If we had next years conferences and rules and this years teams, how would a playoff play out?

As I understand it, the 4 top conference champions get the 4 top seeds and a bye, the 5th champion gets an auto invite.

For who is actually good, I am using the prebowl Sagarin predictor (SP).

Seeding/Name/CFP Ranking/(Sagarin Predictor rank)
1 Michigan(B1G) 1 (1)
2 Texas (SEC) 3 (5)
3 FSU (ACC) 5 (13)
4 Zona (B12) 14 (19)
5 Washington 2 (11)
6 Bama 4 (6)
7 Georgia 6 (7)
8 tOSU 7 (2)
9 Oregon 8 (3)
10 Missou 9 (21)
11 PSU 10 (4)
12 Liberty(CUSA) 23 (51)

Not clear who to give the B12 autobid to--- the CFP likes Zona, OSU was the closest this year and KSU was by far Sagarin's favorite (#9). I went with the CFP.

The best team left out is Oklahoma (#8 SP)--- this isn't a gross injustice as they were jumped by 3 Conference champions+ Missou..

Playing it out using SP.

1st Round: at stadium of better seed.
Washington -18.5 > Liberty
Bama -2.5 > PSU --home field is the margin
Georgia -13.5 > Missou
tOSU -3 > Oregon --mostly home field

Quarters
Mich -2 > tOSU
Texas -0.5 > Georgia
Bama -4.5 > FSU
Wash -6.5 > Zona

Semis
Mich -7 > Wash
Texas -0 > Bama

Final
Mich -4 > Texas

#5 is a good place to be: getting the 2 weakest autobids---- most years this is probably an easier spot than 1,2 or 3.

#8--- tOSU who is Sagarin #2--- played 2 games against the third and best teams, but I don't think this would be typical for the #8 seed.

On Monday, December 18, 2023 at 11:54:50 AM UTC-5, RSFC Moderator wrote:
> If we had next years conferences and rules and this years teams, how would a playoff play out?

> #5 is a good place to be: getting the 2 weakest autobids---- most years this is probably an easier spot than 1,2 or 3.

Thinking about this a little more: the #5 seed will often (40%? ) be the second best team by quality or results. Sometimes they will be the best team. So, it's not crazy that they have a reasonable easy path. That said, having the easiest path to the semis seems a touch too easy.

On Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 9:13:35 AM UTC-5, RSFC Moderator wrote:
> On Monday, December 18, 2023 at 11:54:50 AM UTC-5, RSFC Moderator wrote:
> > If we had next years conferences and rules and this years teams, how would a playoff play out?
> > #5 is a good place to be: getting the 2 weakest autobids---- most years this is probably an easier spot than 1,2 or 3.
> Thinking about this a little more: the #5 seed will often (40%? ) be the second best team by quality or results. Sometimes they will be the best team. So, it's not crazy that they have a reasonable easy path. That said, having the easiest path to the semis seems a touch too easy.

Did they for sure stick with the top 4 conference champions get the top 4 seeds and the byes?

On Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 12:56:28 PM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
> On Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 9:13:35 AM UTC-5, RSFC Moderator wrote:
> > On Monday, December 18, 2023 at 11:54:50 AM UTC-5, RSFC Moderator wrote:
> > > If we had next years conferences and rules and this years teams, how would a playoff play out?
> > > #5 is a good place to be: getting the 2 weakest autobids---- most years this is probably an easier spot than 1,2 or 3.
> > Thinking about this a little more: the #5 seed will often (40%? ) be the second best team by quality or results. Sometimes they will be the best team. So, it's not crazy that they have a reasonable easy path. That said, having the easiest path to the semis seems a touch too easy.
> Did they for sure stick with the top 4 conference champions get the top 4 seeds and the byes?

Hmm.

In 2022 they said:
"As previously announced, the expanded 12-team playoff will be made up of the six conference champions ranked highest by the committee (no minimum ranking requirement), and the six highest-ranked teams not among the conference champions. The four highest-ranked conference champions would be seeded Nos. 1 through 4 and receive first-round byes. The other eight seeds — Nos. 5 through 12 — would play in the first round."[1]

In 2023 they said:
"The new 12-team College Football Playoff field will include the six highest-ranked conference champions, which will receive automatic bids. The top four teams will receive a first-round bye to the quarterfinals. The six highest-ranked teams remaining will round out the 12-team format."[2]

Both are slightly dated, because they have reduced the conference autobids to 5.

I think the 2023 wording means the same as the 2022--- the "top four" are selected from conference champions before the field is rounded out--- but it's more ambiguous than the 2022 wording.

This year, the top 5 CFP teams are all conference champions but it's probably the last time that happens.

