.

--
from KT24 in Surrey, England - sent from my RISC OS 4té²
"I'd rather die of exhaustion than die of boredom" Thomas Carlyle

* Athel Cornish-Bowden <l8hfveFrte3U1@mid.individual.net> :
Wrote on Sat, 20 Apr 2024 11:25:23 +0200:
> On 2024-04-20 08:08:03 +0000, charles said:
>> In article <1qsalxs.2z2kwsig6si7N%snipeco.2@gmail.com>,
>> Going back to Beyond the Fringe: "Smoke Bollard - a 'Man's
>> cigarette'."
>
> The implied reference to Capstan, at that time a very popular
> cigarette in England (less so today, Wikipedia says) was, of course,
> intentional. The "Man's cigarette" aspect was illustrated by an
> exaggeratedly effeminate dialogue.

IIRC, at least in the first decades of this century, Capstan (pronounced
Kap-I-sthaan, long ee but otherwise rhymed with the indian pronunciation
pakistan) was a popular brand among the wandering smoking sadhu classes
of North India, not to smoke as a cigarette, but as a source of tobacco
to temper their bhang (cannabis leaves), to make it less harsh and
smokeable. (Ironic because Capstan was considered too harsh to smoke by
regular smokers)

Madhu <enometh@meer.net> wrote:

> * Athel Cornish-Bowden <l8hfveFrte3U1@mid.individual.net> :
> Wrote on Sat, 20 Apr 2024 11:25:23 +0200:
> > On 2024-04-20 08:08:03 +0000, charles said:
> >> In article <1qsalxs.2z2kwsig6si7N%snipeco.2@gmail.com>,
> >> Going back to Beyond the Fringe: "Smoke Bollard - a 'Man's
> >> cigarette'."
> >
> > The implied reference to Capstan, at that time a very popular
> > cigarette in England (less so today, Wikipedia says) was, of course,
> > intentional. The "Man's cigarette" aspect was illustrated by an
> > exaggeratedly effeminate dialogue.
>
> IIRC, at least in the first decades of this century, Capstan (pronounced
> Kap-I-sthaan, long ee but otherwise rhymed with the indian pronunciation
> pakistan) was a popular brand among the wandering smoking sadhu classes
> of North India, not to smoke as a cigarette, but as a source of tobacco
> to temper their bhang (cannabis leaves), to make it less harsh and
> smokeable. (Ironic because Capstan was considered too harsh to smoke by
> regular smokers)

Occasionally I would smoke Capstan Full Strength as a change from
Senior Service or Player's Navy Cut. They were all plain, untipped.
When my dad began to have some success in life he would smoke
posh cigs like Perfectos Finos or Passing Clouds (the squashed one)
which were also plain.

Plain cigs used better tobacco than tipped ones so they were a better
source of adulterant for [ahem] whatever. I write of when I was young
and had no sense, obvs.

--
^Ï^. Sn!pe, PA, FIBS - Professional Crastinator

My pet rock Gordon just is.

On 21/04/24 16:34, Madhu wrote:
> * Athel Cornish-Bowden <l8hfveFrte3U1@mid.individual.net> :
> Wrote on Sat, 20 Apr 2024 11:25:23 +0200:
>> On 2024-04-20 08:08:03 +0000, charles said:
>>> In article <1qsalxs.2z2kwsig6si7N%snipeco.2@gmail.com>,

>>> Going back to Beyond the Fringe: "Smoke Bollard - a 'Man's
>>> cigarette'."
>>
>> The implied reference to Capstan, at that time a very popular
>> cigarette in England (less so today, Wikipedia says) was, of course,
>> intentional. The "Man's cigarette" aspect was illustrated by an
>> exaggeratedly effeminate dialogue.
>
> IIRC, at least in the first decades of this century, Capstan (pronounced
> Kap-I-sthaan, long ee but otherwise rhymed with the indian pronunciation
> pakistan) was a popular brand among the wandering smoking sadhu classes
> of North India, not to smoke as a cigarette, but as a source of tobacco
> to temper their bhang (cannabis leaves), to make it less harsh and
> smokeable. (Ironic because Capstan was considered too harsh to smoke by
> regular smokers)

In my formative years we mixed tobacco with marijuana not to moderate
the taste, but as an economy measure. Tobacco was cheaper than marijuana.

This might be how I ended up addicted to tobacco.

