It's been eight months and a half since the last cycle's crowning moment of
glory, and it starts all over again. The Road To North America 2026 opens
this week, with two rounds of Conmebol's World Cup Qualifying tournament, to
be played on September 7th, 8th and 12th.

For this cycle Conmebol yet again kept the 18-round long double round robin..
With 6.5 spots to be played for by 10 teams, that means we'll have 90 games
to eliminate just three sides. I figure the rockingness factor won't be too
high this time around. If last time was a walk in the park for Brasil and
Argentina, this time things should be even easier. The days of a cutthroat
qualifying cycle for them are over, I'm afraid. And that should go for most
big teams too, which I guess is only natural for a 48-team field.

But anyway, that's what we have and that's what we'll work with. All 10 teams
have already called up their squads for Rounds 1 and 2, so I thought it could
be interesting to have a look at the players and how they're currently valued,
in order to attempt a Round 1 preview.

That's 305 players who ply their trade in 30 different countries spread over
4 continents. The 10 managers are less spread around, though: 7 are from
Argentina and 1 from each of Brasil, Peru and Spain.

My source for squads data was Wikipedia and the values come from what I saw
on Transfermarkt on September 5th.

In brackets below, the results of these games in the WCQ cycles of
2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round robin ones so far):

Paraguay - Peru (2-2, 1-4, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 5-1, 2-1)

Paraguay
Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-QF-R1-R2-R2
Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 8th-7th-9th-3rd-4th-4th-2nd
Squad size: 27 (6 domestic, 21 foreign-based, 474 caps total)
Squad value: EUR 118,800,000 (average EUR 4,400,000 per player)
Squad average age: 27.3
Manager: Guillermo Barros Schelotto (ARG)

Peru
Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ-R1-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ
Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 5th-5th-7th-10th-9th-8th-5th
Squad size: 26 (11 domestic, 15 foreign-based, 1093 caps total)
Squad value: EUR 38,775,000 (average EUR 1,491,346 per player)
Squad average age: 28.5
Manager: Juan Reynoso (PER)

After the golden generation whose last hurrah was the quarterfinal exit in
World Cup 2010, Paraguay never really got close to qualifying again. Apart
from one faint shot at the playoffs for the 2018 Cup, which they promptly blew
by losing to Venezuela at home in the last round, they never really stood
much of a chance in the last 10 years or so. In Copa America they have been
equally underwhelming, though admittedly it's impressive how much they could
milk out of 3 wins in 24 games, plus half a dozen penalty shootouts since 2011:
one final and one semifinal, both times eliminating Brasil.

I don't think they are any better than that nowadays, but with such a lower
qualifying threshold I can definitely can see them putting up a challenge
this time around. Their main players are defender Gustavo Gomez (also their
captain) and Newcastle's Miguel Almiron.

Peru has been doing what their rivals Chile did in the last few years. They
are milking as much as they can from the generation that brought them back
to the World Cup in 2018, after a 36-year long abscence, and then to a Copa
America final after 44 years. Not a single member of that squad was alive
when they had last qualified to the WC, in 1982, but 14 of them are still in
the present one, which has the highest average age, the highest overall total
of caps of the field and the oldest of the 305 players called up for these
two rounds, 39-year old Paolo Guerrero.

I think they too should be happy that there are so many spots available now..
For this game, to be held in Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este), I have
no idea really. Two unimpressive teams overall, I can smell a 1-1 draw here..
In soph terms: Paraguay 0.35, draw 0.35, Peru 0.30.

Colombia - Venezuela (3-0, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 3-0, 1-0)

Colombia
Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ-R2-QF-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-R1
Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 6th-4th-2nd-7th-6th-6th-3rd
Squad size: 26 (1 domestic, 25 foreign-based, 696 caps total)
Squad value: EUR 274,750,000 (average EUR 10,567,308 per player)
Squad average age: 27.8
Manager: Nestor Lorenzo (ARG)

Venezuela
Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ's all the way
Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 10th-10th-6th-8th-8th-9th-9th
Squad size: 29 (2 domestic, 27 foreign-based players, 918 caps total)
Squad value: EUR 46,200,000 (average EUR 1,593,103 per player)
Squad average age: 28.0
Manager: Fernando Batista (ARG)

Last time around, Colombia just missed out on a playoff spot due to having
embarked on a long winless slump, which they got out of too late. They still
have a core of players from WC'2018, 11 from that squad are present for these
two rounds, plus a few other good players around, out of which stands out
Liverpool's Luis Diaz. With 6.5 spots, they seem well-posed to clinch one of
the automatic places. Though it would be wise if they took in the lessons of
last cycle's failure and avoid turning off their form for such a long period.

