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interests / rec.gambling.lottery / Re: Attn Nigel

SubjectAuthor
* Attn NigelMarmaduke Jinks
+* Attn Nigelnigel
|`* Attn NigelMarmaduke Jinks
| `- Attn Nigelnigel
`* Attn Nigelnigel
 `- Attn Nigelnigel

1
Attn Nigel

<ueos63$19cq8$1@dont-email.me>

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From: Jinks@Totopoly.co.uk (Marmaduke Jinks)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.lottery
Subject: Attn Nigel
Date: Sun, 24 Sep 2023 09:31:55 +0100
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 by: Marmaduke Jinks - Sun, 24 Sep 2023 08:31 UTC

Congrats for keeping it up ;-)

Did you learn much? Did you find a bias?

MJ
(I have post here, can't post further down the thread)

Re: Attn Nigel

<ueednSvx4oxX9oz4nZ2dnZfqnPSdnZ2d@brightview.co.uk>

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 by: nigel - Mon, 25 Sep 2023 11:15 UTC

Marmaduke Jinks wrote:

> Congrats for keeping it up ;-)
>
> Did you learn much? Did you find a bias?
>

Frayed knot, nothing remotely approaching significance. It was
right/wrong too often to offer any pecuniary advantages.

I've shifted my attention to a tiddly little system that's so simple
even Parpacluck might think of it in a couple of lifetimes. It might
just be a decent run of good luck or it might be the basis of a
competitive WLC system this year. Fingers crossed.

> MJ
> (I have post here, can't post further down the thread)

Evil Nigel

Re: Attn Nigel

<ueu8q6$2elo8$1@dont-email.me>

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From: Jinks@Totopoly.co.uk (Marmaduke Jinks)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.lottery
Subject: Re: Attn Nigel
Date: Tue, 26 Sep 2023 10:38:12 +0100
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 by: Marmaduke Jinks - Tue, 26 Sep 2023 09:38 UTC

"nigel" <useweb@nospam.com> wrote in message
news:ueednSvx4oxX9oz4nZ2dnZfqnPSdnZ2d@brightview.co.uk...
> Marmaduke Jinks wrote:
>
>> Congrats for keeping it up ;-)
>>
>> Did you learn much? Did you find a bias?
>>
>
> Frayed knot, nothing remotely approaching significance. It was right/wrong
> too often to offer any pecuniary advantages.
>
> I've shifted my attention to a tiddly little system that's so simple even
> Parpacluck might think of it in a couple of lifetimes. It might just be a
> decent run of good luck or it might be the basis of a competitive WLC
> system this year. Fingers crossed.
>
>> MJ
>> (I have post here, can't post further down the thread)
>
> Evil Nigel
>
Thanks for keeping us entertained :-)

MJ

Re: Attn Nigel

<DIycnX_AWerFn4X4nZ2dnZfqn_udnZ2d@brightview.co.uk>

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 by: nigel - Sat, 30 Sep 2023 11:11 UTC

Marmaduke Jinks wrote:
> "nigel" <useweb@nospam.com> wrote in message
> news:ueednSvx4oxX9oz4nZ2dnZfqnPSdnZ2d@brightview.co.uk...
>
>>Marmaduke Jinks wrote:
>>
>>
>>>Congrats for keeping it up ;-)
>>>
>>>Did you learn much? Did you find a bias?
>>>
>>
>>Frayed knot, nothing remotely approaching significance. It was right/wrong
>>too often to offer any pecuniary advantages.
>>
>>I've shifted my attention to a tiddly little system that's so simple even
>>Parpacluck might think of it in a couple of lifetimes. It might just be a
>>decent run of good luck or it might be the basis of a competitive WLC
>>system this year. Fingers crossed.
>>
>>
>>>MJ
>>>(I have post here, can't post further down the thread)
>>
>>Evil Nigel
>>
>
> Thanks for keeping us entertained :-)
>
> MJ

My system's run of 'good luck' came to a resounding crash with the
midweek draws.

Oh well, back to the drawing board :-(

Nigel

Re: Attn Nigel

<0_6dnQ9oXKZHhNP4nZ2dnZfqn_SdnZ2d@brightview.co.uk>

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 by: nigel - Fri, 10 Nov 2023 11:54 UTC

Marmaduke Jinks wrote:

> Congrats for keeping it up ;-)
>
> Did you learn much? Did you find a bias?
>
> MJ
> (I have post here, can't post further down the thread)
>

I've been accumulating (at a very leisurely pace) further analysis.

Comparing the 'best match' predictions with the actual outcomes had a
-9.5% correlation.
Comparing an average of the best 10 predictions with the actual outcomes
had a +11% correlation!
Comparing an average of the 2nd to 9th best predictions with the actual
outcomes had a +15.1% correlation.

That's over a six week time period so none of those correlations are
significant. In any case, a profitable lottery system would probably
need something like a 90% correlation.

Fun, innit!

Nigel

Re: Attn Nigel

<v6WcnROSg8IykM_4nZ2dnZfqn_SdnZ2d@brightview.co.uk>

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 by: nigel - Mon, 13 Nov 2023 11:51 UTC

nigel wrote:

> Marmaduke Jinks wrote:
>
>> Congrats for keeping it up ;-)
>>
>> Did you learn much? Did you find a bias?
>>
>> MJ
>> (I have post here, can't post further down the thread)
>>
>
> I've been accumulating (at a very leisurely pace) further analysis.
>
> Comparing the 'best match' predictions with the actual outcomes had a
> -9.5% correlation.
> Comparing an average of the best 10 predictions with the actual outcomes
> had a +11% correlation!
> Comparing an average of the 2nd to 9th best predictions with the actual
> outcomes had a +15.1% correlation.
>
> That's over a six week time period so none of those correlations are
> significant. In any case, a profitable lottery system would probably
> need something like a 90% correlation.
>
> Fun, innit!
>
> Nigel

After Saturday's results:
Comparing the 'best match' predictions with the actual outcomes had a
-16.4% correlation.
Comparing an average of the best 10 predictions with the actual outcomes
had a +9.9% correlation!
Comparing an average of the 2nd to 9th best predictions with the actual
outcomes had a +16.2% correlation.

:-)

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