My mother smoked cigarettes called "Craven A". (They later gave her an
early death.) In later years, tobacco company executives claimed that
cigarettes were not addictive. The very name of the "Craven A" brand
indicated that the sales of that brand depended on cravings.

That, at least, was how I interpreted it. But perhaps they only meant
the "craven" as meaning "cowardly".

--
Peter Moylan http://www.pmoylan.org
Newcastle, NSW

On 21/04/2024 13:44, Peter Moylan wrote:
> On 21/04/24 16:34, Madhu wrote:
>> * Athel Cornish-Bowden <l8hfveFrte3U1@mid.individual.net> :
>> Wrote on Sat, 20 Apr 2024 11:25:23 +0200:
>>> On 2024-04-20 08:08:03 +0000, charles said:
>>>> In article <1qsalxs.2z2kwsig6si7N%snipeco.2@gmail.com>,
>
>>>> Going back to Beyond the Fringe: "Smoke Bollard - a 'Man's
>>>> cigarette'."
>>>
>>> The implied reference to Capstan, at that time a very popular
>>> cigarette in England (less so today, Wikipedia says) was, of course,
>>> intentional. The "Man's cigarette" aspect was illustrated by an
>>> exaggeratedly effeminate dialogue.
>>
>> IIRC, at least in the first decades of this century, Capstan (pronounced
>> Kap-I-sthaan, long ee but otherwise rhymed with the indian pronunciation
>> pakistan) was a popular brand among the wandering smoking sadhu classes
>> of North India, not to smoke as a cigarette, but as a source of tobacco
>> to temper their bhang (cannabis leaves), to make it less harsh and
>> smokeable.  (Ironic because Capstan was considered too harsh to smoke by
>> regular smokers)
>
> In my formative years we mixed tobacco with marijuana not to moderate
> the taste, but as an economy measure. Tobacco was cheaper than marijuana.
>
> This might be how I ended up addicted to tobacco.
>
> My mother smoked cigarettes called "Craven A". (They later gave her an
> early death.) In later years, tobacco company executives claimed that
> cigarettes were not addictive. The very name of the "Craven A" brand
> indicated that the sales of that brand depended on cravings.
>
> That, at least, was how I interpreted it. But perhaps they only meant
> the "craven" as meaning "cowardly".
>
Or that they were named after the 3rd Earl of Craven.

--
Ray
UK

On 2024-04-21 12:44:17 +0000, Peter Moylan said:

> On 21/04/24 16:34, Madhu wrote:
>> * Athel Cornish-Bowden <l8hfveFrte3U1@mid.individual.net> :
>> Wrote on Sat, 20 Apr 2024 11:25:23 +0200:
>>> On 2024-04-20 08:08:03 +0000, charles said:
>>>> In article <1qsalxs.2z2kwsig6si7N%snipeco.2@gmail.com>,
>
>>>> Going back to Beyond the Fringe: "Smoke Bollard - a 'Man's
>>>> cigarette'."
>>>
>>> The implied reference to Capstan, at that time a very popular
>>> cigarette in England (less so today, Wikipedia says) was, of course,
>>> intentional. The "Man's cigarette" aspect was illustrated by an
>>> exaggeratedly effeminate dialogue.
>>
>> IIRC, at least in the first decades of this century, Capstan (pronounced
>> Kap-I-sthaan, long ee but otherwise rhymed with the indian pronunciation
>> pakistan) was a popular brand among the wandering smoking sadhu classes
>> of North India, not to smoke as a cigarette, but as a source of tobacco
>> to temper their bhang (cannabis leaves), to make it less harsh and
>> smokeable. (Ironic because Capstan was considered too harsh to smoke by
>> regular smokers)
>
> In my formative years we mixed tobacco with marijuana not to moderate
> the taste, but as an economy measure. Tobacco was cheaper than marijuana.

I wish I could say I had never smoked marijuana, but it would be a lie:
one quarter of a joint on a camping trip to the Sierra Nevada in
California in about 1969. It had no perceptible effect. Very few
tobacco cigarettes either: just when I was hitchhiking: if I was picked
up by a lorry I liked to offer the driver one, and it was only polite
to smoke one myself. Probably I have had fewer than ten cigarettes in
my life.
>
> This might be how I ended up addicted to tobacco.
>
> My mother smoked cigarettes called "Craven A". (They later gave her an
> early death.) In later years, tobacco company executives claimed that
> cigarettes were not addictive.

