On Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 10:55:20 PM UTC, Real Mardin wrote:
> On Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 4:56:18 PM UTC, Real Mardin wrote:
> > On Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 4:53:51 AM UTC, Lléo wrote:
> > > Em terça-feira, 20 de dezembro de 2022 às 05:19:53 UTC-3, Werner Pichler escreveu:
> > > > On Tuesday, December 20, 2022 at 5:17:59 AM UTC+1, Lléo wrote:
> > > > > Em segunda-feira, 19 de dezembro de 2022 às 23:29:42 UTC-3, Sheridan Elliot escreveu:
> > > > > > If they stick with three-team groups at WC 2026, they will obviously
> > > > > > have to introduce penalty shoot-outs in the group phase to reduce the
> > > > > > chance of three-way ties.
> > > > >
> > > > > Yet another reason why three team groups are a bad idea. I was thinking of
> > > > > the possibility of collusions, but this too is an issue.
> > > > >
> > > > > Btw, this could have happened in 1982 too. Does anyone know how would they
> > > > > have handled it, had it happened? At least back then they could also consider
> > > > > first round records too
> > > >
> > > > I must have mentally skipped this part of your message. Sorry that I just
> > > > repeated what you already wrote.
> > > I was actually just wondering about that possibility, I didn't know that for
> > > a fact. So I indeed learned something from your information.
> > > > > (though, however improbable, it could happen that even these wouldn't be
> > > > > enough to break a tie).
> > > >
> > > > Not so improbable though, as the England example shows.
> > > Yes, it was close enough. And about the English complaints, while I agree with
> > > their gist, they should indeed have raised them a lot earlier. I mean, FIFA
> > > was never going to change the rules that deep into the tournament.
> > >
> > >
> > > Best regards,
> > >
> > > Lléo
> > STOP PRESS
> >
> > UEFA announce change to qualifying format to be implemented as of the World Cup 2026 qualifiers.
> >
> > The qualifying process will now be 12 groups, some of four teams, some of five.
> >
> > The first placed teams in each group qualify for the World Cup, with the runners up going into a qualification playoff.
> >
> > Further details and commentary to follow.
> >
> >
> > RM
> It had been announced in advance that UEFA would be changing it's qualifying format post Euro 2024. Thoughts turned to possibilities such as turning the system into a league or of integrating the European Championship or Nations League into the qualifying process, perhaps by having the top four ranked teams in the Euros qualify for the World Cup.
>
> Instead, what was announced was quite underwhelming. Not a change of format at all really, more of a tinkering. Still a system that has the European Championship and the World Cup qualifiers existing in isolation. Still a group based qualification system, only there will be more, smaller groups.
>
> The media release which announced the change claims that smaller groups are more dynamic and less predictable than larger groups. I looked back at some qualifying group results when UEFA used to have four team groups in the 80's and early 90's, and yes, there were some groups where the top two or even three spots were close. But then you get the same with 6 team groups. Plus even the most competitive four team groups don't solve the problem of the minnow who finishes so far behind the rest that matches against them are essentially meaningless.
>
> It feels like this was a missed opportunity to reform the UEFA qualifiers..
>
> RM

UEFA has since confirmed that the four best group winners from the 2024/25 Nations League based on the Nations League overall ranking will join the 12 group runners up from the 2026 World Cup qualifiers to form 16 team playoff round.

The 16 teams will be drawn into four paths of four with two rounds of single leg knockout matches determining the winners of each path. Path winners qualify for World Cup 2026!

On one hand I applaud the link between the Nations League and World Cup qualifying as it keeps an otherwise fairly pointless tournament relevant.

However, I really don't understand why they stuck with single leg playoffs (the did the same for WC 2022) when it clearly unfairly advantages one team and is completely at odds with the rest of the qualifying process as both the World Cup qualifying groups and Nations League are played on a home and away leg basis.

I think the single leg system impacted which teams went through, not necessarily for the good of the tournament. Would Wales (who were awful at Qatar 2022) have survived away legs with Austria and Ukraine, I wonder? For all their giant killing exploits in Palermo would North Macedonia have bested Italy over two legs?

