A handful of one-sided games; a huge upset which broke a long, long streak;
a new record being set (youngest goalscorer); plus a nice couple of golaços.
Overall, this has been an interesting day at Conmebol WCQ.

Colombia 2-2 Uruguay

Rather entertaining game under Barranquilla's afternoon heat at Estadio
Metropolitano. Uruguay started the game with more intensity, while Colombia
seemed to be saving fuel somehow. But it was the hosts that came up ahead,
Santiago Arias crossed from the right wing and found James Rodrigues free in
the box to make it 1-0, at the 34'. The first half ended thusly, but the
second started in full throttle. Uruguay scored early (47'), Mathias Olivera
heading in a corner kick, but four minutes later Uribe would put Colombia
ahead again. Luis Diaz fought down near the left sideline and recovered the
ball, then sent it over to the right side to Borre, who crossed into the
penalty area to Uribe for a clean finish. The ball hit James Rodriguez's
arm before reaching Uribe but, upon VAR review, the goal stood anyway.

Colombia then flourished and began to dominate the game, and could have run
up the score beyond Uruguay's reach. A shot in the post, another in the bar
and one mano-a-mano blown away by Diaz somehow kept a dizzled Uruguay in
the game, whose fuel seemed to be in its last reserves. But they still had
enough to make Colombia pay dearly for their mistakes. In the 88th minute, a
long through pass set up Maxi Araujo for a mano-a-mano against Camilo Vargas.
The Colombian keeper brought him down, for a penalty kick and a red card.
Colombia still had a sub to make and brought in their reserve keeper Alvaro
Montero, but Darwin Nuñez scored and saved Uruguay a valuable away point.

Argentina 1-0 Paraguay

Although the score was tight, Argentina dominated and handily beat Paraguay
at Estadio Monumental de Nuñez, in Buenos Aires. Two minutes into the game,
a corner kick taken by Rodrigo De Paul found Otamendi in the box. He didn't
let the ball bounce and scored from a nice one-time volley finish. Paraguay
resisted as well as they could, but they could do little and Argentina created
several other scoring chances.

Messi was preserved and came into the game in the second half. He did find
the time to hit the post twice, first from a corner kick and then from a
free kick, quite similar to the one he scored against Ecuador in Round 1.

Bolivia 1-2 Ecuador

A somewhat even game at Estadio Hernando Siles, in La Paz. 16-year old Kendry
Paez, who is set to join Chelsea in the summer of 2025, scored the opener
for the visitors near the end of the first half. He became the youngest
goalscorer in Conmebol WCQ history. Rodrigo Ramallo scored the equaliser in
the 82nd minute and that seemed to be it, but six minutes into injury time
Kevin Rodriguez scored the winner for Ecuador.

Chile 2-0 Peru

Pacific Coast derby at Estadio Monumental de Santiago. Chile dominated the
game and forced some acrobatics out of Peruvian goalkeeper Pedro Gallese.
They eventually found their goals in the second half, by Diego Valdés (74th
minute) and Marcelino Nuñez (one minute into injury time).

Brasil 1-1 Venezuela

Big upset at Arena Pantanal, in Cuiabá, and a huge step ahead for Venezuela
on their quest to reach North America'2026. The game was largely an attack
vs defense drill, with Brasil piling on the pressure and Venezuela bravely
holding them at arms' length. It was thought that the floodgates would open
when, in the 49th minute, Neymar took a free kick and Gabriel Magalhães headed
in the 1-0. But they didn't, and Venezuela still held on, as Brasil piled up
mistake over mistake and missed several chances.

Eventually, on one of their rare breaks, Venezuela struck one back beautifully.
Cáceres spun around Gerson and found a pass towards the right wing to Savarino,
who crossed into the box. Eduard Bello struck a beautiful bycicle kick which
Ederson could only helplessly watch sailing in. Golaço of the round, no doubt
about it.

Brasil put Venezuela against the wall for the remaining of the game and the 10
minutes of time added on signalled by the referee, but the vinotinto held their
ground somehow and celebrated an unexpected and very valuable away point.

It was the second time in history that Venezuela pulls off a draw against Brasil.
Funnily enough both occasions were in Brasil, the earlier one being in 2009 (played
in Campo Grande), in the last round of the qualifiers. Also, with this result,
Venezuela broke Brasil's streak of 15 home wins in a row at the WCQ.

Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd, (mi = media inglese)]

1 Argentina 9 3 3 0 0 5-0 5+ (mi +2)
2 Brasil 7 3 2 1 0 7-2 5+ (mi 0)
3 Colombia 5 3 1 2 0 3-2 1+ (mi -2)
4 Uruguay 4 3 1 1 1 6-5 1+ (mi -1)
5 Chile 4 3 1 1 1 3-3 0 (mi -3)
6 Venezuela 4 3 1 1 1 2-2 0 (mi -1)
-----------------------------
7 Ecuador 3 3 2 0 1 4-3 0 (mi +1) (-3 points penalty)
-----------------------------
8 Paraguay 1 3 0 1 2 0-2 2- (mi -4)
9 Peru 1 3 0 1 2 0-3 3- (mi -4)
10 Bolivia 0 3 0 0 3 2-10 8- (mi -7)

Next round to be played on October 17th. In brackets below, the results of
these games in the WCQ cycles of 2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the
round robin ones so far):

Venezuela - Chile (2-1, 1-4, 0-2, 2-3, 0-1, 0-2, 1-1)

I guess Venezuela goes into their next match with morale soaring upwards.
This is an important game for their qualifying bid, the kind of one they'd
prefer not to drop points on. Chile isn't that good, but won't be a trivial
visitor, though. I'll call a very close win for the hosts, VEN 1-0 CHI (in
soph-terms: Venezuela 0.40, draw 0.30, Chile 0.30).

Paraguay - Bolivia (2-2, 2-1, 4-0, 1-0, 4-1, 5-1, 2-1)

This is a rather mediocre Paraguayan side, but they play the continent's
weakest team at Defensores del Chaco, in Asunción. They've drawn last time
around, but I think the hosts win this time. Say, PAR 1-0 BOL (in soph-terms:
Paraguay 0.70, draw 0.25, Bolivia 0.05).

Ecuador - Colombia (6-1, 0-2, 1-0, 0-0, 2-1, 0-0, 0-1)

This should be an interesting one, at Estadio Casa Blanca in Quito. Ecuador
would be also hovering the top of the table, had they not been given a 3 points
penalty. Should be a tough, close one. I'll call it a draw, 1-1 (in soph-terms:
Ecuador 0.35, draw 0.35, Colombia 0.30).

Uruguay - Brasil (0-2, 1-4, n/a, 0-4, 1-1, 1-0, n/a)

The old derby rears its head again. It undergoes an epoch of contrasts. On
one hand, it evokes the sheer weight of this match's history and traditions,
each side's players and achievements; the imagery of the celeste jerseys,
whose wearers always clinch their teeth and make of Estadio Centenario an
impregnable fortress, doubly so whenever the visitor is Brasil (or Argentina);
the long list of hard fought games, sometimes literally so, that would usually
end either in a draw or a close win for whoever plays as hosts.

On the other hand, reality: of all South American sides, Uruguay is the one
that is on the longest dry spell against Brasil. Recoba's mazy run through
the Brazilian defense, ended by a tackle by Cafu right under the referee's
nose, inside the penalty area, which resulted in a penalty kick converted by
Magallanes on July 1st, 2001, was their last hurrah so far. Since then, every
other South American team has beaten Brasil at least once (Venezuela did that
on a friendly in 2008, all others did so in competition game(s)). Uruguay is
still waiting. Indeed, Brasil's last three visits to El Centenario in WCQ
games, in the last 15 years or so, resulted in strangely easy wins.

For the game at hand, Brasil hasn't been playing well at all, having just
grinded a last minute win over Peru and then drawn Venezuela at home. Uruguay
is a much better side than anything Brasil has faced in this WCQ, but unlike
Brasil's former opponents, they'll be expected to come out and play. We'll
see how that matches up with Diniz's approach. I think Uruguay won't break
their drought on this one, but it won't be anything like the previous three
in Montevideo. I'll call it a 1-1 draw (in soph-terms: Uruguay 0.35, draw 0..35,
Brasil 0.30).

Peru - Argentina (0-2, 2-2, 1-1, 1-1, 1-3, 1-2, 0-0)

Peru doesn't look like they'll do much this time around, while Argentina remains
on a roll. At Estadio Nacional de Lima, maybe the hosts will try something, but
I don't really see Argentina dropping the ball on this one. I'll call PER 0-1 ARG
(in soph-terms: Peru 0.25, draw 0.30, Argentina 0.45).

Best regards,

Lléo

On Friday, October 13, 2023 at 5:13:44 AM UTC+1, Lléo wrote:

> Brasil 1-1 Venezuela
>
Didn't you give Brazil a probability of 1 of winning this? Or was it just a probability of 0 of Venezuela winning?