Amazingly, R. A. Fisher, one of the 20th century's greatest
statisticians and creators of the "modern synthesis" of evolutionary
theories, agreed with them. He was a very heavy smoker. He died of
cancer -- but not lung cancer -- at the age of 72.

> The very name of the "Craven A" brand
> indicated that the sales of that brand depended on cravings.
>
> That, at least, was how I interpreted it. But perhaps they only meant
> the "craven" as meaning "cowardly".

--
Athel -- French and British, living in Marseilles for 37 years; mainly
in England until 1987.

On 2024-04-21, Athel Cornish-Bowden wrote:

> On 2024-04-21 12:44:17 +0000, Peter Moylan said:
>
>> On 21/04/24 16:34, Madhu wrote:
>>> * Athel Cornish-Bowden <l8hfveFrte3U1@mid.individual.net> :
>>> Wrote on Sat, 20 Apr 2024 11:25:23 +0200:
>>>> On 2024-04-20 08:08:03 +0000, charles said:
>>>>> In article <1qsalxs.2z2kwsig6si7N%snipeco.2@gmail.com>,
>>
>>>>> Going back to Beyond the Fringe: "Smoke Bollard - a 'Man's
>>>>> cigarette'."
>>>>
>>>> The implied reference to Capstan, at that time a very popular
>>>> cigarette in England (less so today, Wikipedia says) was, of course,
>>>> intentional. The "Man's cigarette" aspect was illustrated by an
>>>> exaggeratedly effeminate dialogue.
>>>
>>> IIRC, at least in the first decades of this century, Capstan (pronounced
>>> Kap-I-sthaan, long ee but otherwise rhymed with the indian pronunciation
>>> pakistan) was a popular brand among the wandering smoking sadhu classes
>>> of North India, not to smoke as a cigarette, but as a source of tobacco
>>> to temper their bhang (cannabis leaves), to make it less harsh and
>>> smokeable. (Ironic because Capstan was considered too harsh to smoke by
>>> regular smokers)
>>
>> In my formative years we mixed tobacco with marijuana not to moderate
>> the taste, but as an economy measure. Tobacco was cheaper than marijuana.
>
> I wish I could say I had never smoked marijuana, but it would be a lie:
> one quarter of a joint on a camping trip to the Sierra Nevada in
> California in about 1969. It had no perceptible effect. Very few
> tobacco cigarettes either: just when I was hitchhiking: if I was picked
> up by a lorry I liked to offer the driver one, and it was only polite
> to smoke one myself. Probably I have had fewer than ten cigarettes in
> my life.
>>
>> This might be how I ended up addicted to tobacco.
>>
>> My mother smoked cigarettes called "Craven A". (They later gave her an
>> early death.) In later years, tobacco company executives claimed that
>> cigarettes were not addictive.
>
> Amazingly, R. A. Fisher, one of the 20th century's greatest
> statisticians and creators of the "modern synthesis" of evolutionary
> theories, agreed with them. He was a very heavy smoker. He died of
> cancer -- but not lung cancer -- at the age of 72.

"More doctors smoke Camels than any other cigarette."

--
With the breakdown of the medieval system, the gods of chaos, lunacy,
and bad taste gained ascendancy. ---Ignatius J Reilly

On Sun, 21 Apr 2024 20:18:47 +0200, Athel Cornish-Bowden
<me@yahoo.com> wrote:

>On 2024-04-21 12:44:17 +0000, Peter Moylan said:

>> My mother smoked cigarettes called "Craven A". (They later gave her an
>> early death.) In later years, tobacco company executives claimed that
>> cigarettes were not addictive.
>
>Amazingly, R. A. Fisher, one of the 20th century's greatest
>statisticians and creators of the "modern synthesis" of evolutionary
>theories, agreed with them. He was a very heavy smoker. He died of
>cancer -- but not lung cancer -- at the age of 72.
>

Fisher died in 1962. He was wrong-headed on smoking, but the
principles of observational epidemiology were not laid down until
a couple of years after his death.

Does cigarette smoking cause cancer? "Correlation is not
causation." Could ALL the moderator variables be ignored?
Fisher blamed moderators.

There were a LOT of medical and statistical people who
condemned cigarettes, but the best logical and statistical
case had not yet been made. It was useful, I think, for his
big name to be out there arguing that the case was not firm,
until, finally, it was. (1965, Bradford Hill criteria.)

