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sport / rec.sport.soccer / Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round

SubjectAuthor
* The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:Futbolmetrix
`* The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:Futbolmetrix
 +- The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knocanders t
 +* The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:Werner Pichler
 |`- The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:Futbolmetrix
 +* The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:MH
 |`- The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:Futbolmetrix
 +* The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:MH
 |`- The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:Futbolmetrix
 `* The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:Futbolmetrix
  `* The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:Werner Pichler
   `- The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:Futbolmetrix

1
Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round

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Subject: Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:
2022-2023 Knockout Round
From: daniele.paserman@gmail.com (Futbolmetrix)
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 by: Futbolmetrix - Fri, 19 May 2023 20:29 UTC

On Friday, April 21, 2023 at 2:55:08 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 10:15:29 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Friday, February 17, 2023 at 11:34:05 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> Standings after the QFs

Standings after the semifinals:

UCL
------
Werner Pichler -15.270
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -15.322
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -16.251
Betfair -16.251
Collective Consciousness -16.301
Futbolmetrix -16.314
Jesper -16.819
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -16.854
FiveThirtyEight -16.909
MH -17.492
Anders T -17.910
Agnostic -19.408

Very close at the top between Werner and Jack C, nobody in the Hall of Shame.

UEL
-----------
MH -25.029
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -27.030
Futbolmetrix -27.508
Jesper -28.485
Collective Consciousness -28.870
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -29.593
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -29.794
Agnostic -30.498
FiveThirtyEight -30.942
Werner Pichler -35.890
Anders T -61.538

MH with a commanding lead, Anders, Werner and FiveThirtyEight in the Hall of Shame

UECL
---------
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -25.274
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -27.562
Collective Consciousness -27.671.
FiveThirtyEight -27.847
Werner Pichler -27.902
Jesper -28.030
Futbolmetrix -28.177
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -29.903
Agnostic -30.498
MH -33.436

Jack C again doing very well, MH can't carry his UEL form into the Conference League and falls into the Hall of Shame

You can download the master spreadsheet here:
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round

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Subject: Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:
2022-2023 Knockout Round
From: daniele.paserman@gmail.com (Futbolmetrix)
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 by: Futbolmetrix - Mon, 12 Jun 2023 11:38 UTC

On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 4:29:07 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Final SophCon standings:

Champions League:
-------------------------------
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.319
Werner Pichler -16.656
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -17.382
Betfair -17.382
Collective Consciousness -17.494
Futbolmetrix -17.578
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.861
FiveThirtyEight -17.902
Jesper -18.206
MH -18.878
Anders T -19.209
Agnostic -20.794

Very tight race, Werner would have come out on top had we used Brier scoring, while yours truly would be in first place had we used Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS). Needless to say, Ranked Probability Scoring is by far the best method, and truly reflects predicting skills.

Europa League
-----------------------
MH -26.415
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -28.151
Futbolmetrix -28.878
Jesper -29.871
Collective Consciousness -30.208
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.944
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.206
Agnostic -31.885
FiveThirtyEight -32.192
Werner Pichler -37.276
Anders T -62.924

MH takes this home convincingly (regardless of scoring method), embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.

Conference League
------------------------------
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -26.762
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.778
Collective Consciousness -29.022
FiveThirtyEight -29.091
Werner Pichler -29.289
Jesper -29.416
Futbolmetrix -29.445
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.004
Agnostic -31.885
MH -34.823

Another win for Jack C (again, regardless of methods). MH falls from the altar of first place to the dust of the Hall of Shame.

Thanks to all for playing. I will update the master spreadsheet and write some additional summary comments on the usual Wordpress site.

> https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round

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Subject: Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round
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 by: anders t - Mon, 12 Jun 2023 18:56 UTC

Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:

>Europa League
>-----------------------
>Anders T -62.924

I put "all of my money" on the winner of Barca and Man United...

--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round

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Subject: Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:
2022-2023 Knockout Round
From: wpichler@gmail.com (Werner Pichler)
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 by: Werner Pichler - Tue, 13 Jun 2023 09:42 UTC

On Monday, June 12, 2023 at 1:38:29 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 4:29:07 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
>
> Final SophCon standings:
>
> Champions League:
> -------------------------------
> Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.319
> Werner Pichler -16.656
> TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -17.382
> Betfair -17.382
> Collective Consciousness -17.494
> Futbolmetrix -17.578
> ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.861
> FiveThirtyEight -17.902
> Jesper -18.206
> MH -18.878
> Anders T -19.209
> Agnostic -20.794
>
> Very tight race, Werner would have come out on top had we used Brier scoring,

Mean Squared Error is where it's at, that's what I always say.