I don't expect much out of Venezuela, though. Their core is still the same one
that could do no better than 10th and last in the 2018 and 2022 cycles. In
these cycles they were 12 and 9 points off 7th place. If they can put on some
drastic improvement, things could get interesting in the playoff whereabouts.
And I hope they do, it would be nice to see them finally making it, but so far
I can't see where it'd come from.

This game will be played at Estadio Metropolitano de Barranquilla, where you'd
think the hosts should be able to do the job. But fwiw it is a derby, so it may
turn out to be closer than expected. I say Colombia wins 2-1. In soph-terms:
Colombia 0.75, draw 0.15, Venezuela 0.10.

Argentina - Ecuador (1-0, 0-2, 4-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1)

Argentina
Last WCS (2022 to 1998): Champions-R1-Vice Champions-QF-QF-R1-QF
Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 2nd-3rd-1st-4th-2nd-1st-1st
Squad size: 33 (1 domestic, 32 foreign-based, 977 caps total)
Squad value: EUR 877,200,000 (average EUR 26,581,818 per player)
Squad average age: 26.5
Manager: Lionel Scaloni (ARG)

Ecuador
Last WCs (2022 to 1998): R1-DNQ-R1-DNQ-R2-R1-DNQ
Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 4th-8th-4th-6th-3rd-2nd-6th
Squad size: 23 (8 domestic, 15 foreign-based, 495 caps total)
Squad value: EUR 171,900,000 (average EUR 7,473,913 per player)
Squad average age: 25.3
Manager: Félix Sánchez Bas (ESP)

Argentina called 33 players for their games against Ecuador and Bolivia.
22 of these were in their last World Cup squad, ie, everyone except Marcos
Acuña, Geronimo Rulli, Papu Gomez and Paulo Dybala. They come with morale
up in the sky and are the team to beat, no doubt. I think they'll cruise
through qualification without too much trouble. Scaloni will have plenty
of opportunities to fine tune the team, test new players and phase out old
ones as he sees fit. If they keep overconfidence in check, I think they
should come in strong for both their title defenses in 2024 and 2026.

Ecuador kept 15 players from their WC'2022 squad, in which they fell in the
first round, though hardly disgraced themselves. They do have some decent
players and I think they can be a tough nut to crack. Plus, they have the
altitude of Quito as well. I can see them putting a solid challenge for one
of the automatic qualifying places.

For this match at El Monumental, Argentina are the heavy favorites. Ecuador
won't roll over, and them getting points in Buenos Aires is not unheard of,
but that would an upset. I'd say Argentina 2-0. In soph-terms: Argentina 0.80,
draw 0.10, Ecuador 0.10.

Uruguay - Chile (2-1, 3-0, 4-0, 2-2, 2-1, 2-1, 1-0)

Uruguay
Last WCs (2022 to 1998): R1-QF-R2-SF-DNQ-R1-DNQ
Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 3rd-2nd-5th-5th-5th-5th-7th
Squad size: 25 (all foreign-based, 310 caps total)
Squad value: EUR 352,800,000 (average EUR 14,112,000 per player)
Squad average age: 24.6
Manager: Marcelo Bielsa (ARG)

Chile
Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ-DNQ-R2-R2-DNQ-DNQ-R2
Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 7th-6th-3rd-2nd-7th-10th-4th
Squad size: 45 (22 domestic, 23 foreign-based, 876 caps total)
Squad value: EUR 102,675,000 (average EUR 2,281,667 per player)
Squad average age: 25.1
Manager: Eduardo Berizzo (ARG)

Uruguay could be a rather interesting team to follow over this qualifying cycle.
For his first World Cup qualifying match with La Celeste, Marcelo Bielsa picked a
rejuvenated squad, the oldest player being goalkeeper Sebastian Roche (age 30).
Old stalwarts such as Suarez, Cavani, Gimenez, Caceres and Muslera, almost all
of which on 100+ caps, were left out. But 13 of the 25 squad members have been
in the World Cup squads of 2018 and/or 2022, so it's not a complete overhaul.
Plus, there's the matter of how well will Bielsa's be able to implement his style
and philosophy effectively in the Uruguayan team.

