because it is saying Alabama had a 0.1% chance to win(presumably on the play before the 4th down pass for a touchdown).

There is *no way* that is right. The chance of alabama(or any offense) converting 4th and goal from the 30 yard line is obviously poor, but it's far higher than 1 out of 1000. Even true 50 yard hail marys have a much better chance than that, and this was 20 yards closer and just a long pass and not a hail mary.

I don't know what the exact percentages are, but I would say Alabama(or really most teams in that situation) convert that 4th and 30 about 3-4% of the time......so obviously poor, but nowhere near as poor as this 0.1% nonsense.

And since in this case converting the 4th and goal at the 30 is going to closely track winning(just lagging a little behind since a small percent of the time the team then down 3 could come back), espn is off by a factor of about 30x lol.....

I just don't see how they got 0.1%.....I was surprised watching the play of course, but not 1/1000 surprised. But trying to score on 4th and goal from the 30 is certainly not a 1/1000 hope........

On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 10:28:19 PM UTC-8, michael anderson wrote:
> because it is saying Alabama had a 0.1% chance to win(presumably on the play before the 4th down pass for a touchdown).
>
> There is *no way* that is right. The chance of alabama(or any offense) converting 4th and goal from the 30 yard line is obviously poor, but it's far higher than 1 out of 1000. Even true 50 yard hail marys have a much better chance than that, and this was 20 yards closer and just a long pass and not a hail mary.

Remember, though, mia -- that's to win the game.

To do that, Alabama must:

* convert 4th and goal from the 31
* and THEN prevent Auburn from getting a quick tying score and Auburn wins in OT or a quick Auburn winning score

I think <0.1% is actually correct here.

Mike

On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 12:32:54 AM UTC-6, Michael Falkner wrote:
> On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 10:28:19 PM UTC-8, michael anderson wrote:
> > because it is saying Alabama had a 0.1% chance to win(presumably on the play before the 4th down pass for a touchdown).
> >
> > There is *no way* that is right. The chance of alabama(or any offense) converting 4th and goal from the 30 yard line is obviously poor, but it's far higher than 1 out of 1000. Even true 50 yard hail marys have a much better chance than that, and this was 20 yards closer and just a long pass and not a hail mary.
> Remember, though, mia -- that's to win the game.
>
> To do that, Alabama must:
>
> * convert 4th and goal from the 31
> * and THEN prevent Auburn from getting a quick tying score and Auburn wins in OT or a quick Auburn winning score

but there were 25 seconds left after the kickoff, and auburn had either 1 or 0 timeout(oh yeah and their offense sucks).

You can't possibly give Auburn more than a 15 percent chance to get a fg there, and then even if you give them a 15% chance to get a fg, that means you're giving them a 7.5% chance to win the game with OT(which again is overly generous because the 6 win team doesn't have a 50% chance in OT against a highly ranked team).....so basically you can see that Alabama converting 4th and goal and Alabama winning are going to be pretty darn close/track fairly closely. If there were like 1:00 left or so, that would affect the numbers more and they wouldn't track so closely.....

>
> I think <0.1% is actually correct here.

No it can't be.....since as I said above we know true hail marys are much more likely to be completed than that, and this was much easier/more likely than a true hail mary. Even if you give Auburn a ridiculous 15% chance to win the game *after* the converted 4th and 30(which is at least two times to high), that means for the 0.1% to be right the chance of alabama converting that fourth and 30 still rounds to 1/1000.......which again is just not realistic.

If they play that 4th and goal at the 30 one hundred times, I bet Alabama converts 3 or 4 of them each set of 100. Keep in mind you may even get a few PI's and then they move the ball up for a higher percentage try as well(which all goes into the percentages)......

But the idea that they are only going to convert a 30 yard pass play roughly one out of 1000 times? Lmao no way.......if people believe that they don't conceptually get how rare 1/1000 is.

>
> Mike