RM

On Thursday, June 29, 2023 at 11:55:21 PM UTC+2, Real Mardin wrote:
>
> UEFA has since confirmed that the four best group winners from the 2024/25 Nations League based on the Nations League
> overall ranking will join the 12 group runners up from the 2026 World Cup qualifiers to form 16 team playoff round.
>
> The 16 teams will be drawn into four paths of four with two rounds of single leg knockout matches determining the winners
> of each path. Path winners qualify for World Cup 2026!
>
> On one hand I applaud the link between the Nations League and World Cup qualifying as it keeps an otherwise fairly
> pointless tournament relevant.
>
> However, I really don't understand why they stuck with single leg playoffs (the did the same for WC 2022) when it clearly
> unfairly advantages one team and is completely at odds with the rest of the qualifying process as both the World Cup
> qualifying groups and Nations League are played on a home and away leg basis.

Single-leg play-offs are one thing, but another problem is the disparity between Nations League cycles.
Everybody and their neighbour qualify for the Euros, but World Cup berths are much harder to come by, so
winning your Nations League group is more valuable every other time.

The clever thing for sub-top teams would be to deliberately get relegated from Nations League A/B
in 'Euro' cycles, and win your Nations League B/C group in 'World Cup' cycles.

Ciao,
Werner

> I think the single leg system impacted which teams went through, not necessarily for the good of the tournament. Would Wales (who were awful at Qatar 2022) have survived away legs with Austria and Ukraine, I wonder? For all their giant killing exploits in Palermo would North Macedonia have bested Italy over two legs?
>
> RM

On Friday, June 30, 2023 at 4:04:41 AM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Thursday, June 29, 2023 at 11:55:21 PM UTC+2, Real Mardin wrote:
> >
> > UEFA has since confirmed that the four best group winners from the 2024/25 Nations League based on the Nations League
> > overall ranking will join the 12 group runners up from the 2026 World Cup qualifiers to form 16 team playoff round.
> >
> > The 16 teams will be drawn into four paths of four with two rounds of single leg knockout matches determining the winners
> > of each path. Path winners qualify for World Cup 2026!
> >
> > On one hand I applaud the link between the Nations League and World Cup qualifying as it keeps an otherwise fairly
> > pointless tournament relevant.
> >
> > However, I really don't understand why they stuck with single leg playoffs (the did the same for WC 2022) when it clearly
> > unfairly advantages one team and is completely at odds with the rest of the qualifying process as both the World Cup
> > qualifying groups and Nations League are played on a home and away leg basis.
> Single-leg play-offs are one thing, but another problem is the disparity between Nations League cycles.
> Everybody and their neighbour qualify for the Euros, but World Cup berths are much harder to come by, so
> winning your Nations League group is more valuable every other time.
>
> The clever thing for sub-top teams would be to deliberately get relegated from Nations League A/B
> in 'Euro' cycles, and win your Nations League B/C group in 'World Cup' cycles.
>
> Ciao,
> Werner
> > I think the single leg system impacted which teams went through, not necessarily for the good of the tournament. Would Wales (who were awful at Qatar 2022) have survived away legs with Austria and Ukraine, I wonder? For all their giant killing exploits in Palermo would North Macedonia have bested Italy over two legs?

Finally - an incentive for top teams to take the Nations League seriously!

RM

The draw for the CAF World Cup 2026 qualifiers took place today:

Group A

Egypt
Burkina Faso
Guinea-Bissau
Sierra Leone
Ethiopia
Djibouti

Group B

Senegal
DR Congo
Mauritania
Togo
Sudan
South Sudan

(Sudan and South Sudan in the same group??)