And of course Bielsa's first WCQ game has to be against his old friends Chile.
Though Bielsa never actually won anything with them in his tenure, from 2007 to
2011, there is no doubt he did sow the seeds, and his ideas and influence were
clear in their two very long overdue Copa America winning runs of 2015 and 2016
(Chile has the second oldest FA of South America, from 1895, and is a founder
member of Conmebol among with the top three). Plus the decent WC showing in 2014,
where they were a shot in the bar away from eliminating the hosts in the second
round.

On Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 4:05:00 p.m. UTC-4, Lléo wrote:
> It's been eight months and a half since the last cycle's crowning moment of
> glory, and it starts all over again. The Road To North America 2026 opens
> this week, with two rounds of Conmebol's World Cup Qualifying tournament, to
> be played on September 7th, 8th and 12th.

It seems so early to be starting WC qualifying, we just had a WC what seems just a few months ago. As an aside, if ever the was a time to bring up an argument for Winter WC's now would be a good time, even here on the Iceberg it is a miserable 40C today!!!!
>
> For this cycle Conmebol yet again kept the 18-round long double round robin.
> With 6.5 spots to be played for by 10 teams, that means we'll have 90 games
> to eliminate just three sides. I figure the rockingness factor won't be too
> high this time around. If last time was a walk in the park for Brasil and
> Argentina, this time things should be even easier. The days of a cutthroat
> qualifying cycle for them are over, I'm afraid. And that should go for most
> big teams too, which I guess is only natural for a 48-team field.

Yeah, I like new teams and the diversity of the 48 team WC, but yeah, it seems a lot, also means only countries with dozens of stadiums or multiple countries will be hosting from now on. Unless they decide 48 is too much, but they wont. Anyhow this means Venezuela may actually make a WC in my lifetime.

>
> But anyway, that's what we have and that's what we'll work with. All 10 teams
> have already called up their squads for Rounds 1 and 2, so I thought it could
> be interesting to have a look at the players and how they're currently valued,
> in order to attempt a Round 1 preview.
>
> That's 305 players who ply their trade in 30 different countries spread over
> 4 continents. The 10 managers are less spread around, though: 7 are from
> Argentina and 1 from each of Brasil, Peru and Spain.

Wow! Seven Argie managers, that is kinda impressive.