> while yours truly would be in first place had we used Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS). Needless to say, Ranked Probability
> Scoring is by far the best method, and truly reflects predicting skills.
>
> Europa League
> -----------------------
> MH -26.415
> Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -28.151
> Futbolmetrix -28.878
> Jesper -29.871
> Collective Consciousness -30.208
> TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.944
> ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.206
> Agnostic -31.885
> FiveThirtyEight -32.192
> Werner Pichler -37.276
> Anders T -62.924
>
> MH takes this home convincingly (regardless of scoring method), embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a
> couple of others.

And to think that I used to ace the Europa League predictions. Don't even know where I went
so spectacularly wrong. Probably Barcelona and Man United, like Anders (and 538 I wager).

> Conference League
> ------------------------------
> Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -26.762
> TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.778
> Collective Consciousness -29.022
> FiveThirtyEight -29.091
> Werner Pichler -29.289
> Jesper -29.416
> Futbolmetrix -29.445
> ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.004
> Agnostic -31.885
> MH -34.823
>
> Another win for Jack C (again, regardless of methods). MH falls from the altar of first place to the dust of the Hall of Shame.
>
>
>
> Thanks to all for playing. I will update the master spreadsheet and write some additional summary comments on the usual
> Wordpress site.

A question since I'm not very sure of the math - we obviously see lower scores in the CL predictions
because there were fewer rounds and fewer matches, but if we're correcting for that - is the CL
inherently easier to predict than EL and ECL? I'd think so.

Ciao,
Werner


>
> > https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round

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Subject: Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:
2022-2023 Knockout Round
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 by: MH - Tue, 13 Jun 2023 19:13 UTC

On 2023-06-12 05:38, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 4:29:07 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
>
> Final SophCon standings:
>
> Champions League:
> -------------------------------
> Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.319
> Werner Pichler -16.656
> TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -17.382
> Betfair -17.382
> Collective Consciousness -17.494
> Futbolmetrix -17.578
> ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.861
> FiveThirtyEight -17.902
> Jesper -18.206
> MH -18.878
> Anders T -19.209
> Agnostic -20.794
>
> Very tight race, Werner would have come out on top had we used Brier scoring, while yours truly would be in first place had we used Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS). Needless to say, Ranked Probability Scoring is by far the best method, and truly reflects predicting skills.
>
> Europa League
> -----------------------
> MH -26.415
> Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -28.151
> Futbolmetrix -28.878
> Jesper -29.871
> Collective Consciousness -30.208
> TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.944
> ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.206
> Agnostic -31.885
> FiveThirtyEight -32.192
> Werner Pichler -37.276
> Anders T -62.924
>
> MH takes this home convincingly (regardless of scoring method), embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.
>
>
> Conference League
> ------------------------------
> Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -26.762
> TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.778
> Collective Consciousness -29.022
> FiveThirtyEight -29.091
> Werner Pichler -29.289
> Jesper -29.416
> Futbolmetrix -29.445
> ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.004
> Agnostic -31.885
> MH -34.823

Remarkably bad considering I had West Ham at 0.2 to win the whole thing,
and Fiorentina at reasonable odds to make the final. Not obvious to me
where I was most wrong.
>
>
> Another win for Jack C (again, regardless of methods). MH falls from the altar of first place to the dust of the Hall of Shame.
>
>
>
> Thanks to all for playing. I will update the master spreadsheet and write some additional summary comments on the usual Wordpress site.
>
>
>> https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round

<u6ag3t$3mknl$1@dont-email.me>

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Subject: Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:
2022-2023 Knockout Round
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 by: MH - Tue, 13 Jun 2023 19:30 UTC

