1) Barring two specific teams winning in late games (Cal is up 6-0 on UCLA early 2nd), the two transitioning ineligibles may be needed after all.

2) Conference title games:

Pac-12: Washington-Oregon (Friday 5 PM Pacific, Las Vegas Allegiant Stadium, ABC)

Big XII: Oklahoma State-Texas (Saturday 9 AM Pacific, AT&T Stadium, ABC)

SEC: Alabama-Georgia. (Saturday 1 PM Pacific, Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, CBS)

ACC: Florida State-Louisville (Saturday 5 PM Pacific, Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, ABC)

Big Ten: Iowa-Michigan (Saturday 5 PM Pacific, Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN, FOX)

***************

American Athletic: SMU at Tulane (Saturday, 1 PM Pacific, ABC)

Conference USA: New Mexico State at Liberty (Friday 4 PM Pacific, CBS Sports Network)

MAC: Miami (OH)-Toledo (Saturday 9 AM Pacific, Ford Field in Detroit, ESPN)

Sun Belt: Appalachian State at Troy (Saturday 1 PM Pacific, ESPN)

Mountain West: 12 PM Pacific on FOX, opponents and site to be determined between San Jose State, Boise State, and UNLV by a four-computer composite after all regular-season games finish tonight.

3) CFP...

Start with the easy part: Tulane beats SMU, they go as the Go5. If they lose, Liberty goes if they beat New Mexico State. After that...

We still do have the potential for four undefeated conference champions in the Power Five: Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Florida State. If all four win, there would almost certainly have to be your four.

If not...

Alabama beats Georgia: That would probably be the largest potential to screw an undefeated Florida State. FSU certainly did NOT turn heads in beating Florida tonight, so that might well get a situation where both Alabama and Georgia get in.

Iowa beats Michigan: Oof. That would probably be the "worst" loss of the four, and would make for a decent case to get Michigan out. And especially if Alabama beats Georgia, that could open the door, say, for all sorts of Top Four chaos, including Texas getting involved if they win.

Louisville beats Florida State: FSU is eliminated, period-end. They may be ANYWAY if they slog through Louisville and don't do more than just win (would the Committee think, for example, a one-loss Ohio State or even Georgia would be better than this FSU team with the new QB?)

Oregon beats Washington: That probably is a CFP "Quarterfinal". The winner is in, basically regardless.

Texas: Needs to win and get help. Probably needs Georgia to win (or Alabama jumps them) and to probably get the nod over Florida State in the discussion of, say, Georgia-Michigan-ORE/WSH winner-#4.

Alabama: Needs to win and get the good graces of the Committee. Something like Michigan-ORE/WSH winner-Alabama-Georgia or something to that effect.

Ohio State: Probably needs the weekend to chalk out (Michigan, Georgia, ORE-WSH winner), Texas losing would probably be a significant help, and Florida State continues to muddle. At that point, you could have a discussion between Ohio State and Florida State for #4 -- that's why you need Texas to probably lose.

4) Finally, teams who have probably punched their ticket outside the title games to the CFP:

Missouri

Penn State, Ole Miss, Oklahoma need to see if Iowa or Louisville spoil the party.

Mike

On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 10:54:32 PM UTC-6, Michael Falkner wrote:
> 1) Barring two specific teams winning in late games (Cal is up 6-0 on UCLA early 2nd), the two transitioning ineligibles may be needed after all.
>
> 2) Conference title games:
>
> Pac-12: Washington-Oregon (Friday 5 PM Pacific, Las Vegas Allegiant Stadium, ABC)
>
> Big XII: Oklahoma State-Texas (Saturday 9 AM Pacific, AT&T Stadium, ABC)
>
> SEC: Alabama-Georgia. (Saturday 1 PM Pacific, Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, CBS)
>
> ACC: Florida State-Louisville (Saturday 5 PM Pacific, Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, ABC)
>
> Big Ten: Iowa-Michigan (Saturday 5 PM Pacific, Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN, FOX)
>
> ***************
>
> American Athletic: SMU at Tulane (Saturday, 1 PM Pacific, ABC)
>
> Conference USA: New Mexico State at Liberty (Friday 4 PM Pacific, CBS Sports Network)
>
> MAC: Miami (OH)-Toledo (Saturday 9 AM Pacific, Ford Field in Detroit, ESPN)
>
> Sun Belt: Appalachian State at Troy (Saturday 1 PM Pacific, ESPN)
>
> Mountain West: 12 PM Pacific on FOX, opponents and site to be determined between San Jose State, Boise State, and UNLV by a four-computer composite after all regular-season games finish tonight.
>
> 3) CFP...
>
> Start with the easy part: Tulane beats SMU, they go as the Go5. If they lose, Liberty goes if they beat New Mexico State. After that...
>
> We still do have the potential for four undefeated conference champions in the Power Five: Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Florida State. If all four win, there would almost certainly have to be your four.
>
> If not...
>
> Alabama beats Georgia: That would probably be the largest potential to screw an undefeated Florida State. FSU certainly did NOT turn heads in beating Florida tonight, so that might well get a situation where both Alabama and Georgia get in.
>
> Iowa beats Michigan: Oof. That would probably be the "worst" loss of the four, and would make for a decent case to get Michigan out. And especially if Alabama beats Georgia, that could open the door, say, for all sorts of Top Four chaos, including Texas getting involved if they win.
>
> Louisville beats Florida State: FSU is eliminated, period-end. They may be ANYWAY if they slog through Louisville and don't do more than just win (would the Committee think, for example, a one-loss Ohio State or even Georgia would be better than this FSU team with the new QB?)