>
> My source for squads data was Wikipedia and the values come from what I saw
> on Transfermarkt on September 5th.
>
> In brackets below, the results of these games in the WCQ cycles of
> 2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round robin ones so far):
>
>
> Paraguay - Peru (2-2, 1-4, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 5-1, 2-1)
>
> Paraguay
> Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-QF-R1-R2-R2
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 8th-7th-9th-3rd-4th-4th-2nd
> Squad size: 27 (6 domestic, 21 foreign-based, 474 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 118,800,000 (average EUR 4,400,000 per player)
> Squad average age: 27.3
> Manager: Guillermo Barros Schelotto (ARG)
>
> Peru
> Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ-R1-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 5th-5th-7th-10th-9th-8th-5th
> Squad size: 26 (11 domestic, 15 foreign-based, 1093 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 38,775,000 (average EUR 1,491,346 per player)
> Squad average age: 28.5
> Manager: Juan Reynoso (PER)
>
> After the golden generation whose last hurrah was the quarterfinal exit in
> World Cup 2010, Paraguay never really got close to qualifying again. Apart
> from one faint shot at the playoffs for the 2018 Cup, which they promptly blew
> by losing to Venezuela at home in the last round, they never really stood
> much of a chance in the last 10 years or so. In Copa America they have been
> equally underwhelming, though admittedly it's impressive how much they could
> milk out of 3 wins in 24 games, plus half a dozen penalty shootouts since 2011:
> one final and one semifinal, both times eliminating Brasil.
>
> I don't think they are any better than that nowadays, but with such a lower
> qualifying threshold I can definitely can see them putting up a challenge
> this time around. Their main players are defender Gustavo Gomez (also their
> captain) and Newcastle's Miguel Almiron.
>
> Peru has been doing what their rivals Chile did in the last few years. They
> are milking as much as they can from the generation that brought them back
> to the World Cup in 2018, after a 36-year long abscence, and then to a Copa
> America final after 44 years. Not a single member of that squad was alive
> when they had last qualified to the WC, in 1982, but 14 of them are still in
> the present one, which has the highest average age, the highest overall total
> of caps of the field and the oldest of the 305 players called up for these
> two rounds, 39-year old Paolo Guerrero.
>
> I think they too should be happy that there are so many spots available now.
> For this game, to be held in Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este), I have
> no idea really. Two unimpressive teams overall, I can smell a 1-1 draw here.
> In soph terms: Paraguay 0.35, draw 0.35, Peru 0.30.
>
>
> Colombia - Venezuela (3-0, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 3-0, 1-0)
>
> Colombia
> Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ-R2-QF-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-R1
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 6th-4th-2nd-7th-6th-6th-3rd
> Squad size: 26 (1 domestic, 25 foreign-based, 696 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 274,750,000 (average EUR 10,567,308 per player)
> Squad average age: 27.8
> Manager: Nestor Lorenzo (ARG)
>
> Venezuela
> Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ's all the way
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 10th-10th-6th-8th-8th-9th-9th
> Squad size: 29 (2 domestic, 27 foreign-based players, 918 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 46,200,000 (average EUR 1,593,103 per player)
> Squad average age: 28.0
> Manager: Fernando Batista (ARG)
>
> Last time around, Colombia just missed out on a playoff spot due to having
> embarked on a long winless slump, which they got out of too late. They still
> have a core of players from WC'2018, 11 from that squad are present for these
> two rounds, plus a few other good players around, out of which stands out
> Liverpool's Luis Diaz. With 6.5 spots, they seem well-posed to clinch one of
> the automatic places. Though it would be wise if they took in the lessons of
> last cycle's failure and avoid turning off their form for such a long period.
>
> I don't expect much out of Venezuela, though. Their core is still the same one
> that could do no better than 10th and last in the 2018 and 2022 cycles. In
> these cycles they were 12 and 9 points off 7th place. If they can put on some
> drastic improvement, things could get interesting in the playoff whereabouts.
> And I hope they do, it would be nice to see them finally making it, but so far
> I can't see where it'd come from.
>
> This game will be played at Estadio Metropolitano de Barranquilla, where you'd
> think the hosts should be able to do the job. But fwiw it is a derby, so it may
> turn out to be closer than expected. I say Colombia wins 2-1. In soph-terms:
> Colombia 0.75, draw 0.15, Venezuela 0.10.
>
>
> Argentina - Ecuador (1-0, 0-2, 4-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1)
>
> Argentina
> Last WCS (2022 to 1998): Champions-R1-Vice Champions-QF-QF-R1-QF
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 2nd-3rd-1st-4th-2nd-1st-1st
> Squad size: 33 (1 domestic, 32 foreign-based, 977 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 877,200,000 (average EUR 26,581,818 per player)
> Squad average age: 26.5
> Manager: Lionel Scaloni (ARG)
>
> Ecuador
> Last WCs (2022 to 1998): R1-DNQ-R1-DNQ-R2-R1-DNQ
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 4th-8th-4th-6th-3rd-2nd-6th
> Squad size: 23 (8 domestic, 15 foreign-based, 495 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 171,900,000 (average EUR 7,473,913 per player)
> Squad average age: 25.3
> Manager: Félix Sánchez Bas (ESP)
>
> Argentina called 33 players for their games against Ecuador and Bolivia.
> 22 of these were in their last World Cup squad, ie, everyone except Marcos
> Acuña, Geronimo Rulli, Papu Gomez and Paulo Dybala. They come with morale
> up in the sky and are the team to beat, no doubt. I think they'll cruise
> through qualification without too much trouble. Scaloni will have plenty
> of opportunities to fine tune the team, test new players and phase out old
> ones as he sees fit. If they keep overconfidence in check, I think they
> should come in strong for both their title defenses in 2024 and 2026.
>
> Ecuador kept 15 players from their WC'2022 squad, in which they fell in the
> first round, though hardly disgraced themselves. They do have some decent
> players and I think they can be a tough nut to crack. Plus, they have the
> altitude of Quito as well. I can see them putting a solid challenge for one
> of the automatic qualifying places.
>
> For this match at El Monumental, Argentina are the heavy favorites. Ecuador
> won't roll over, and them getting points in Buenos Aires is not unheard of,
> but that would an upset. I'd say Argentina 2-0. In soph-terms: Argentina 0.80,
> draw 0.10, Ecuador 0.10.

Em quarta-feira, 6 de setembro de 2023 às 15:36:57 UTC-3, Binder Dundat escreveu:
> On Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 4:05:00 p.m. UTC-4, Lléo wrote:
> > It's been eight months and a half since the last cycle's crowning moment of
> > glory, and it starts all over again. The Road To North America 2026 opens
> > this week, with two rounds of Conmebol's World Cup Qualifying tournament, to
> > be played on September 7th, 8th and 12th.
>
> It seems so early to be starting WC qualifying, we just had a WC what seems
> just a few months ago. As an aside, if ever the was a time to bring up an
> argument for Winter WC's now would be a good time, even here on the Iceberg
> it is a miserable 40C today!!!!

