So, this is actually an important debate for NY6 games. With the G5 spot and also Louisville's slot in the Orange Bowl, you're going to need to be top 10 to get a NY6 slot. Teams 9 through 12 seem to clearly be Missouri, Mississippi, Penn State, and Oklahoma. But the order is not so clear cut.

On Joby's Football Nitty Gritty (which is best simulation of the committee I could find), they have: 9. Missouri, 10. Oklahoma, 11. Penn State, 12. Mississippi. The actual CFP rankings go 9. Missouri, 10. Penn State, 11. Mississippi, 12. Oklahoma. ESPN's SOR has it as 8. Mississippi (with Oregon 9th), 10. Missouri, 11. Penn State, 12. Oklahoma. Dolphin Standard, which is built on essentially the same principles as ESPN's SOR has 9. Oklahoma, 10. Missouri, 11. Penn State, 12. Mississippi

Looking at those 4 based on best wins and all losses:
Mississippi:
Best wins: Tulane, LSU
Losses: Alabama, Georgia

Penn State:
Best wins: Iowa, West Virginia
Losses: Ohio State, Michigan

Missouri:
Best wins: Kansas State, Tennessee
Losses: LSU, Georgia

Oklahoma:
Best wins: Texas, West Virginia
Losses: Kansas, Oklahoma State

Oklahoma has the best win (Texas) but also the worst losses. Oklahoma's win over WVU, Missouri's win over Tennessee and Penn State's win over Iowa were quite dominant, whereas Mississippi's wins weren't as dominant.

Basically, you could flip a coin.

Let's looks at the consequences of not getting in the NY6:
Penn State: drops to the Citrus Bowl against an SEC team
Mississippi / Missouri: drops to the Citrus Bowl against Big Ten team, if both, then the next one would go to the ReliaQuest (formerly Outback) Bowl against ACC team.
Oklahoma: would drop to the Alamo Bowl, presumably against Arizona (Washington and Oregon should both be in the NY6).

The dropoff for Oklahoma seems worse than for the others. And if you drop one SEC team and not the other, you can have a not quite NY6 game in the Citrus Bowl between Penn State and the one that didn't make it between Missouri and Mississippi.

Of course, all this assumes Texas beats Oklahoma State and Michigan beats Iowa because if those teams lose, then OK State and Iowa get automatic slots into the NY6, and now you'd have to finish top 8 and not just top 10.

On Wednesday, November 29, 2023 at 10:31:39 AM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
> So, this is actually an important debate for NY6 games. With the G5 spot and also Louisville's slot in the Orange Bowl, you're going to need to be top 10 to get a NY6 slot. Teams 9 through 12 seem to clearly be Missouri, Mississippi, Penn State, and Oklahoma. But the order is not so clear cut.
>
> On Joby's Football Nitty Gritty (which is best simulation of the committee I could find), they have: 9. Missouri, 10. Oklahoma, 11. Penn State, 12. Mississippi. The actual CFP rankings go 9. Missouri, 10. Penn State, 11. Mississippi, 12. Oklahoma. ESPN's SOR has it as 8. Mississippi (with Oregon 9th), 10. Missouri, 11. Penn State, 12. Oklahoma. Dolphin Standard, which is built on essentially the same principles as ESPN's SOR has 9. Oklahoma, 10.. Missouri, 11. Penn State, 12. Mississippi

Meant to throw the Dolphin psuedopoll in there as well, which simulates ap / coaches AP Top 25 voting:
9. Oklahoma, 10. Penn State, 11. Missouri, 12. Missisippi