I publish this everywhere else, so I might as well do it here...
With two weekends to go in the regular season (except for Army-Navy), 64 of the 82 bowl spots are accounted for; 58 teams have six or more wins, and there are six games (at the moment) between five-win teams:
Boise State - Utah State (11/18)
Georgia Tech - Syracuse (11/18)
Marshall - South Alabama (11/18)
Nebraska - Wisconsin (11/18)
Texas Tech - Central Florida (11/18)
Illinois - Northwestern (11/25)
If Hawaii wins out, it will be 6-7, and get in if there are not already 82 teams.
If there still are not 82, even if you include Hawaii, then James Madison and Jacksonville State both get in. (Should that make 83, the bowls, conferences, and teams will figure it out amongst themselves that James Madison is in and Jacksonville State is out...)
If there STILL aren't 82, 5-7 teams (or a 6-6 Army, which it can get to if it wins out) qualify in order of their 4-year APR, with ties broken by their one-year APR. Here is the current order among teams that can still get in on APR:
(Numbers in parentheses indicate how many wins each team has)
1. Northwestern (5)
2. Wisconsin (5)
3. Cincinnati (3)
4. Wake Forest (4)
5. Minnesota (5)
6. Boise State (5)
7. Rice (4)
8. Mississippi State (4)
9. Central Florida (5)
10. South Carolina (4)
11. Michigan State (3)
12. Ball State (3)
13. Baylor (3)
14. Army (4, but only 3 count)
15. Georgia Tech (5)
16. Temple (3)
17. Florida (5)
18. Indiana (3)
19. Eastern Michigan (4)
20. Purdue (3)
21. Middle Tennessee State (3)
22. Western Kentucky (5)
23. Navy (4; has 3 games left)
24. Nebraska (5)
25. Northern Illinois (4)
26. Virginia Tech (5)
27. South Florida (5)
28. Arkansas State (5)
29. Texas Tech (5)
30. San Diego State (3)
31. Utah State (5)
32. Old Dominion (4)
33. Illinois (5)
34. San Jose State (5)
35. Marshall (5)
36. Arkansas (3)
37. South Alabama (5)
38. Colorado State (4)
39. Buffalo (3)
40. Houston (4)
41. Syracuse (5)
42. Charlotte (3)
43. BYU (5)
44. Massachusetts (3)
45. North Texas (3)
46. Central Michigan (5)
47. TCU (4)
48. Louisiana (5)
49. Florida International (4)
50. UTEP (3)
51. New Mexico (3)
52. Alabama-Birmingham (3)
53. Western Michigan (4)
54. Southern Mississippi (3)
55. Tulsa (3)
56. Florida Atlantic (4)
Note that California, Colorado, and Washington State can get to 6-6 if they win out, but cannot go to a bowl if 5-7 because of a Pac-12 rule.

Slight correction: should all of the 3-win and 4-win teams lose out, Louisiana (#48 on the list) would get the 82nd bowl spot.
This means Florida Atlantic, Florida International, and Western Michigan have to win out to get into a bowl, and Alabama-Birmingham, New Mexico, Southern Mississippi, UTEP, and Tulsa not only need to win out but hope that at least one 5-7 team declines its bowl bid (and it has happened).

Another note: once all 82 bowl bids have been accepted, if a team withdraws from its bowl for any reason - say, a sudden case of sitoutitis - then that bowl's organizer can choose any team (well, any non-Pac-12 team) to take its place, regardless of record or APR.

On 2023-11-12, The NOTBCS Guy <don.p.del.grande@gmail.com> wrote:
> I publish this everywhere else, so I might as well do it here...
> With two weekends to go in the regular season (except for Army-Navy), 64 of the 82 bowl spots are accounted for; 58 teams have six or more wins, and there are six games (at the moment) between five-win teams:
> Boise State - Utah State (11/18)
> Georgia Tech - Syracuse (11/18)
> Marshall - South Alabama (11/18)
> Nebraska - Wisconsin (11/18)
> Texas Tech - Central Florida (11/18)
> Illinois - Northwestern (11/25)
> If Hawaii wins out, it will be 6-7, and get in if there are not already 82 teams.
> If there still are not 82, even if you include Hawaii, then James Madison and Jacksonville State both get in. (Should that make 83, the bowls, conferences, and teams will figure it out amongst themselves that James Madison is in and Jacksonville State is out...)
> If there STILL aren't 82, 5-7 teams (or a 6-6 Army, which it can get to if it wins out) qualify in order of their 4-year APR, with ties broken by their one-year APR. Here is the current order among teams that can still get in on APR:
> (Numbers in parentheses indicate how many wins each team has)
> 1. Northwestern (5)
> 2. Wisconsin (5)
> 3. Cincinnati (3)
> 4. Wake Forest (4)
> 5. Minnesota (5)
....
> 18. Indiana (3)
....
> 20. Purdue (3)
....
> 24. Nebraska (5)
....
> 33. Illinois (5)

Illinois sucks so bad it's even last at this.

--
Making the simple complex, that is easy -- anyone can do that.
But to make the complex simple, awesomely simple, that is
true creativity. -- Charles Mingus

> Illinois sucks so bad it's even last at this.

Actually, Illinois is ahead of Penn State and way ahead of Maryland, but they are both already bowl eligible (note that teams whose records are so bad that they can't become bowl eligible aren't on that list either)

On 2023-11-13, The NOTBCS Guy <don.p.del.grande@gmail.com> wrote:
>> Illinois sucks so bad it's even last at this.
>
> Actually, Illinois is ahead of Penn State and way ahead of Maryland,
> but they are both already bowl eligible (note that teams whose
> records are so bad that they can't become bowl eligible aren't on
> that list either)

Don't mess with my Weltschmerz by trying to buck me up. It defines me.

--
There's nothing sweeter than life nor more precious than time.
-- Barney