But would it be feasible to do it in Canada (and even nothern US cities) in
November/December?

> > For this cycle Conmebol yet again kept the 18-round long double round robin.
> > With 6.5 spots to be played for by 10 teams, that means we'll have 90 games
> > to eliminate just three sides. I figure the rockingness factor won't be too
> > high this time around. If last time was a walk in the park for Brasil and
> > Argentina, this time things should be even easier. The days of a cutthroat
> > qualifying cycle for them are over, I'm afraid. And that should go for most
> > big teams too, which I guess is only natural for a 48-team field.
>
> Yeah, I like new teams and the diversity of the 48 team WC, but yeah, it
> seems a lot, also means only countries with dozens of stadiums or multiple
> countries will be hosting from now on.

Yes, "regional" candidacies should become more and more the norm. I'm kinda ok
with this, though. Places that wouldn't have a chance to host the cup might have
a shot at it in association with a bigger partner, as multiple hosting becomes
less and less frowned upon.

> Unless they decide 48 is too much, but they wont.

Yeah, I think that ship has already sailed. They did it for political support,
they aren't going back on that anytime soon. And it had a knock on effect in
the continental tournaments, see how Europe, Asia and Africa now hold their cups
with 24 teams, which IMHO is excessive.

> Anyhow this means Venezuela may actually make a WC in my
> lifetime.

I hope they make it, though I think they're as weak as in the last few years.
Anyway, with 6.5 spots, it's hard to write them off. They only need to hit
a reasonable patch of good form.

> > That's 305 players who ply their trade in 30 different countries spread over
> > 4 continents. The 10 managers are less spread around, though: 7 are from
> > Argentina and 1 from each of Brasil, Peru and Spain.
>
> Wow! Seven Argie managers, that is kinda impressive.

And it could have been nine, had Ricardo Gareca and Gustavo Alfaro stayed
in Peru and Ecuador. In such case, only Brasil would have prevented a
complete sweep.

> > [Argentina vs Ecuador]
>
> But wait, will Miami let Messi play in qualifiers???

Well, they have to, don't they? It's a FIFA matchday, they have to release
him. Plus, in any case, I think Miami's voice is the one that won't weight
much on this issue. I think that for as long as Messi wants to play for
Argentina, and for as long as they'll have him, he'll play.

> They need him so badly to get out of last place and make the play offs!
> I dont even know if it is mathematically possible for Inter Miami to make
> the playoffs?

They have to cover 8 points in 9 matchdays to make the wild card round, if
I'm reading this table correctly. Though possible, it's difficult. A direct
spot in the actual Round One of the MLS Cup is 15 points away atm, so that
might indeed be beyond their reach, for all practical purposes.

> > [SNIP]
> > But today's Chile is not Bielsa's Chile. Although they still count with the likes
> > of Medel, Alexis, Vidal and Aranguiz (548 caps amongst them), they also brought
> > in a lot of young players from the local championship. Indeed, they called up
> > 45 players for these two rounds, no idea what for. At the moment I don't expect
> > much from La Roja. I can see them struggling for the last available spots with
> > Paraguay and Peru.
> >
> > I don't think Chile ever beat Uruguay at Estadio Centenário, plus the hosts seem
> > to have the better team, so I'll call a 2-0 win for La Celeste. In soph-terms,
> > Uruguay 0.85, draw 0.10, Chile 0.05.
>
> Yeah Chile are still relying on the old guys, lots of young players coming
> up, who play in Chile, just not sure if they are good enough? As terrible as
> it sounds, I could see Chile missing out on qualifying this time, but who
> knows, maybe these domestic based kids will be alright?

I don't know any of them, so I have no idea... Who knows, there might be quality
there, even if not for this cycle. I guess we'll know better by the time Copa
America 2024 looms closer?

If Chilean clubs performance in South American competition is anything to go
by, fwiw they won 12 matches against foreign opposition, 8 of which against
Bolivian and Venezuelan clubs. No Chilean club made it out of the first round
in Copa Libertadores, and the ones that did it in Copa Sudamericana fell to the
first foreign opponent they met.

But this may end up not meaning much of anything. Let them play and we'll see
how they do.