The Bradford Hill criteria include nine viewpoints by which to
evaluate human epidemiologic evidence to determine if causation can
be deduced: strength, consistency, specificity, temporality,
biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, experiment, and
analogy.

What I thought Fisher should not have overlooked -- even
before the criteria were written down by Hill -- was 'strength.'
A weak moderator cannot account for all of a strong effect.
Smoking/cancer was always a strong effect, like, 5-fold
Odds-ratio and up.

The Wiki article describes honors taken away from Fisher's
name in recent years owing to his eugenics in a long
paragraph. A sentence is given to smoking.

--
Rich Ulrich

* Rich Ulrich <82ua2jpkjm1alds0bjioqrj88t7j448idj@4ax.com> :
Wrote on Sun, 21 Apr 2024 17:03:13 -0400:
> The Wiki article describes honors taken away from Fisher's
> name in recent years owing to his eugenics in a long
> paragraph. A sentence is given to smoking.

ruthlessly and posthumously cancelled for ideological views. You can
almost recognize the power of the spirit of (say stanlinist)
cancellation (which you have taught about and been programmed to hate)
at work here except for the blind programmed blind spot which causes you
to wink at it on home turf.

Athel Cornish-Bowden used thar keyboard to writen:
> On 2024-04-21 12:44:17 +0000, Peter Moylan said:
>
>> On 21/04/24 16:34, Madhu wrote:
>>> * Athel Cornish-Bowden <l8hfveFrte3U1@mid.individual.net> :
>>> Wrote on Sat, 20 Apr 2024 11:25:23 +0200:
>>>> On 2024-04-20 08:08:03 +0000, charles said:
>>>>> In article <1qsalxs.2z2kwsig6si7N%snipeco.2@gmail.com>,
>>
>>>>> Going back to Beyond the Fringe: "Smoke Bollard - a 'Man's
>>>>> cigarette'."
>>>>
>>>> The implied reference to Capstan, at that time a very popular
>>>> cigarette in England (less so today, Wikipedia says) was, of course,
>>>> intentional. The "Man's cigarette" aspect was illustrated by an
>>>> exaggeratedly effeminate dialogue.
>>>
>>> IIRC, at least in the first decades of this century, Capstan (pronounced
>>> Kap-I-sthaan, long ee but otherwise rhymed with the indian pronunciation
>>> pakistan) was a popular brand among the wandering smoking sadhu classes
>>> of North India, not to smoke as a cigarette, but as a source of tobacco
>>> to temper their bhang (cannabis leaves), to make it less harsh and
>>> smokeable. (Ironic because Capstan was considered too harsh to smoke by
>>> regular smokers)
>>
>> In my formative years we mixed tobacco with marijuana not to moderate
>> the taste, but as an economy measure. Tobacco was cheaper than marijuana.
>
> I wish I could say I had never smoked marijuana, but it would be a lie: one
> quarter of a joint on a camping trip to the Sierra Nevada in California in
> about 1969. It had no perceptible effect. Very few tobacco cigarettes either:
> just when I was hitchhiking: if I was picked up by a lorry I liked to offer
> the driver one, and it was only polite to smoke one myself. Probably I have
> had fewer than ten cigarettes in my life.
>>
>> This might be how I ended up addicted to tobacco.
>>
>> My mother smoked cigarettes called "Craven A". (They later gave her an
>> early death.) In later years, tobacco company executives claimed that
>> cigarettes were not addictive.
>
> Amazingly, R. A. Fisher, one of the 20th century's greatest statisticians and
> creators of the "modern synthesis" of evolutionary theories, agreed with
> them. He was a very heavy smoker. He died of cancer -- but not lung cancer --
> at the age of 72.
>
>> The very name of the "Craven A" brand
>> indicated that the sales of that brand depended on cravings.
>>
>> That, at least, was how I interpreted it. But perhaps they only meant
>> the "craven" as meaning "cowardly".

My brother's bladder cancer was caught fairly early, just a handful of
years back. He had stopped smoking 30 or more years ago, but the
doctor said that it was still likely a major causitive factor. Not all
smoking cancers are lung cancers.