> Next round to be played on October 17th. In brackets below, the results of
> these games in the WCQ cycles of 2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the
> round robin ones so far):

Google groups was playing up earlier, so I couldn't see what you wrote about these matches, so my lack of guidance from a native South American is my excuse if I get a poor score on these. I just had to use Wikipedia.
>
> Venezuela - Chile (2-1, 1-4, 0-2, 2-3, 0-1, 0-2, 1-1)
>
> I guess Venezuela goes into their next match with morale soaring upwards.
> This is an important game for their qualifying bid, the kind of one they'd
> prefer not to drop points on. Chile isn't that good, but won't be a trivial
> visitor, though. I'll call a very close win for the hosts, VEN 1-0 CHI (in
> soph-terms: Venezuela 0.40, draw 0.30, Chile 0.30).

Venezuela 1 Chile 1
>
> Paraguay - Bolivia (2-2, 2-1, 4-0, 1-0, 4-1, 5-1, 2-1)
>
> This is a rather mediocre Paraguayan side, but they play the continent's
> weakest team at Defensores del Chaco, in Asunción. They've drawn last time
> around, but I think the hosts win this time. Say, PAR 1-0 BOL (in soph-terms:
> Paraguay 0.70, draw 0.25, Bolivia 0.05).

Paraguay 3 Bolivia 1
>
> Ecuador - Colombia (6-1, 0-2, 1-0, 0-0, 2-1, 0-0, 0-1)
>
> This should be an interesting one, at Estadio Casa Blanca in Quito. Ecuador
> would be also hovering the top of the table, had they not been given a 3 points
> penalty. Should be a tough, close one. I'll call it a draw, 1-1 (in soph-terms:
> Ecuador 0.35, draw 0.35, Colombia 0.30).

Ecuador 2 Colombia 2
>
> Uruguay - Brasil (0-2, 1-4, n/a, 0-4, 1-1, 1-0, n/a)
>
> The old derby rears its head again. It undergoes an epoch of contrasts. On
> one hand, it evokes the sheer weight of this match's history and traditions,
> each side's players and achievements; the imagery of the celeste jerseys,
> whose wearers always clinch their teeth and make of Estadio Centenario an
> impregnable fortress, doubly so whenever the visitor is Brasil (or Argentina);
> the long list of hard fought games, sometimes literally so, that would usually
> end either in a draw or a close win for whoever plays as hosts.
>
> On the other hand, reality: of all South American sides, Uruguay is the one
> that is on the longest dry spell against Brasil. Recoba's mazy run through
> the Brazilian defense, ended by a tackle by Cafu right under the referee's
> nose, inside the penalty area, which resulted in a penalty kick converted by
> Magallanes on July 1st, 2001, was their last hurrah so far. Since then, every
> other South American team has beaten Brasil at least once (Venezuela did that
> on a friendly in 2008, all others did so in competition game(s)). Uruguay is
> still waiting. Indeed, Brasil's last three visits to El Centenario in WCQ
> games, in the last 15 years or so, resulted in strangely easy wins.
>
> For the game at hand, Brasil hasn't been playing well at all, having just
> grinded a last minute win over Peru and then drawn Venezuela at home. Uruguay
> is a much better side than anything Brasil has faced in this WCQ, but unlike
> Brasil's former opponents, they'll be expected to come out and play. We'll
> see how that matches up with Diniz's approach. I think Uruguay won't break
> their drought on this one, but it won't be anything like the previous three
> in Montevideo. I'll call it a 1-1 draw (in soph-terms: Uruguay 0.35, draw 0.35,
> Brasil 0.30).

Uruguay 2 Brazil 2
>
> Peru - Argentina (0-2, 2-2, 1-1, 1-1, 1-3, 1-2, 0-0)
>
> Peru doesn't look like they'll do much this time around, while Argentina remains
> on a roll. At Estadio Nacional de Lima, maybe the hosts will try something, but
> I don't really see Argentina dropping the ball on this one. I'll call PER 0-1 ARG
> (in soph-terms: Peru 0.25, draw 0.30, Argentina 0.45).

