Rocksolid Light

Welcome to Rocksolid Light

mail  files  register  newsreader  groups  login

Message-ID:  

[Babe] Ruth made a big mistake when he gave up pitching. -- Tris Speaker, 1921

sport / rec.sport.football.college / Re: Chances of getting into a bowl

SubjectAuthor
* Chances of getting into a bowlThe NOTBCS Guy
`* Chances of getting into a bowlThe NOTBCS Guy
 `* Chances of getting into a bowlJGibson
  `- Chances of getting into a bowlJGibson

1
Chances of getting into a bowl

<33e19aee-cb62-4e56-aa22-104185fd73c6n@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://news.novabbs.org/sport/article-flat.php?id=69210&group=rec.sport.football.college#69210

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:40d4:b0:778:8bf4:b874 with SMTP id g20-20020a05620a40d400b007788bf4b874mr388419qko.7.1700416660015;
Sun, 19 Nov 2023 09:57:40 -0800 (PST)
X-Received: by 2002:a63:5d4c:0:b0:5b8:fe99:152d with SMTP id
o12-20020a635d4c000000b005b8fe99152dmr1067393pgm.7.1700416659701; Sun, 19 Nov
2023 09:57:39 -0800 (PST)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!usenet.blueworldhosting.com!diablo1.usenet.blueworldhosting.com!peer03.iad!feed-me.highwinds-media.com!news.highwinds-media.com!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
Date: Sun, 19 Nov 2023 09:57:39 -0800 (PST)
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=2601:640:c981:2080:586d:f58:2dfc:a460;
posting-account=CiN9zwoAAACEFRzDDza-FSMajy2RxjDh
NNTP-Posting-Host: 2601:640:c981:2080:586d:f58:2dfc:a460
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <33e19aee-cb62-4e56-aa22-104185fd73c6n@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Chances of getting into a bowl
From: don.p.del.grande@gmail.com (The NOTBCS Guy)
Injection-Date: Sun, 19 Nov 2023 17:57:40 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-Received-Bytes: 2293
 by: The NOTBCS Guy - Sun, 19 Nov 2023 17:57 UTC

Of the teams that haven't already guaranteed a bowl berth and have a chance either to get to 6 wins or qualify on APR with 5 wins (or, for James Madison and Jacksonville State, if there aren't 82 other 6-win teams), here are the probabilities of each one getting into a bowl, based on the game win probabilities from ESPN Analytics:
James Madison, 96.3069 %
Central Florida, 93.9727 %
Rice, 92.9435 %
Jacksonville State, 90.4918 % (this assumes that, if there are 81 berths taken by 6-win teams, James Madison gets taken over Jacksonville State for the last one)
Minnesota, 89.1221 %
Northern Illinois, 86.7135 %
Louisiana, 84.5 %
Mississippi State, 70.6513 %
Syracuse, 69.6 %
South Carolina, 66.2708 %
South Florida, 61.7308 %
Utah State, 61.6024 %
Marshall, 61.1 %
Virginia Tech, 60.4174 %
Illinois, 59.3 %
Old Dominion, 54.8 %
Navy, 44.9303 %
Eastern Michigan, 42.3225 %
Nebraska, 39.7419 %
Florida, 33.6486 %
California, 26.8 %
Wake Forest, 24.2649 %
Central Michigan, 20.2 %
BYU, 18.4 %
TCU, 15.6 %
Army, 14.4329 %
Washington State, 11.2 %
Ball State, 6.9779 %
Middle Tennessee State, 2.0426 %
Michigan State, 1.4384 %
San Diego State, 0.0012 %

Re: Chances of getting into a bowl

<994bfb57-dc9f-4630-a249-d4b4575ca0c5n@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://news.novabbs.org/sport/article-flat.php?id=69226&group=rec.sport.football.college#69226

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:35a:b0:77d:5e6f:90bc with SMTP id t26-20020a05620a035a00b0077d5e6f90bcmr39285qkm.3.1700592661957;
Tue, 21 Nov 2023 10:51:01 -0800 (PST)
X-Received: by 2002:ac8:6b8a:0:b0:41b:8141:9132 with SMTP id
z10-20020ac86b8a000000b0041b81419132mr96935qts.1.1700592661712; Tue, 21 Nov
2023 10:51:01 -0800 (PST)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!weretis.net!feeder8.news.weretis.net!proxad.net!feeder1-2.proxad.net!209.85.160.216.MISMATCH!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
Date: Tue, 21 Nov 2023 10:51:01 -0800 (PST)
In-Reply-To: <33e19aee-cb62-4e56-aa22-104185fd73c6n@googlegroups.com>
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=199.10.231.172; posting-account=CiN9zwoAAACEFRzDDza-FSMajy2RxjDh
NNTP-Posting-Host: 199.10.231.172
References: <33e19aee-cb62-4e56-aa22-104185fd73c6n@googlegroups.com>
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <994bfb57-dc9f-4630-a249-d4b4575ca0c5n@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Chances of getting into a bowl
From: don.p.del.grande@gmail.com (The NOTBCS Guy)
Injection-Date: Tue, 21 Nov 2023 18:51:01 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
 by: The NOTBCS Guy - Tue, 21 Nov 2023 18:51 UTC

> San Diego State, 0.0012 %

That would be quite a stunt, considering San Diego State is 3-8.