Group C

Nigeria
South Africa
Benin
Zimbabwe
Rwanda
Lesotho

Group D

Cameroon
Cape-Verde
Angola
Libya
Eswatini
Mauritius

(What do the Indomitable Lions fans of rss think of this? Could be worse I reckon, although Cape-Verde looked handy at the last AFCON)

Group E

Morocco
Zambia
Congo
Tanzania
Niger
Eritrea

Group F

Cote d’Ivoire
Gabon
Kenya
Gambia
Burundi
Seychelles

Group G

Algeria
Guinea
Uganda
Mozambique
Botswana
Somalia

Group H

Tunisia
Equatorial Guinea
Namibia
Malawi
Liberia
Sao Tome and Principe

Group I

Mali
Ghana
Madagascar
Central African Republic
Comoros
Chad

Ghana were billed as the strongest pot 2 team and certainly the team even more established pot 1 teams were hoping to avoid, so this will be a blow to Mali. Still, when I tried to forecast who might qualify when they first announced WC2026 would be in CONCACAF'land I think I picked Mali because they'd had some good youth teams at the time who's players should have come good in time for the qualifiers. I might have just made that up, though.

The 9 group winners qualify for World Cup 2026, the four highest ranking runners up qualify for the CAF playoffs, the winners of which will qualify for the FIFA Playoff tournament.

The CAF qualifiers start on 13th November 2023.

RM

On Thursday, July 13, 2023 at 10:26:31 PM UTC+1, Real Mardin wrote:

> Group D
>
> Cameroon
> Cape-Verde
> Angola
> Libya
> Eswatini
> Mauritius
>
>
> (What do the Indomitable Lions fans of rss think of this? Could be worse I reckon, although Cape-Verde looked handy at the last AFCON)
>

Looks relatively easy to me. I think I'm happy with this.

Well, it's been called the cruelest round in World football, with 10 teams being eliminated from World Cup qualifying three years before the tournament starts, but AFC has made the draw for the first round of its World Cup 2026 qualifiers:

Afghanistan v Mongolia

Maldives v Bangladesh

Singapore v Guam

Yemen v Sri Lanka

Myanmar v Macau

Cambodia v Pakistan

Chinese Taipei v Timor-Leste

Indonesia v Brunei

Hong Kong v Bhutan

Nepal v Laos

First legs are on 12th October and return legs on 17th October 2023.

RM

CONMEBOL Matchday 1

Paraguay 0 - Peru 0

This result might not sound very exciting or significant, but it was the first qualifying match for World Cup 2026! We're underway!

Colombia 1 - Venezuela 0

Argentina 1 - Ecuador 0

Some guy called Messi (?) scored the winner.

Sadly there is no UK tv deal in place to broadcast or stream these matches. With the time difference they're on a bit too late for a work night, but I wouldn't have minded streaming them the next day. Hopefully this gets sorted out in time.

RM

On Friday, September 8, 2023 at 11:26:29 PM UTC+1, Real Mardin wrote:
> CONMEBOL Matchday 1
>
>
> Paraguay 0 - Peru 0
>
> This result might not sound very exciting or significant, but it was the first qualifying match for World Cup 2026! We're underway!
>
> Colombia 1 - Venezuela 0
>
> Argentina 1 - Ecuador 0
>
> Some guy called Messi (?) scored the winner.

The CONMEBOL Matchday 1 results for 8/9 were:

Uruguay 3 -Chile 1

Brazil 5 - Bolivia 1

RM

A little belated, but CONMEBOL Matchday 2 results:

Bolivia 0 - Argentina 3

Ecuador 2 - Uruguay 1

Venezuela 1 - Paraguay 0

Chile 0 - Colombia 0

Peru 0 - Brazil 1

And the standings after two rounds:

1st Brazil 6pts
2nd Argentina 6pts
3rd Colombia 4pts
4th Uruguay 3pts
5th Venezuela 3pts
6th Paraguay 1pt
7th Peru 1pt
8th Chile 1pt
9th Ecuador 0pts (deducted three points)
10th Bolivia 0pts

RM

OFC are the final confederation to confirm their qualifying process for World Cup 2026:

First Round: The four lowest ranked teams will play a three match knockout round, with the winner advancing to the second round.

Second Round: The qualifying team from the first round joins the seven highest ranking teams to form two four team groups. The top two teams from each group advance to the third round.

Third Round: The four qualifying teams from the second round play a three match knockout round. The winner qualifies for the World Cup, the runner up enters the Inter-Confederation playoff.

RM