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sport / rec.sport.football.college / Undefeated Watch

SubjectAuthor
* Undefeated WatchJGibson
`* Undefeated WatchMichael Falkner
 `* Undefeated WatchJGibson
  `- Undefeated WatchJGibson

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Undefeated Watch

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Subject: Undefeated Watch
From: james.m.gibson@gmail.com (JGibson)
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 by: JGibson - Mon, 13 Nov 2023 18:01 UTC

Don't remember 7 undefeated teams this late in the season since I've been following. Even among the 1 and 2 loss teams, upsets seem to be at a minimum.

Anyway, here are the undefeated teams with their remaining schedule and the percent chance FPI suggests they have at winning out. Note that winning out would include the conference championship game.

Michigan, 10-0
@Maryland (6-4)
vs. Ohio State (10-0)
Big Ten Champ game if they beat Ohio State
Win out: 48.4%

Ohio State, 10-0
vs. Minnesota (5-5)
@Michigan (10-0)
Big Ten Champ game if they beat Michigan
Win out: 38.4%

Georgia, 10-0
@Tennessee (7-3)
@Georiga Tech (5-5)
SEC Champ game vs. Alabama (9-1)
Win out: 31.8%

Florida State, 10-0
vs. North Alabama (3-7 in FCS)
@Florida (5-5)
ACC Champ game vs. TBD
Win out: 62.9%

Washington, 10-0
@Oregon State (8-2)
vs. Washington State (4-6)
Pac-12 Champ game if they win 1 of those (maybe even if they lose both)
Win out: 15.8%

James Madison, 10-0
vs. Appalachian State (6-4)
@Coastal Carolina (7-3)
Win out: 42.7%

Liberty, 10-0
vs. Massachusetts (3-7)
@UTEP (3-7)
CUSA Champ Game vs. New Mexico State (8-3)
Win out: 70.4%

Re: Undefeated Watch

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Subject: Re: Undefeated Watch
From: darkstar7646@gmail.com (Michael Falkner)
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 by: Michael Falkner - Tue, 14 Nov 2023 00:49 UTC

We basically have the four, barring other results:

The Michigan/Ohio State winner
Georgia
Washington
Florida State.

Mike

Re: Undefeated Watch

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Subject: Re: Undefeated Watch
From: james.m.gibson@gmail.com (JGibson)
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 by: JGibson - Tue, 14 Nov 2023 03:08 UTC

On Monday, November 13, 2023 at 7:49:45 PM UTC-5, Michael Falkner wrote:
> We basically have the four, barring other results:
>
> The Michigan/Ohio State winner
> Georgia
> Washington
> Florida State.

Not guaranteed, though. Washington, for example, is an underdog right now (+1) against Oregon State this weekend. They'd likely be an underdog in a rematch with Oregon. Georgia would be an underdog to Alabama based on most computers (not sure where Vegas is going with this line). Only the Michigan/Ohio State winner and Florida State will be favored to win out.

Re: Undefeated Watch

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Subject: Re: Undefeated Watch
From: james.m.gibson@gmail.com (JGibson)
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 by: JGibson - Tue, 14 Nov 2023 15:07 UTC

On Monday, November 13, 2023 at 10:08:07 PM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
> On Monday, November 13, 2023 at 7:49:45 PM UTC-5, Michael Falkner wrote:
> > We basically have the four, barring other results:
> >
> > The Michigan/Ohio State winner
> > Georgia
> > Washington
> > Florida State.
> Not guaranteed, though. Washington, for example, is an underdog right now (+1) against Oregon State this weekend. They'd likely be an underdog in a rematch with Oregon. Georgia would be an underdog to Alabama based on most computers (not sure where Vegas is going with this line). Only the Michigan/Ohio State winner and Florida State will be favored to win out.

Well, actually, Liberty is also favored to win out. JMU is actually not, despite not having a CC game. FPI only gives JMU a 43% chance to win both, although they are favored in each individual game.

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