/dps "probably 40 or more years ago"

--
"I am not given to exaggeration, and when I say a thing I mean it"
_Roughing It_, Mark Twain

On Sun, 21 Apr 2024 21:09:54 -0700, Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com>
wrote:

>
>
>My brother's bladder cancer was caught fairly early, just a handful of
>years back. He had stopped smoking 30 or more years ago, but the
>doctor said that it was still likely a major causitive factor. Not all
>smoking cancers are lung cancers.

'Thirty years' struck me as an excessive risk duration.

cdc.gov -
10 years after quitting: risk of cancers of the bladder, esophagus,
and kidney decreases. 10 to 15 years after quitting: added risk* of
lung cancer drops by half. 20 years after quitting: risk of cancers
of the larynx, oral cavity, pharynx, and pancreas drops to close to
that of someone who does not smoke.

That doctor was exaggerating when he said, still a major
causative factor after 30 years.

BTW, the attention seems to go to cancers, but the major loss
of life owing to smoking is from heart disease.

Five or ten times the risk of a LOW base rate for lung cancer
does not kill as many people as a doubling of a fairly high
death rate from heart attacks. IIRC, most of the heart risk
is erased by 10 years of abstinence.

--
Rich Ulrich

Rich Ulrich <rich.ulrich@comcast.net> wrote or quoted:
>That doctor was exaggerating when he said, still a major
>causative factor after 30 years.

I made up an age of 80 years, and asked an AI Internet chatbot.
He told me:

|For an 80-year-old former smoker who quit 30 years ago:
| |The majority of their risk of death in the next year, likely
|around 80-90%, is due to their advanced age of 80 years old.
| |The remaining 10-20% of their risk is attributable to their
|previous smoking history, even though they quit 30 years ago.
| (what an AI Internet chatbot told me).

Remember when Rich Ulrich bragged outrageously? That was Monday:
> On Sun, 21 Apr 2024 21:09:54 -0700, Snidely <snidely.too@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> My brother's bladder cancer was caught fairly early, just a handful of
>> years back. He had stopped smoking 30 or more years ago, but the
>> doctor said that it was still likely a major causitive factor. Not all
>> smoking cancers are lung cancers.
>
> 'Thirty years' struck me as an excessive risk duration.
>
> cdc.gov -
> 10 years after quitting: risk of cancers of the bladder, esophagus,
> and kidney decreases. 10 to 15 years after quitting: added risk* of
> lung cancer drops by half. 20 years after quitting: risk of cancers
> of the larynx, oral cavity, pharynx, and pancreas drops to close to
> that of someone who does not smoke.
>
> That doctor was exaggerating when he said, still a major
> causative factor after 30 years.
>
> BTW, the attention seems to go to cancers, but the major loss
> of life owing to smoking is from heart disease.
>
> Five or ten times the risk of a LOW base rate for lung cancer
> does not kill as many people as a doubling of a fairly high
> death rate from heart attacks. IIRC, most of the heart risk
> is erased by 10 years of abstinence.

Thanks for the additional background information.

/dps

--
"That's a good sort of hectic, innit?"

" Very much so, and I'd recommend the haggis wontons."
-njm

On 2024-04-21, Rich Ulrich wrote:

> On Sun, 21 Apr 2024 20:18:47 +0200, Athel Cornish-Bowden
><me@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>>On 2024-04-21 12:44:17 +0000, Peter Moylan said:
>
>
>>> My mother smoked cigarettes called "Craven A". (They later gave her an
>>> early death.) In later years, tobacco company executives claimed that
>>> cigarettes were not addictive.
>>
>>Amazingly, R. A. Fisher, one of the 20th century's greatest
>>statisticians and creators of the "modern synthesis" of evolutionary
>>theories, agreed with them. He was a very heavy smoker. He died of
>>cancer -- but not lung cancer -- at the age of 72.
>>
>
> Fisher died in 1962. He was wrong-headed on smoking, but the
> principles of observational epidemiology were not laid down until
> a couple of years after his death.
>
> Does cigarette smoking cause cancer? "Correlation is not
> causation." Could ALL the moderator variables be ignored?
> Fisher blamed moderators.
>
> There were a LOT of medical and statistical people who
> condemned cigarettes, but the best logical and statistical
> case had not yet been made. It was useful, I think, for his
> big name to be out there arguing that the case was not firm,
> until, finally, it was. (1965, Bradford Hill criteria.)
>
> The Bradford Hill criteria include nine viewpoints by which to
> evaluate human epidemiologic evidence to determine if causation can
> be deduced: strength, consistency, specificity, temporality,
> biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, experiment, and
> analogy.
>
> What I thought Fisher should not have overlooked -- even
> before the criteria were written down by Hill -- was 'strength.'
> A weak moderator cannot account for all of a strong effect.
> Smoking/cancer was always a strong effect, like, 5-fold
> Odds-ratio and up.
>
> The Wiki article describes honors taken away from Fisher's
> name in recent years owing to his eugenics in a long
> paragraph. A sentence is given to smoking.