No....if FSU beats Louisville, regardless of how unimpressive, they get a spot. The fact that tOSU would be favored or looks better is not going to be relevant. They'd be a 13-0 conference champion with enough decent wins that you couldn't keep them out, even if nobody really believes they are one of the top 4 teams in the country.

Here is how things break down and it's very simple:

-Michigan is going to easily beat Iowa and get in. Thinking about whether or not michigan would get in without beating iowa is silly because Iowa is terrible.
-The georgia/Bama winner is in(Georgia #1 overall likely if they win). As for 1 loss champion bama v 1 loss champion texas, yes Texas fans are going to complain and maybe they have a point. but the reality is that the win over georgia would just be too big. You beat the two time defending champ who has won 29 straight and is #1......that win is so huge it overcomes any hth deficit. But georgia is likely to win and probably easily(since alabama isn't very good)
-The washington/oregon winner is also in. probably oregon. And the loser is obviously out.

So right there that's three spots- Michigan, the georgia/bama winner(likely georgia), and the oregon/washington winner(likely oregon)

That leaves one spot between FSU, Texas, and tOSU. Here is how that will be awarded:
-if FSU beats Lville, they are in and get the spot.

-If FSU loses, they are out and then Texas is next up. If Texas wins the big12 championship game and FSU loses to Lville, Texas gets the last spot.

-That means the only scenario by which OHio state backdoors in is that FSU has to lose and Texas has to lose. Both of these things *could* happen, and I would actually say there is a good chance of 1/2 happening. But I'd put the odds at both happening at about 15-18%. So tosu still has a little hope, but out of the teams in the mix now they need the most help.

On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 10:54:32 PM UTC-6, Michael Falkner wrote:
> 1) Barring two specific teams winning in late games (Cal is up 6-0 on UCLA early 2nd), the two transitioning ineligibles may be needed after all.
>
> 2) Conference title games:
>
> Pac-12: Washington-Oregon (Friday 5 PM Pacific, Las Vegas Allegiant Stadium, ABC)
>
> Big XII: Oklahoma State-Texas (Saturday 9 AM Pacific, AT&T Stadium, ABC)
>
> SEC: Alabama-Georgia. (Saturday 1 PM Pacific, Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, CBS)
>
> ACC: Florida State-Louisville (Saturday 5 PM Pacific, Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, ABC)
>
> Big Ten: Iowa-Michigan (Saturday 5 PM Pacific, Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN, FOX)
>
> ***************
>
> American Athletic: SMU at Tulane (Saturday, 1 PM Pacific, ABC)
>
> Conference USA: New Mexico State at Liberty (Friday 4 PM Pacific, CBS Sports Network)
>
> MAC: Miami (OH)-Toledo (Saturday 9 AM Pacific, Ford Field in Detroit, ESPN)
>
> Sun Belt: Appalachian State at Troy (Saturday 1 PM Pacific, ESPN)
>
> Mountain West: 12 PM Pacific on FOX, opponents and site to be determined between San Jose State, Boise State, and UNLV by a four-computer composite after all regular-season games finish tonight.
>
> 3) CFP...
>
> Start with the easy part: Tulane beats SMU, they go as the Go5. If they lose, Liberty goes if they beat New Mexico State. After that...
>
> We still do have the potential for four undefeated conference champions in the Power Five: Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Florida State. If all four win, there would almost certainly have to be your four.
>
> If not...
>
> Alabama beats Georgia: That would probably be the largest potential to screw an undefeated Florida State. FSU certainly did NOT turn heads in beating Florida tonight, so that might well get a situation where both Alabama and Georgia get in.
>
> Iowa beats Michigan: Oof. That would probably be the "worst" loss of the four, and would make for a decent case to get Michigan out. And especially if Alabama beats Georgia, that could open the door, say, for all sorts of Top Four chaos, including Texas getting involved if they win.
>
> Louisville beats Florida State: FSU is eliminated, period-end. They may be ANYWAY if they slog through Louisville and don't do more than just win (would the Committee think, for example, a one-loss Ohio State or even Georgia would be better than this FSU team with the new QB?)
>
> Oregon beats Washington: That probably is a CFP "Quarterfinal". The winner is in, basically regardless.
>
> Texas: Needs to win and get help. Probably needs Georgia to win (or Alabama jumps them) and to probably get the nod over Florida State in the discussion of, say, Georgia-Michigan-ORE/WSH winner-#4.
>
> Alabama: Needs to win and get the good graces of the Committee. Something like Michigan-ORE/WSH winner-Alabama-Georgia or something to that effect.
>
> Ohio State: Probably needs the weekend to chalk out (Michigan, Georgia, ORE-WSH winner), Texas losing would probably be a significant help, and Florida State continues to muddle. At that point, you could have a discussion between Ohio State and Florida State for #4 -- that's why you need Texas to probably lose.

no, you really couldn't.....