> > Brasil - Bolivia (5-0, 5-0, n/a, 0-0, 3-1, 5-0, n/a)
> >
> > Brasil
> > Last WCs (2022 to 1998): QF-QF-SF-QF-QF-Champions-Vice Champions
> > Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 1st-1st-DNP (host)-1st-1st-3rd-DNP (defending champion)
> > Squad size: 23 (4 domestic, 19 foreign-based, 547 caps total)
> > Squad value: EUR 928,000,000 (average EUR 40,347,826 per player)
> > Squad average age: 26.1
> > Manager: Fernando Diniz (BRA)
> >
> > Bolivia
> > Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ
> > Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 9th-9th-8th-9th-10th-7th-8th
> > Squad size: 48 (38 domestic, 10 foreign-based, 486 caps total)
> > Squad value: EUR 21,225,000 (average EUR 442,188 per player)
> > Squad average age: 23.6
> > Manager: Gustavo Costas (ARG)
> >
> > The other continental juggernaut, Brasil is also expected to cruise through
> > this qualifying cycle. The most immediate challenge is coaching: even though
> > CBF knew that Tite wasn't going to stay on regardless of what happened in Qatar,
> > it seems like their only Plan B was to try to lure Carlo Ancelotti as his
> > replacement. They act as if it's all but certain, even if Ancelotti himself has
> > only ever been, at best, diplomatic about it. As far as I know he never gave an
> > unambiguous yes, but rather said things like, "it'd certainly be an honor, but
> > I'm currently under contract with Real Madrid", etc.
> >
> > So, while they await for Ancelotti, they had to bring on a placeholder. At
> > first it was Ramon Menezes, who was in charge in the friendly losses to Morocco
> > and Senegal. Now it is Fluminense manager Fernando Diniz, whose style of play
> > is usually commended, but still has to win a big honour. His first trophy as a
> > coach was this year, as he led Fluminense to win the Rio State League. We'll
> > soon learn how Diniz copes with national team coaching, which is quite a different
> > thing than doing it at club level. And if Ancelotti indeed doesn't come (and I
> > think he probably won't), Copa America 2024 will be his first great test.
>
> [SNIP Bolivian preview and my predictions]
>
> I dont know how you feel about Brazil having a foreign manager and in todays
> Global world, it should not be a shock, but if Germany went with a foreign
> manager, regardless how bad they are ( and they are terrible, they wont get
> out of the first round of the Euros they are hosting next summer) I just
> would not feel right about it.

I actually wouldn't mind it at all, really. Brasil just does not have any
manager that can be said to be of elite stature. If you take Brazilian
football as a whole, IMHO management and refereeing are its major weak
points.

You don't really see Brazilian managers on foreign leagues anywhere. They used
to go to the Arab countries in the past, but nowadays the coaches there are no
longer Brazilian, even with all the money they've been sinking on football
recently. And even on the domestic front, with few exceptions, the main ones
are foreign, mostly Argentinian or Portuguese.

Ancelotti would have been heads and shoulders better than our domestic options,
if he were/is to come, and it shouldn't be hard to think of a few other possible
candidates. Then again, I think he also never managed a national team before
either, so who knows what would actually happen.

