Now that I have found a site with accurate standings...
It could be a long night on Saturday in West Point. If I calculated this correctly, then, if SMU beats Navy and exactly 13 of these 18 teams lose:
Ball State
BYU
California
Central Michigan
Colorado State
Florida
Illinois
Louisiana
Marshall
Michigan State
Nebraska
Northern Illinois
Old Dominion
South Florida
TCU
Utah State
Virginia Tech
Washington State
....then Army-Navy is for a bowl game. I mention "late night" as Cal-UCLA starts at 10:30 PM Eastern, and Colorado State-Hawaii starts at 11 PM.

Eastern Michigan won on Tuesday, so there are 14 spots remaining. Assuming two of them go to James Madison and Jacksonville State, the eligibility order of the potential 5-7 teams that can still get in (assuming nobody declines a bowl bid - it has happened before) is:
(* indicates a team with 4 counted wins - this includes Army, as it can't count both of its FCS wins)
1. *Wake Forest
2. Minnesota
3. Rice
4. Mississippi State
5. Central Florida
6. South Carolina
7. *Michigan State
8. *Ball State
9. *Army
10. Florida
11. *Middle Tennessee State
12. Navy
13. Nebraska
14. Northern Illinois
15. Virginia Tech
16. South Florida
17. Utah State
These teams need to be 6-6 to get in, so they need to win:
BYU
California
Central Michigan
Colorado State
Illinois
Louisiana
Marshall
Old Dominion
Syracuse
TCU
Washington State

A couple of other notes:
1. A 5-7 Army with two FCS wins, and a 5-8 Hawaii, cannot go to a bowl game..
2. If it comes down to one of James Madison and Jacksonville State being eligible and the other is not, there is nothing that prevents Jacksonville State from being the team selected. Even though JMU has a higher APR, APR only applies when ranking 5-win teams.
3. There is nothing that says, "The standings immediately after the conference championship games are played are used to determine bowl eligibility." In other words, the NCAA cannot say to Navy, "Yes, you beat Army and finished 6-6, and some 5-7 teams were invited to bowl games, but all of the bowl bids were given out last weekend."
The NCAA's nightmare scenario: if the last two teams in before Army-Navy are James Madison and Jacksonville State; there is no provision for deciding which one has to withdraw.

On Wednesday, November 22, 2023 at 10:27:43 AM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:

> A couple of other notes:
> 1. A 5-7 Army with two FCS wins, and a 5-8 Hawaii, cannot go to a bowl game.
> 2. If it comes down to one of James Madison and Jacksonville State being eligible and the other is not, there is nothing that prevents Jacksonville State from being the team selected. Even though JMU has a higher APR, APR only applies when ranking 5-win teams.

I don't get this James Madison and Jacksonville State nonsense. They should either be eligible for the bowl or completely not eligible due to their provisional standing (and I don't really understand the purpose of that but they already ruled that they can't get a waiver there). None of this, well, our rule bans them from the postseason but we only mean it in some cases.

On Wednesday, November 22, 2023 at 7:27:43 AM UTC-8, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> Now that I have found a site with accurate standings...
> It could be a long night on Saturday in West Point. If I calculated this correctly, then, if SMU beats Navy

Which they did...

> Ball State L
> BYU TBD
> California TBD
> Central Michigan L
> Colorado State TBD
> Florida TBD
> Illinois L
> Louisiana W
> Marshall W
> Michigan State L
> Nebraska L
> Northern Illinois W
> Old Dominion W
> South Florida TBD
> TCU L
> Utah State W
> Virginia Tech W
> Washington State

Nope, that's six.

Now to your other list:

These teams need to be 6-6 to get in, so they need to win:
BYU TBD
California TBD
Central Michigan L
Colorado State TBD
Illinois L
Louisiana W
Marshall W
Old Dominion W
Syracuse W
TCU L
Washington State TBD

So I have 10 spots left now.

Mike

BYU and Washington State are both L's.

Mike

> BYU and Washington State are both L's.

I count 77 teams with 6 wins, with only 6 games remaining where anybody else can become bowl eligible:
Florida - Florida State
South Carolina - Clemson
South Florida - Charlotte
Cal - UCLA
Colorado State - Hawaii
Navy - Army
If there aren't at least 82 teams, the order is now:
1 / 2 - James Madison, Jacksonville State
3 - Minnesota
4 - Mississippi State
5 - South Carolina

On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 6:33:08 PM UTC-8, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> > BYU and Washington State are both L's.
> I count 77 teams with 6 wins, with only 6 games remaining where anybody else can become bowl eligible:
> Florida - Florida State

That's a no.

> South Carolina - Clemson

Nope.

> South Florida - Charlotte

Yep.

> Cal - UCLA

TBD

> Colorado State - Hawaii

TBD

> Navy - Army

TBD

81 at the most.

> If there aren't at least 82 teams, the order is now:
> 1 / 2 - James Madison, Jacksonville State
> 3 - Minnesota
> 4 - Mississippi State
> 5 - South Carolina

Mike

> 81 at the most.
> > If there aren't at least 82 teams, the order is now:
> > 1 / 2 - James Madison, Jacksonville State
> > 3 - Minnesota
> > 4 - Mississippi State
> > 5 - South Carolina

If Cal and Colorado State both win, it looks like "the NCAA's worst nightmare" actually happens: it has to figure out a way to make sure both James Madison and Jacksonville State don't accept bowl bids, because if both do and Navy then beats Army, that's 83 teams. One of JMU and JSU would have to go - but which one?
Somebody may have Frisco, Texas on the phone in case they need to break out the "Frisco Bowl" like they did in 2021, and then call Minnesota and tell them, "Er, did we say you weren't eligible for a bowl this year?"