FSU would be an undefeated conference champion and have wins over LSU, Clemson, Louisville
tOSU would have a loss, wouldn't have won their division, and have wins over Notre dame and penn state

I don't believe FSU is any good and I would pick tOSU to win that matchup, but the committee looks at things like resume, wins, conference championship status, etc.....and doing so it's clear FSU is getting in if they beat Lville.

Ohio State's path to the playoffs is very clear: they need both FSU and Texas to lose next week. Those things happen and they are in. Texas just needs FSU to lose.

Let's try this again. Damn Google, that's TWICE now...

On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 10:43:40 PM UTC-8, michael anderson wrote:
> On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 10:54:32 PM UTC-6, Michael Falkner wrote:

> > 3) CFP...

> No....if FSU beats Louisville, regardless of how unimpressive, they get a spot. The fact that tOSU would be favored or looks better is not going to be relevant. They'd be a 13-0 conference champion with enough decent wins that you couldn't keep them out, even if nobody really believes they are one of the top 4 teams in the country.

That's what SHOULD happen.

But if nobody believes they're one of the best four, especially with Ohio State floating around somewhere in the muck, doubly so if Alabama beats Georgia, then how do you vote them in?

That's going to make this week's rankings interesting. How far do you drop Ohio State?
> Here is how things break down and it's very simple:
>
> -Michigan is going to easily beat Iowa and get in. Thinking about whether or not michigan would get in without beating iowa is silly because Iowa is terrible.

Then realign the Big Ten YESTERDAY. Because that entire division is shit and has no business sending a team to the B10CG.

None.

Be thankful that conference is being realigned, because, barring some real changes, even a shit USC or UCLA should RSFCk the Big Ten West in football.

> -The georgia/Bama winner is in(Georgia #1 overall likely if they win). As for 1 loss champion bama v 1 loss champion texas, yes Texas fans are going to complain and maybe they have a point. but the reality is that the win over georgia would just be too big. You beat the two time defending champ who has won 29 straight and is #1......that win is so huge it overcomes any hth deficit. But georgia is likely to win and probably easily(since alabama isn't very good)

And you just gave the case as to how Florida State can and WILL (IMODO) get fucked. Michigan and Bama win, you get a CFP of Michigan-Pac12 Winner-Bama-Georgia.

> -The washington/oregon winner is also in. probably oregon. And the loser is obviously out.

Yep.
> So right there that's three spots- Michigan, the georgia/bama winner(likely georgia), and the oregon/washington winner(likely oregon)

You can probably lock them in right now regardless of whether Michigan beats Iowa. There really is only one spot in some dispute right now.
> That leaves one spot between FSU, Texas, and tOSU. Here is how that will be awarded:
> -if FSU beats Lville, they are in and get the spot.

They gotta show the Committee something, or you state yourself in another post that you believe at least one of the other two teams is better, even if FSU is 13-0.

> -If FSU loses, they are out and then Texas is next up. If Texas wins the big12 championship game and FSU loses to Lville, Texas gets the last spot.

The win over Bama definitely helps. That's for sure. But then you best hope, if you're Texas, you and Bama both win and the Committee respects the HTH -- and you don't think they will (see above).
Mike

On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 10:50:24 PM UTC-8, michael anderson wrote:

> no, you really couldn't.....
>
> FSU would be an undefeated conference champion and have wins over LSU, Clemson, Louisville

None of which are that good. Clemson's about 20 right now. Louisville would be there or worse. The best win would be LSU, and that might not be much more than Ohio State's over Penn State.

And the Committee has already partially invalidated the first two for Florida State in the first place with the injury.

> tOSU would have a loss, wouldn't have won their division, and have wins over Notre dame and penn state

Penn State would be at least the level of LSU, if not superior. Notre Dame would come down to MarKee ValYou, and, again, the Committee has already diminished FSU's wins over LSU and Clemson to some extent.
> I don't believe FSU is any good and I would pick tOSU to win that matchup, but the committee looks at things like resume, wins, conference championship status, etc.....and doing so it's clear FSU is getting in if they beat Lville.

We have the argument every year. If you pick Ohio State to win, since an undefeated conference champion is not necessarily a guarantee of anything, you vote for Ohio State at that point. Will the Committee?

> Ohio State's path to the playoffs is very clear: they need both FSU and Texas to lose next week. Those things happen and they are in. Texas just needs FSU to lose.

I think there's a real problem. FSU wins, it's three for one spot between them, Texas, and Ohio State, even if two of them are conference champs.

Again, we have the argument every year. If being a conference champ is that important, then make it an absolute qualifier. (Irrelevant once we go to the 12-team system.)

Mike

And we now have the Mountain West, and the computers fuck off San Jose State, even with the win at UNLV.

Boise State goes to UNLV for the Mountain West title game.

Mike