It's a weird mixture of views. There is such a thing as non-racist
eugenics, but his comments about the UNESCO statement &
"miscegenation" make it difficult to believe that's what he really
supported.

--
"Every national border in Europe," El Eswad added ironically, "marks
the place where two gangs of bandits got too exhausted to kill each
other anymore and signed a treaty. Patriotism is the delusion that one
of these gangs of bandits is better than all the others." --R A Wilson

* Adam Funk <9jdjfkx626.ln2@news.ducksburg.com> :
Wrote on Tue, 23 Apr 2024 01:56:41 +0100:
> It's a weird mixture of views. There is such a thing as non-racist
> eugenics, but his comments about the UNESCO statement &
> "miscegenation" make it difficult to believe that's what he really
> supported.

agenda. agenda. agenda.

it is a clear warning to academics to remind them of exactly who is
paying their salaries and bankrolling their research and that their
duties are confined to furthering the agenda of the bankers that they
serve

On 22 Apr 2024 19:26:56 GMT, ram@zedat.fu-berlin.de (Stefan Ram)
wrote:

>Rich Ulrich <rich.ulrich@comcast.net> wrote or quoted:
>>That doctor was exaggerating when he said, still a major
>>causative factor after 30 years.
>
> I made up an age of 80 years, and asked an AI Internet chatbot.
> He told me:
>
>|For an 80-year-old former smoker who quit 30 years ago:
>|
>|The majority of their risk of death in the next year, likely
>|around 80-90%, is due to their advanced age of 80 years old.
>|
>|The remaining 10-20% of their risk is attributable to their
>|previous smoking history, even though they quit 30 years ago.
>|
>(what an AI Internet chatbot told me).

okay, interesting.

I'm not sure whether that speaks to heart risks or all risks.
But I think it doesn't make a huge difference

I might call "20%" a major risk factor, but not 10%.

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.114.001885

- is a study with results that don't end all argument.

After 15 years (it says), risks are nearly gone according to
previous studies, and also for theirs if you don't mention HEAVY
smokers. After a bunch of careful adjustment, previous heavy
smokers show somewhat higher risk (maybe 15%, maybe 50%).

But I keep in mind that this has to be an observational study,
and those always are trickier to interpret than Randomized Trials.

--
Rich Ulrich

On Sat, 20 Apr 24 08:08:03 UTC, charles <charles@candehope.me.uk>
wrote:

>In article <1qsalxs.2z2kwsig6si7N%snipeco.2@gmail.com>,
> Sn!pe <snipeco.2@gmail.com> wrote:
>> Ken Blake <Ken@OneOfMany.com> wrote:
>
>> > <https://people.com/frenchman-who-blocked-sydney-mall-attacker-offered-australian-citizenship-8634654>
>> > "Damien Guerot, now regarded as Bollard Man because he used a bollard,
>> > tried to prevent Joel Cauchi from hurting more people during the attack
>> > at the Westfield Shopping Centre in Bondi Junction in Sydney on
>> > Saturday, April 13.
>> >
>> > https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bollard
>> > chiefly British : any of a series of short posts set at intervals to
>> > delimit an area (such as a traffic island) or to exclude vehicles
>> >
>
>> Also a similar structure on a pier or jetty for mooring boats.
>> Tugboat power is specified in tons bollard pull.
>
>Going back to Beyond the Fringe: "Smoke Bollard - a Man's cigarette."

That was the first thing that came to my mind too, along with a mental
picture of a short metal post with an illuminated "Keep Left" sign on
top, placed at the beginning of a traffic island -- but I haven't seen
one for several decades, probably not since "Beyond the Fringe".