Peru 0 Argentina 1
>
>
> Best regards,
>
> Lléo

On Monday, October 16, 2023 at 1:49:14 PM UTC+1, Mark wrote:
> On Friday, October 13, 2023 at 5:13:44 AM UTC+1, Lléo wrote:
>
> > Brasil 1-1 Venezuela
> >
> Didn't you give Brazil a probability of 1 of winning this? Or was it just a probability of 0 of Venezuela winning?
> > Next round to be played on October 17th. In brackets below, the results of
> > these games in the WCQ cycles of 2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the
> > round robin ones so far):
> Google groups was playing up earlier, so I couldn't see what you wrote about these matches, so my lack of guidance from a native South American is my excuse if I get a poor score on these. I just had to use Wikipedia.
> >
> > Venezuela - Chile (2-1, 1-4, 0-2, 2-3, 0-1, 0-2, 1-1)
> >
> > I guess Venezuela goes into their next match with morale soaring upwards.
> > This is an important game for their qualifying bid, the kind of one they'd
> > prefer not to drop points on. Chile isn't that good, but won't be a trivial
> > visitor, though. I'll call a very close win for the hosts, VEN 1-0 CHI (in
> > soph-terms: Venezuela 0.40, draw 0.30, Chile 0.30).
> Venezuela 1 Chile 1

Lleo 70 points
Mark 0 points
> >
> > Paraguay - Bolivia (2-2, 2-1, 4-0, 1-0, 4-1, 5-1, 2-1)
> >
> > This is a rather mediocre Paraguayan side, but they play the continent's
> > weakest team at Defensores del Chaco, in Asunción. They've drawn last time
> > around, but I think the hosts win this time. Say, PAR 1-0 BOL (in soph-terms:
> > Paraguay 0.70, draw 0.25, Bolivia 0.05).
> Paraguay 3 Bolivia 1

Lleo 100
Mark 60
> >
> > Ecuador - Colombia (6-1, 0-2, 1-0, 0-0, 2-1, 0-0, 0-1)
> >
> > This should be an interesting one, at Estadio Casa Blanca in Quito. Ecuador
> > would be also hovering the top of the table, had they not been given a 3 points
> > penalty. Should be a tough, close one. I'll call it a draw, 1-1 (in soph-terms:
> > Ecuador 0.35, draw 0.35, Colombia 0.30).
> Ecuador 2 Colombia 2

Lleo 90
Mark 80
> >
> > Uruguay - Brasil (0-2, 1-4, n/a, 0-4, 1-1, 1-0, n/a)
> >
> > The old derby rears its head again. It undergoes an epoch of contrasts. On
> > one hand, it evokes the sheer weight of this match's history and traditions,
> > each side's players and achievements; the imagery of the celeste jerseys,
> > whose wearers always clinch their teeth and make of Estadio Centenario an
> > impregnable fortress, doubly so whenever the visitor is Brasil (or Argentina);
> > the long list of hard fought games, sometimes literally so, that would usually
> > end either in a draw or a close win for whoever plays as hosts.
> >
> > On the other hand, reality: of all South American sides, Uruguay is the one
> > that is on the longest dry spell against Brasil. Recoba's mazy run through
> > the Brazilian defense, ended by a tackle by Cafu right under the referee's
> > nose, inside the penalty area, which resulted in a penalty kick converted by
> > Magallanes on July 1st, 2001, was their last hurrah so far. Since then, every
> > other South American team has beaten Brasil at least once (Venezuela did that
> > on a friendly in 2008, all others did so in competition game(s)). Uruguay is
> > still waiting. Indeed, Brasil's last three visits to El Centenario in WCQ
> > games, in the last 15 years or so, resulted in strangely easy wins.
> >
> > For the game at hand, Brasil hasn't been playing well at all, having just
> > grinded a last minute win over Peru and then drawn Venezuela at home. Uruguay
> > is a much better side than anything Brasil has faced in this WCQ, but unlike
> > Brasil's former opponents, they'll be expected to come out and play. We'll
> > see how that matches up with Diniz's approach. I think Uruguay won't break
> > their drought on this one, but it won't be anything like the previous three
> > in Montevideo. I'll call it a 1-1 draw (in soph-terms: Uruguay 0.35, draw 0.35,
> > Brasil 0.30).
> Uruguay 2 Brazil 2

Lleo 0
Mark 0
> >
> > Peru - Argentina (0-2, 2-2, 1-1, 1-1, 1-3, 1-2, 0-0)
> >
> > Peru doesn't look like they'll do much this time around, while Argentina remains
> > on a roll. At Estadio Nacional de Lima, maybe the hosts will try something, but
> > I don't really see Argentina dropping the ball on this one. I'll call PER 0-1 ARG
> > (in soph-terms: Peru 0.25, draw 0.30, Argentina 0.45).
> Peru 0 Argentina 1
> >
Lleo 85
Mark 85

Totals:
Lleo 345 points
Mark 225 points

I didn't do particularly well there.