-rsfcm

[1] https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2022-12-01/college-football-playoff-expand-12-teams-starting-2024-season
[2] https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-12-03/how-12-team-college-football-playoff-will-work-teams-schedule-bids

On Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 2:12:01 PM UTC-5, RSFC Moderator wrote:
> On Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 12:56:28 PM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
> > On Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 9:13:35 AM UTC-5, RSFC Moderator wrote:
> > > On Monday, December 18, 2023 at 11:54:50 AM UTC-5, RSFC Moderator wrote:
> > > > If we had next years conferences and rules and this years teams, how would a playoff play out?
> > > > #5 is a good place to be: getting the 2 weakest autobids---- most years this is probably an easier spot than 1,2 or 3.
> > > Thinking about this a little more: the #5 seed will often (40%? ) be the second best team by quality or results. Sometimes they will be the best team. So, it's not crazy that they have a reasonable easy path. That said, having the easiest path to the semis seems a touch too easy.
> > Did they for sure stick with the top 4 conference champions get the top 4 seeds and the byes?
> Hmm.
>
> In 2022 they said:
> "As previously announced, the expanded 12-team playoff will be made up of the six conference champions ranked highest by the committee (no minimum ranking requirement), and the six highest-ranked teams not among the conference champions. The four highest-ranked conference champions would be seeded Nos. 1 through 4 and receive first-round byes. The other eight seeds — Nos. 5 through 12 — would play in the first round."[1]
>
> In 2023 they said:
> "The new 12-team College Football Playoff field will include the six highest-ranked conference champions, which will receive automatic bids. The top four teams will receive a first-round bye to the quarterfinals. The six highest-ranked teams remaining will round out the 12-team format."[2]
>
> Both are slightly dated, because they have reduced the conference autobids to 5.
>
> I think the 2023 wording means the same as the 2022--- the "top four" are selected from conference champions before the field is rounded out--- but it's more ambiguous than the 2022 wording.
>
> This year, the top 5 CFP teams are all conference champions but it's probably the last time that happens.

Right. I was just thinking that with Oklahoma and Texas going to the SEC that the Big 12 champion (which was hypothetically Arizona in your example) will often not be one of the strongest 4 teams. And that's the #5 seed would have the easy path to the semis. But if they changed it to top 4 overall, regardless of championship status, then that issue goes away.

One thing they might consider is selection & seeding as separate processes instead of one combined process. In the whole argument about "strongest team" vs. "team with the best season", I actually like teams with the best seasons for selection & then strongest teams for seeding. The problem with a mis-seed is that the most affected team is not the team that is incorrectly seeded, but the opponent of said team.

On Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 3:03:36 PM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
> On Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 2:12:01 PM UTC-5, RSFC Moderator wrote:
> > On Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 12:56:28 PM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
> > > On Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 9:13:35 AM UTC-5, RSFC Moderator wrote:
> > > > On Monday, December 18, 2023 at 11:54:50 AM UTC-5, RSFC Moderator wrote:
> > > > > If we had next years conferences and rules and this years teams, how would a playoff play out?
> > > > > #5 is a good place to be: getting the 2 weakest autobids---- most years this is probably an easier spot than 1,2 or 3.
> > > > Thinking about this a little more: the #5 seed will often (40%? ) be the second best team by quality or results. Sometimes they will be the best team. So, it's not crazy that they have a reasonable easy path. That said, having the easiest path to the semis seems a touch too easy.
> > > Did they for sure stick with the top 4 conference champions get the top 4 seeds and the byes?
> > Hmm.
> >
> > In 2022 they said:
> > "As previously announced, the expanded 12-team playoff will be made up of the six conference champions ranked highest by the committee (no minimum ranking requirement), and the six highest-ranked teams not among the conference champions. The four highest-ranked conference champions would be seeded Nos. 1 through 4 and receive first-round byes. The other eight seeds — Nos. 5 through 12 — would play in the first round."[1]
> >
> > In 2023 they said:
> > "The new 12-team College Football Playoff field will include the six highest-ranked conference champions, which will receive automatic bids. The top four teams will receive a first-round bye to the quarterfinals. The six highest-ranked teams remaining will round out the 12-team format."[2]
> >
> > Both are slightly dated, because they have reduced the conference autobids to 5.
> >
> > I think the 2023 wording means the same as the 2022--- the "top four" are selected from conference champions before the field is rounded out--- but it's more ambiguous than the 2022 wording.
> >
> > This year, the top 5 CFP teams are all conference champions but it's probably the last time that happens.
> Right. I was just thinking that with Oklahoma and Texas going to the SEC that the Big 12 champion (which was hypothetically Arizona in your example) will often not be one of the strongest 4 teams. And that's the #5 seed would have the easy path to the semis. But if they changed it to top 4 overall, regardless of championship status, then that issue goes away.

Yeah, the ACC champion will also often not be in the 4 best teams. I could happen to the P2 also, if the champ has OOC losses.

> One thing they might consider is selection & seeding as separate processes instead of one combined process. In the whole argument about "strongest team" vs. "team with the best season", I actually like teams with the best seasons for selection & then strongest teams for seeding. The problem with a mis-seed is that the most affected team is not the team that is incorrectly seeded, but the opponent of said team.

Agreed. Even this year, Washington seems one of the 2 most deserving but also the least strong team in the playoff--- which is nice if you are Texas.

They are trying to reward something--- once upon a time it was OOC big wins--- which was nice. The new setup doesn't care about those. I remember when winning the conference was its own reward.