On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 8:13:36 PM UTC-8, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> > 81 at the most.
> > > If there aren't at least 82 teams, the order is now:
> > > 1 / 2 - James Madison, Jacksonville State
> > > 3 - Minnesota
> > > 4 - Mississippi State
> > > 5 - South Carolina
> If Cal and Colorado State both win, it looks like "the NCAA's worst nightmare" actually happens: it has to figure out a way to make sure both James Madison and Jacksonville State don't accept bowl bids, because if both do and Navy then beats Army, that's 83 teams. One of JMU and JSU would have to go - but which one?
> Somebody may have Frisco, Texas on the phone in case they need to break out the "Frisco Bowl" like they did in 2021, and then call Minnesota and tell them, "Er, did we say you weren't eligible for a bowl this year?"

Advertise it as benefit for the good academic record (APR), if I recall correctly...

Mike

On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 8:16:23 PM UTC-8, Michael Falkner wrote:
> On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 8:13:36 PM UTC-8, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> > > 81 at the most.
> > > > If there aren't at least 82 teams, the order is now:
> > > > 1 / 2 - James Madison, Jacksonville State
> > > > 3 - Minnesota
> > > > 4 - Mississippi State
> > > > 5 - South Carolina
> > If Cal and Colorado State both win, it looks like "the NCAA's worst nightmare" actually happens: it has to figure out a way to make sure both James Madison and Jacksonville State don't accept bowl bids, because if both do and Navy then beats Army, that's 83 teams. One of JMU and JSU would have to go - but which one?

And there's one. Cal is gonna rout UCLA to get a bowl.

Hawaii is up 21-10 on Colorado State in the 3rd, though.

Mike

On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 1:30:56 AM UTC-5, Michael Falkner wrote:
> On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 8:16:23 PM UTC-8, Michael Falkner wrote:
> > On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 8:13:36 PM UTC-8, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> > > > 81 at the most.
> > > > > If there aren't at least 82 teams, the order is now:
> > > > > 1 / 2 - James Madison, Jacksonville State
> > > > > 3 - Minnesota
> > > > > 4 - Mississippi State
> > > > > 5 - South Carolina
> > > If Cal and Colorado State both win, it looks like "the NCAA's worst nightmare" actually happens: it has to figure out a way to make sure both James Madison and Jacksonville State don't accept bowl bids, because if both do and Navy then beats Army, that's 83 teams. One of JMU and JSU would have to go - but which one?
> And there's one. Cal is gonna rout UCLA to get a bowl.
>
> Hawaii is up 21-10 on Colorado State in the 3rd, though.
>

And Hawaii wins on a 51 yard field goal as time expires.

> And Hawaii wins on a 51 yard field goal as time expires.

And thanks to that, the NCAA dodged a bullet. James Madison and Jacksonville State are both bowl eligible regardless of what happens in the Army-Navy game.
The last bowl spot goes to Navy if it beats Army, or to Minnesota if Army wins.

On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 9:22:21 AM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> > And Hawaii wins on a 51 yard field goal as time expires.
> And thanks to that, the NCAA dodged a bullet. James Madison and Jacksonville State are both bowl eligible regardless of what happens in the Army-Navy game.
> The last bowl spot goes to Navy if it beats Army, or to Minnesota if Army wins.

Both Palm and McMurphy have both Navy and Army ineligible for bowl games, as they had to be eligible before selection. But apparently, the last time this situation occurred (2009), the Eagle Bank Bowl had the slot as Army if they won and UCLA if Army lost.

On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 8:17:21 PM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
> On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 9:22:21 AM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> > > And Hawaii wins on a 51 yard field goal as time expires.
> > And thanks to that, the NCAA dodged a bullet. James Madison and Jacksonville State are both bowl eligible regardless of what happens in the Army-Navy game.
> > The last bowl spot goes to Navy if it beats Army, or to Minnesota if Army wins.
> Both Palm and McMurphy have both Navy and Army ineligible for bowl games, as they had to be eligible before selection. But apparently, the last time this situation occurred (2009), the Eagle Bank Bowl had the slot as Army if they won and UCLA if Army lost.

Here's what Nick Bromberg says:

However, bowl rules stipulate that both Navy and Army must have six wins by the time the bowl field is announced on Dec. 3 to make the postseason.

> Here's what Nick Bromberg says:
>
> However, bowl rules stipulate that both Navy and Army must have six wins by the time the bowl field is announced on Dec. 3 to make the postseason.

I have never heard this, and it clearly is not in the NCAA Bylaws, which only say that each team's last regular season game must be on or before the Sunday after the second Saturday in December. I have also never heard of a requirement that a bowl field "must be announced by (the day the CFP bowls are announced)", either.
The 2023-24 Football Postseason Handbook, which describes the policies concerning bowl games, has not been made public, but the 2022-23 Handbook also makes no mention of having to meet the bowl eligibility requirement by a particular date.