It's clear at this point that if the 4 undefeated P5 teams win, that's your CFP. Easy enough. What if the defeated teams knock them off their perch?

Oregon / Washington - with Washington ranked 3rd and Oregon ranked 5th, it appears that the winner of this game should claim one slot in the CFP. Oregon's only loss would then be by 3 on the road to a team that it then beat at a neutral site and gave its only loss to. I don't think a split should keep you out, so Oregon would be treated almost like an undefeated team.

Alabama / Georgia - This is where it could get really interesting. Auburn could have solved this problem by playing defense on Alabama last week. But here we are. Alabama wins here, and HTH suggests Alabama would be ranked above Georgia (both have one loss with HTH as tiebreaker, which the committee seems to be keen on for teams with the same record). If Texas also wins, does that dictate Texas > Alabama > Georgia? No matter what you say about Alabama improving and maybe being better than Texas now, the fact is Texas went to Alabama and won by double digits, and that game has to count (again if the teams have the same record. If Texas loses to OK State, then they won't need to be ranked above a 1-loss Alabama).

Iowa / Michigan - Michigan is currently #2, but a loss to Iowa, I think, would knock them as far down as they could go but still be ahead of Ohio State based on HTH. If Georgia and Florida State win, and Oregon beats Washington, you could have Michigan just outside at #5 with both Oregon and Washington in the top 4.

Texas / Oklahoma State - For the sake of the top 4, the CFP might really like Oklahoma State to pull this upset, because then it ends the whole Texas vs. Alabama debate (if they both lose, I guess it would come up again but with much fewer consequences). OK State is not getting into the top 10, and I don't think Texas falls out of the top 12 with a loss here, so unless other weird things happen, an OK State win would have few consequences vs. how it's currently ranked.

Florida State / Louisville - Florida State needs this win to stay in the CFP. I can't seem them dropping FSU beyond 4th as long as they win this game.. A loss would send them tumbling, probably to the back of the line for 1-loss teams but ahead of 2-loss teams. Looks like Louisville gets the Orange Bowl either way.

Tulane / SMU - Right now Tulane has the G5 slot in the NY6. SMU win opens up for either themselves, Liberty, or Toledo (which I hadn't noticed until Michael Falkner pointed out were ranked in the coaches' poll). Toledo is way down (60th) in the Game Control metric compared to any of Tulane, Liberty, or SMU (23rd through 25th). And also behind in SOR, although not nearly as much. I'm thinking that among G5 teams, right now, it's pretty much: 1.. Tulane, 2. Liberty, 3. SMU. So if Tulane wins, they keep the slot. If SMU wins, it depends on the Liberty result.

Liberty / NMSU - bring this up because of the above. I think a Liberty win and a Tulane loss will give the final NY6 slot to an undefeated Liberty team. A loss would clearly knock them out.

The others, which include Boise State / UNLV, Toledo / Miami (OH), and Appalachian State / Troy will have much less effect especially since bowls stopped necessarily locking in their champion and just going to the one that makes more sense regionally or for TV.

On Wednesday, November 29, 2023 at 10:11:41 AM UTC-6, JGibson wrote:
> It's clear at this point that if the 4 undefeated P5 teams win, that's your CFP. Easy enough. What if the defeated teams knock them off their perch?
>
> Oregon / Washington - with Washington ranked 3rd and Oregon ranked 5th, it appears that the winner of this game should claim one slot in the CFP. Oregon's only loss would then be by 3 on the road to a team that it then beat at a neutral site and gave its only loss to. I don't think a split should keep you out, so Oregon would be treated almost like an undefeated team.
>
> Alabama / Georgia - This is where it could get really interesting. Auburn could have solved this problem by playing defense on Alabama last week. But here we are. Alabama wins here, and HTH suggests Alabama would be ranked above Georgia (both have one loss with HTH as tiebreaker, which the committee seems to be keen on for teams with the same record). If Texas also wins, does that dictate Texas > Alabama > Georgia? No matter what you say about Alabama improving and maybe being better than Texas now, the fact is Texas went to Alabama and won by double digits, and that game has to count

So in general I do respect hth, but it's not a firm rule. It depends on the situation.

In this case you have a situation where Alabama wouldn't have just a 'big' win. They wouldn't even have a 'humongous' win. They will have a neutral site win in the sec championship game over the #1 team in the country now. A team that has won 29 straight games. 29. A team that has won the last two national titles. That's not even a season defining win.....that's basically a decade defining win.

So at some point, a win becomes so big as to even overcome hth. Now I know georgia isn't as good(especially on defense) as they were
2 years ago or even last year. They have looked vulnerable at times this year. But still.....they are a team currently ranked #1 and going for their 3rd straight national title and 30th straight win.

So I think what we do in this situations is talk about and try to predict how things will fall after a win like that, but we don't get the whole perspective because it hasn't actually happened. So if it were to happen(and everyone were to watch such a historic win), a lot of people saying you can't rank Bama above Texas may change their mind once it actually happens. because once it happens it typically has a different feel.

Now that said, another complicating factor here is that Alabama(just like Texas) has had a few shaky performances this second half of the year too. They blew chunks in the arkansas game, and rivalry game against auburn or not that was not a playoff looking team.

So this narrative(if Alabama beats Georgia) that Alabama has come on super strong over the second half and are some juggernaught that doesn't resemble how they were earlier in the year is one I don't completely buy. If that were actually the case(and Jalen Milroe was actually good and Bama had blown out Arky and Auburn) I wouldn't have any issue definately and easily placing Bama over Texas(and oregon) with a Georgia win.

So I don't really know what I would do....or what should happen. I don't think Alabama is very good, and I think georgia is about to
beat them down tommorrow(I have georgia ML and in parlays and ATS). But my overall point is that when you start introducing wins of this magnitude in the equation, those wins are sooooo massive that they may change the game and break down rigid rules in our head like hth......