--
Steve Hayes from Tshwane, South Africa
Web: http://www.khanya.org.za/stevesig.htm
Blog: http://khanya.wordpress.com
E-mail - see web page, or parse: shayes at dunelm full stop org full stop uk

On 20/04/2024 00:40, Peter Moylan wrote:
> On 20/04/24 01:08, Ken Blake wrote:
>> https://people.com/frenchman-who-blocked-sydney-mall-attacker-offered-australian-citizenship-8634654
>> "Damien Guerot, now regarded as Bollard Man because he used a bollard,
>> tried to prevent Joel Cauchi from hurting more people during the
>> attack at
>> the Westfield Shopping Centre in Bondi Junction in Sydney on Saturday,
>> April 13.
>>

<snip>

>
> The French government has praised Guerot, I gather. I wonder what they
> think of the idea that an appropriate reward is to offer him permanent
> Australian residency.
>

No too surprised, I hope. Macron himself offered French citizenship not
so long ago to a Malian person, who rescued a child dangling
precariously from a balcony. The passing African did so by climbing the
outside of a building to reach the kid. The video I remember seeing was
very impressive.

https://www.politico.eu/article/paris-rescue-child-mamoudou-gassama-emmanuel-macron-gives-spiderman-french-citizenship/

On 2024-04-24 11:11:08 +0000, occam said:

> On 20/04/2024 00:40, Peter Moylan wrote:
>> On 20/04/24 01:08, Ken Blake wrote:
>>> https://people.com/frenchman-who-blocked-sydney-mall-attacker-offered-australian-citizenship-8634654
>>>
>>> "Damien Guerot, now regarded as Bollard Man because he used a bollard,
>>> tried to prevent Joel Cauchi from hurting more people during the
>>> attack at
>>> the Westfield Shopping Centre in Bondi Junction in Sydney on Saturday,
>>> April 13.
>>>
>
> <snip>
>
>>
>> The French government has praised Guerot, I gather. I wonder what they
>> think of the idea that an appropriate reward is to offer him permanent
>> Australian residency.
>>
>
> No too surprised, I hope. Macron himself offered French citizenship not
> so long ago to a Malian person, who rescued a child dangling
> precariously from a balcony. The passing African did so by climbing the
> outside of a building to reach the kid. The video I remember seeing was
> very impressive.

Yes indeed. Another example was Lassana Bathily, also Malian, who saved
a group of Jewish customers at the time of the terrorist attack in 2015
on the Hypercacher supermarket just outside Paris.

>
> https://www.politico.eu/article/paris-rescue-child-mamoudou-gassama-emmanuel-macron-gives-spiderman-french-citizenship/
>

--
Athel -- French and British, living in Marseilles for 37 years; mainly
in England until 1987.

On Wed, 24 Apr 2024 15:39:41 +0200
Athel Cornish-Bowden <me@yahoo.com> wrote:

> On 2024-04-24 11:11:08 +0000, occam said:
>
> > On 20/04/2024 00:40, Peter Moylan wrote:
> >> On 20/04/24 01:08, Ken Blake wrote:
> >>> https://people.com/frenchman-who-blocked-sydney-mall-attacker-offered-australian-citizenship-8634654
> >>>
> >>> "Damien Guerot, now regarded as Bollard Man because he used a bollard,
> >>> tried to prevent Joel Cauchi from hurting more people during the
> >>> attack at
> >>> the Westfield Shopping Centre in Bondi Junction in Sydney on Saturday,
> >>> April 13.
> >>>
> >
> > <snip>
> >
> >>
> >> The French government has praised Guerot, I gather. I wonder what they
> >> think of the idea that an appropriate reward is to offer him permanent
> >> Australian residency.
> >>
> >
> > No too surprised, I hope. Macron himself offered French citizenship not
> > so long ago to a Malian person, who rescued a child dangling
> > precariously from a balcony. The passing African did so by climbing the
> > outside of a building to reach the kid. The video I remember seeing was
> > very impressive.
>
> Yes indeed. Another example was Lassana Bathily, also Malian, who saved
> a group of Jewish customers at the time of the terrorist attack in 2015
> on the Hypercacher supermarket just outside Paris.
>
> >
> > https://www.politico.eu/article/paris-rescue-child-mamoudou-gassama-emmanuel-macron-gives-spiderman-french-citizenship/
> >
>
>

Sadly the UK (maybe more?) is very worried about 'illegal
immigrants' (which are often equated to 'asylum seekers') coming here
and then not being allowed to contribute by working but must be put up
in expensive hotels until sent to Rwanda.

Whenever that happens and at what cost per head.

--
Bah, and indeed Humbug.