On 2023-06-12 05:38, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 4:29:07 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
>
> Final SophCon standings:
>
> Champions League:
> -------------------------------
> Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.319
> Werner Pichler -16.656
> TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -17.382
> Betfair -17.382
> Collective Consciousness -17.494
> Futbolmetrix -17.578
> ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.861
> FiveThirtyEight -17.902
> Jesper -18.206
> MH -18.878
> Anders T -19.209
> Agnostic -20.794
>
> Very tight race, Werner would have come out on top had we used Brier scoring, while yours truly would be in first place had we used Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS). Needless to say, Ranked Probability Scoring is by far the best method, and truly reflects predicting skills.
>
> Europa League
> -----------------------
> MH -26.415
> Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -28.151
> Futbolmetrix -28.878
> Jesper -29.871
> Collective Consciousness -30.208
> TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.944
> ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.206
> Agnostic -31.885
> FiveThirtyEight -32.192
> Werner Pichler -37.276
> Anders T -62.924
>
> MH takes this home convincingly (regardless of scoring method), embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.
>
>
> Conference League
> ------------------------------
> Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -26.762
> TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.778
> Collective Consciousness -29.022
> FiveThirtyEight -29.091
> Werner Pichler -29.289
> Jesper -29.416
> Futbolmetrix -29.445
> ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.004
> Agnostic -31.885
> MH -34.823
>
>
> Another win for Jack C (again, regardless of methods). MH falls from the altar of first place to the dust of the Hall of Shame.

I am confused. I looked at you master sheet and the scores on it don't
seem to correspond to the scores above. What am I missing?

>
>
>
> Thanks to all for playing. I will update the master spreadsheet and write some additional summary comments on the usual Wordpress site.
>
>
>> https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round

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Subject: Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:
2022-2023 Knockout Round
From: daniele.paserman@gmail.com (Futbolmetrix)
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 by: Futbolmetrix - Tue, 13 Jun 2023 20:15 UTC

On Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 3:30:08 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:
> On 2023-06-12 05:38, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 4:29:07 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> >
> > Final SophCon standings:
> >
> > Champions League:
> > -------------------------------
> > Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.319
> > Werner Pichler -16.656
> > TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -17.382
> > Betfair -17.382
> > Collective Consciousness -17.494
> > Futbolmetrix -17.578
> > ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.861
> > FiveThirtyEight -17.902
> > Jesper -18.206
> > MH -18.878
> > Anders T -19.209
> > Agnostic -20.794
> >
> > Very tight race, Werner would have come out on top had we used Brier scoring, while yours truly would be in first place had we used Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS). Needless to say, Ranked Probability Scoring is by far the best method, and truly reflects predicting skills.
> >
> > Europa League
> > -----------------------
> > MH -26.415
> > Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -28.151
> > Futbolmetrix -28.878
> > Jesper -29.871
> > Collective Consciousness -30.208
> > TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.944
> > ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.206
> > Agnostic -31.885
> > FiveThirtyEight -32.192
> > Werner Pichler -37.276
> > Anders T -62.924
> >
> > MH takes this home convincingly (regardless of scoring method), embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.
> >
> >
> > Conference League
> > ------------------------------
> > Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -26.762
> > TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.778
> > Collective Consciousness -29.022
> > FiveThirtyEight -29.091
> > Werner Pichler -29.289
> > Jesper -29.416
> > Futbolmetrix -29.445
> > ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.004
> > Agnostic -31.885
> > MH -34.823
> >
> >
> > Another win for Jack C (again, regardless of methods). MH falls from the altar of first place to the dust of the Hall of Shame.
> I am confused. I looked at you master sheet and the scores on it don't
> seem to correspond to the scores above. What am I missing?

Did you update the master sheet? These should be the updated versions:

UCL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/t1342w4191gxevt/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UCL2023_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0
UEL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/x5b9oghmu1x4xrc/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UEL2023_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0
UECL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/flzgeu1orizjeel/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UECL2023_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0

Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round

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Subject: Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:
2022-2023 Knockout Round
From: daniele.paserman@gmail.com (Futbolmetrix)
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 by: Futbolmetrix - Tue, 13 Jun 2023 20:17 UTC

On Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 3:13:34 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:
> On 2023-06-12 05:38, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 4:29:07 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> >
> > Final SophCon standings:
> >
> > Champions League:
> > -------------------------------
> > Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.319
> > Werner Pichler -16.656
> > TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -17.382
> > Betfair -17.382
> > Collective Consciousness -17.494
> > Futbolmetrix -17.578
> > ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.861
> > FiveThirtyEight -17.902
> > Jesper -18.206
> > MH -18.878
> > Anders T -19.209
> > Agnostic -20.794
> >
> > Very tight race, Werner would have come out on top had we used Brier scoring, while yours truly would be in first place had we used Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS). Needless to say, Ranked Probability Scoring is by far the best method, and truly reflects predicting skills.
> >
> > Europa League
> > -----------------------
> > MH -26.415
> > Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -28.151
> > Futbolmetrix -28.878
> > Jesper -29.871
> > Collective Consciousness -30.208
> > TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.944
> > ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.206
> > Agnostic -31.885
> > FiveThirtyEight -32.192
> > Werner Pichler -37.276
> > Anders T -62.924
> >
> > MH takes this home convincingly (regardless of scoring method), embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.
> >
> >
> > Conference League
> > ------------------------------
> > Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -26.762
> > TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.778
> > Collective Consciousness -29.022
> > FiveThirtyEight -29.091
> > Werner Pichler -29.289
> > Jesper -29.416
> > Futbolmetrix -29.445
> > ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.004
> > Agnostic -31.885
> > MH -34.823
> Remarkably bad considering I had West Ham at 0.2 to win the whole thing,
> and Fiorentina at reasonable odds to make the final. Not obvious to me
> where I was most wrong.

What killed you (and many others) were Basel and Lech Poznan

Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round

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Subject: Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:
2022-2023 Knockout Round
From: daniele.paserman@gmail.com (Futbolmetrix)
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 by: Futbolmetrix - Tue, 13 Jun 2023 20:39 UTC

On Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 5:42:26 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:

> A question since I'm not very sure of the math - we obviously see lower scores in the CL predictions
> because there were fewer rounds and fewer matches, but if we're correcting for that - is the CL
> inherently easier to predict than EL and ECL? I'd think so.
>

Exp(log score/number of participants) = geometric mean of probabilities assigned to the even that actually took place.

Collective Consciousness' geomean scores:
UCL: 0.335
UEL: 0.284
UECL: 0.298

Yes, this year it was easier to predict the Champions League relative to the other two competitions. I have the data and can easily check for previous years, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if this is broadly true in other years as well (even though there can be exceptions).

I should note that Aggie's geomean scores are 0.272 (UCL) and 0.265 (UEL/UECL), so our collective wisdom is not all that better than Aggie...

Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round

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Subject: Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:
2022-2023 Knockout Round
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 by: Futbolmetrix - Mon, 26 Jun 2023 20:18 UTC

On Monday, June 12, 2023 at 1:38:29 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> Agnostic -31.885
> FiveThirtyEight -32.192

> embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.

The embarrassment was too much to take for FiveThirtyEight, and they have retired their club soccer prediction model :-(

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/global-club-rankings/

Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round

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Subject: Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:
2022-2023 Knockout Round
From: wpichler@gmail.com (Werner Pichler)
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 by: Werner Pichler - Tue, 27 Jun 2023 11:20 UTC

On Monday, June 26, 2023 at 10:18:33 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Monday, June 12, 2023 at 1:38:29 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > Agnostic -31.885
> > FiveThirtyEight -32.192
> > embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.
>
> The embarrassment was too much to take for FiveThirtyEight, and they have retired their club soccer prediction model :-(
>
> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/global-club-rankings/

538 is in turmoil, following budget cuts and layoffs. Nate Silver himself will leave soon
or has already left. All their sports predictions have been discontinued.
Blame Disney.

Ciao,
Werner

Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round

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Subject: Re: The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest:
2022-2023 Knockout Round
From: daniele.paserman@gmail.com (Futbolmetrix)
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 by: Futbolmetrix - Tue, 27 Jun 2023 13:29 UTC

On Tuesday, June 27, 2023 at 1:20:04 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > The embarrassment was too much to take for FiveThirtyEight, and they have retired their club soccer prediction model :-(
> >
> > https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/global-club-rankings/
> 538 is in turmoil, following budget cuts and layoffs. Nate Silver himself will leave soon
> or has already left. All their sports predictions have been discontinued.

What, you mean that they are not shutting down because of the embarrassment of making the Hall of Shame? (Yeah, I knew that was the reason...)

> Blame Disney.

Always.

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