You would think NCAA.com would have an accurate set of FBS standings - but it says that San Diego State is 4-7.
It also has 5-6 Colorado State at 4-7.

Re: Chances of getting into a bowl

<96cf29d9-110c-4b18-b479-c95f6e3f09b1n@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://news.novabbs.org/sport/article-flat.php?id=69227&group=rec.sport.football.college#69227

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
X-Received: by 2002:a05:622a:1910:b0:41b:7f25:39f5 with SMTP id w16-20020a05622a191000b0041b7f2539f5mr13384qtc.2.1700603333312;
Tue, 21 Nov 2023 13:48:53 -0800 (PST)
X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:858f:b0:778:905f:277d with SMTP id
pf15-20020a05620a858f00b00778905f277dmr15321qkn.6.1700603333073; Tue, 21 Nov
2023 13:48:53 -0800 (PST)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!weretis.net!feeder8.news.weretis.net!proxad.net!feeder1-2.proxad.net!209.85.160.216.MISMATCH!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
Date: Tue, 21 Nov 2023 13:48:52 -0800 (PST)
In-Reply-To: <994bfb57-dc9f-4630-a249-d4b4575ca0c5n@googlegroups.com>
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=67.248.170.206; posting-account=lUSMzgoAAAD9pSEBNh2hXYPAopRTqF2m
NNTP-Posting-Host: 67.248.170.206
References: <33e19aee-cb62-4e56-aa22-104185fd73c6n@googlegroups.com> <994bfb57-dc9f-4630-a249-d4b4575ca0c5n@googlegroups.com>
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <96cf29d9-110c-4b18-b479-c95f6e3f09b1n@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Chances of getting into a bowl
From: james.m.gibson@gmail.com (JGibson)
Injection-Date: Tue, 21 Nov 2023 21:48:53 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
 by: JGibson - Tue, 21 Nov 2023 21:48 UTC

On Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 1:51:03 PM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> > San Diego State, 0.0012 %
> That would be quite a stunt, considering San Diego State is 3-8.
>
> You would think NCAA.com would have an accurate set of FBS standings - but it says that San Diego State is 4-7.
> It also has 5-6 Colorado State at 4-7.

Apparently NCAA.com thinks SDSU won that game two weeks ago? It also lists SDSU's streak as lost 1 and CSU's as won 1, whereas espn.com has SDSU's as lost 4 and CSU's as won 2.

Re: Chances of getting into a bowl

<94e7dbdf-7a4a-4704-bfc5-3bba7be12ff7n@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://news.novabbs.org/sport/article-flat.php?id=69228&group=rec.sport.football.college#69228

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:1aaa:b0:77d:5e6f:90bc with SMTP id bl42-20020a05620a1aaa00b0077d5e6f90bcmr9521qkb.3.1700603430163;
Tue, 21 Nov 2023 13:50:30 -0800 (PST)
X-Received: by 2002:ac8:75c4:0:b0:421:c319:ea48 with SMTP id
z4-20020ac875c4000000b00421c319ea48mr10207qtq.9.1700603429901; Tue, 21 Nov
2023 13:50:29 -0800 (PST)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!weretis.net!feeder8.news.weretis.net!feeder1.feed.usenet.farm!feed.usenet.farm!peer02.ams4!peer.am4.highwinds-media.com!peer03.iad!feed-me.highwinds-media.com!news.highwinds-media.com!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
Date: Tue, 21 Nov 2023 13:50:29 -0800 (PST)
In-Reply-To: <96cf29d9-110c-4b18-b479-c95f6e3f09b1n@googlegroups.com>
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=67.248.170.206; posting-account=lUSMzgoAAAD9pSEBNh2hXYPAopRTqF2m
NNTP-Posting-Host: 67.248.170.206
References: <33e19aee-cb62-4e56-aa22-104185fd73c6n@googlegroups.com>
<994bfb57-dc9f-4630-a249-d4b4575ca0c5n@googlegroups.com> <96cf29d9-110c-4b18-b479-c95f6e3f09b1n@googlegroups.com>
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <94e7dbdf-7a4a-4704-bfc5-3bba7be12ff7n@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Chances of getting into a bowl
From: james.m.gibson@gmail.com (JGibson)
Injection-Date: Tue, 21 Nov 2023 21:50:30 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-Received-Bytes: 2118
 by: JGibson - Tue, 21 Nov 2023 21:50 UTC

On Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 4:48:55 PM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
> On Tuesday, November 21, 2023 at 1:51:03 PM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> > > San Diego State, 0.0012 %
> > That would be quite a stunt, considering San Diego State is 3-8.
> >
> > You would think NCAA.com would have an accurate set of FBS standings - but it says that San Diego State is 4-7.
> > It also has 5-6 Colorado State at 4-7.
> Apparently NCAA.com thinks SDSU won that game two weeks ago? It also lists SDSU's streak as lost 1 and CSU's as won 1, whereas espn.com has SDSU's as lost 4 and CSU's as won 2.

But if you go onto scores and track that game down, NCAA.com shows Colorado State winning 22-19.

1
server_pubkey.txt

rocksolid light 0.9.81
clearnet tor