On Friday, September 8, 2023 at 12:28:46 PM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Thursday, September 7, 2023 at 3:43:58 PM UTC-4, Lléo wrote:
> > Em quarta-feira, 6 de setembro de 2023 às 15:36:57 UTC-3, Binder Dundat escreveu:
> > > On Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 4:05:00 p.m. UTC-4, Lléo wrote:
> > > > It's been eight months and a half since the last cycle's crowning moment of
> > > > glory, and it starts all over again. The Road To North America 2026 opens
> > > > this week, with two rounds of Conmebol's World Cup Qualifying tournament, to
> > > > be played on September 7th, 8th and 12th.
> Great commentary as usual.
> > > It seems so early to be starting WC qualifying, we just had a WC what seems
> > > just a few months ago. As an aside, if ever the was a time to bring up an
> > > argument for Winter WC's now would be a good time, even here on the Iceberg
> > > it is a miserable 40C today!!!!
> > But would it be feasible to do it in Canada (and even nothern US cities) in
> > November/December?
> Canada and the US made a deliberate effort in the last qualifying cycle to have their home winter matches in the coldest possible venues (both Canada-Mexico and Canada-USA had sub-zero celsius temperatures at kickoff). That was good for enhancing Canada's home field advantage. Not so sure that FIFA honchos and neutral fans would love that, though...
> > > Anyhow this means Venezuela may actually make a WC in my
> > > lifetime.
> > I hope they make it, though I think they're as weak as in the last few years.
> > Anyway, with 6.5 spots, it's hard to write them off. They only need to hit
> > a reasonable patch of good form.
> One of the nice things in a 48-team WC is that it gives marginal teams hope of making it to the big stage.
> > > > [Argentina vs Ecuador]
> > >
> > > But wait, will Miami let Messi play in qualifiers???
> > Well, they have to, don't they? It's a FIFA matchday, they have to release
> > him. Plus, in any case, I think Miami's voice is the one that won't weight
> > much on this issue. I think that for as long as Messi wants to play for
> > Argentina, and for as long as they'll have him, he'll play.
> He played and scored the winner with a perfectly placed free kick in the 78th minute. Just Messi being Messi.
> > > They need him so badly to get out of last place and make the play offs!
> > > I dont even know if it is mathematically possible for Inter Miami to make
> > > the playoffs?
> > They have to cover 8 points in 9 matchdays to make the wild card round, if
> > I'm reading this table correctly. Though possible, it's difficult. A direct
> > spot in the actual Round One of the MLS Cup is 15 points away atm, so that
> > might indeed be beyond their reach, for all practical purposes.
> It's really remarkable though how Messi (+ Busquests and Jordi Alba) has apparently made everyone else on the Miami roster better.
> >
> > Ancelotti would have been heads and shoulders better than our domestic options,
> > if he were/is to come, and it shouldn't be hard to think of a few other possible
> > candidates. Then again, I think he also never managed a national team before
> > either, so who knows what would actually happen.
> >
> The fact that he has never managed an NT should be a big question mark. I guess he may have been expected to take the Italy job, but Mancini's sudden resignation (or rather, the poaching of Mancini by the Saudi FA) messed up those plans.

Why is the internet so unreliable? My predictions didn't show up. If I remember correctly, they were:

Paraguay 2 Peru 2
Colombia 2 Venezuela 0
Argentina 2 Ecuador 0
Uruguay 1 Chile 0
Brazil 5 Bolivia 0

On 2023-09-07 13:43, Lléo wrote:
> Em quarta-feira, 6 de setembro de 2023 às 15:36:57 UTC-3, Binder Dundat escreveu:
>> On Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 4:05:00 p.m. UTC-4, Lléo wrote:
>>> It's been eight months and a half since the last cycle's crowning moment of
>>> glory, and it starts all over again. The Road To North America 2026 opens
>>> this week, with two rounds of Conmebol's World Cup Qualifying tournament, to
>>> be played on September 7th, 8th and 12th.
>>
>> It seems so early to be starting WC qualifying, we just had a WC what seems
>> just a few months ago. As an aside, if ever the was a time to bring up an
>> argument for Winter WC's now would be a good time, even here on the Iceberg
>> it is a miserable 40C today!!!!
>
>
> But would it be feasible to do it in Canada (and even nothern US cities) in
> November/December?

nope. Vancouver or Victoria maybe but Victoria does not have an adequate
facility. One could argue that Vancouver does not either, but I suppose
they could put in a decent grass field by then

Toronto/Montreal would be very risky, and Edmonton foolhardy.

>
>
>>> For this cycle Conmebol yet again kept the 18-round long double round robin.
>>> With 6.5 spots to be played for by 10 teams, that means we'll have 90 games
>>> to eliminate just three sides. I figure the rockingness factor won't be too
>>> high this time around. If last time was a walk in the park for Brasil and
>>> Argentina, this time things should be even easier. The days of a cutthroat
>>> qualifying cycle for them are over, I'm afraid. And that should go for most
>>> big teams too, which I guess is only natural for a 48-team field.
>>
>> Yeah, I like new teams and the diversity of the 48 team WC, but yeah, it
>> seems a lot, also means only countries with dozens of stadiums or multiple
>> countries will be hosting from now on.

How many facilities are needed and what is the minimum capacity ? Would
an Australia/New Zealand cohosting arrangement work ?

Spain should be able to host, I would imagine. England and Germany for
sure. Turkey perhaps though maybe that places far too many games in
the Istanbul area (4 Stadiums over 40,000 in one city !)

On Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 12:43:47 AM UTC+1, MH wrote:
> On 2023-09-07 13:43, Lléo wrote:
> > Em quarta-feira, 6 de setembro de 2023 às 15:36:57 UTC-3, Binder Dundat escreveu:
> >> On Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 4:05:00 p.m. UTC-4, Lléo wrote:
> >>> It's been eight months and a half since the last cycle's crowning moment of
> >>> glory, and it starts all over again. The Road To North America 2026 opens
> >>> this week, with two rounds of Conmebol's World Cup Qualifying tournament, to
> >>> be played on September 7th, 8th and 12th.
> >>
> >> It seems so early to be starting WC qualifying, we just had a WC what seems
> >> just a few months ago. As an aside, if ever the was a time to bring up an
> >> argument for Winter WC's now would be a good time, even here on the Iceberg
> >> it is a miserable 40C today!!!!
> >
> >
> > But would it be feasible to do it in Canada (and even nothern US cities) in
> > November/December?
> nope. Vancouver or Victoria maybe but Victoria does not have an adequate
> facility. One could argue that Vancouver does not either, but I suppose
> they could put in a decent grass field by then
>
> Toronto/Montreal would be very risky, and Edmonton foolhardy.
> >
> >
> >>> For this cycle Conmebol yet again kept the 18-round long double round robin.
> >>> With 6.5 spots to be played for by 10 teams, that means we'll have 90 games
> >>> to eliminate just three sides. I figure the rockingness factor won't be too
> >>> high this time around. If last time was a walk in the park for Brasil and
> >>> Argentina, this time things should be even easier. The days of a cutthroat
> >>> qualifying cycle for them are over, I'm afraid. And that should go for most
> >>> big teams too, which I guess is only natural for a 48-team field.
> >>
> >> Yeah, I like new teams and the diversity of the 48 team WC, but yeah, it
> >> seems a lot, also means only countries with dozens of stadiums or multiple
> >> countries will be hosting from now on.
> How many facilities are needed and what is the minimum capacity ?

FIFA usually insists on a minimum capacity of 40000 for group stage matches (although in 2018 Kaliningrad and Yekaterinburg were allowed to host with 35000). Temporary expansions are sometimes used to meet this. This increases as the tournament progresses, quarter final venues seem to need to be about 50000 - 60000 and the stadium for the final needs a capacity of about 80000.

As for how many, going by United 2026 (first WC in the 48 team era) it looks like 16 are required.

>
> Spain should be able to host, I would imagine.

Probably, but a bit of help from Portugal and Morocco makes for an impressive looking 2030 World Cup bid.

> England and Germany for
> sure.

It's a scandal that England hasn't hosted in the time that Mexico and USA will have both hosted twice.

> Turkey perhaps though maybe that places far too many games in
> the Istanbul area (4 Stadiums over 40,000 in one city !)

Sadly Turkey doesn't have enough stadiums that would meet the minimum capacity requirements. Looks like only 7 stadiums currently meet the grade and four of those only just (Besiktas, Bursa, Konya, Trabzon). Fenerbahce hold about 47000, Galatasaray 52000 and the Ataturk Olympic Stadium 74000. As you suggest, the biggest three stadia are all in the Istanbul area. The Izmir Ataturk Stadium would at one point have made a fine World Cup stadium, in the days before seating it held the World record for the highest attendance at a second divison match, where Karsiyaka and Goztepe played out a 0-0 draw in front of 80000 fans on 16th May 1981. And I'm just going to get this in there - it has a running track for that authentic retro World Cup look! It's seated capacity was 52000 so would have been fine for matches up to about the quarter finals but it took a hit in the Earthquake a few years ago and requires repair / reconstruction (not quite sure how far they're along with that). So once renovated that's another stadium that meets the grade, with the bonus of it not being in the Istanbul area but instead the Aegean Coast.

Turkey has actually seen a number of clubs build new stadiums in recent years but a lot of the capacities tend to be about 20000 - 30000 as outside of the "Big Three", Trabzon and Bursa the clubs don't have enough of a fan base to fill a large stadium (the Izmir sides Goztepe and Karsiyaka would attract bigger crowds if they regularly played in the top flight). A Turkish World Cup bid would require a number of new stadia to be built or current ones to be expanded with the very real risk of "White Elephant" developments. What Turkey is better placed to do is be part of a joint bid with other countries in the area (Greece or various middle Eastern countries?). The joint bid with Italy to host Euro 2032 is more Turkey's level at the moment.

RM

On Thursday, September 7, 2023 at 3:43:58 PM UTC-4, Lléo wrote:
> Em quarta-feira, 6 de setembro de 2023 às 15:36:57 UTC-3, Binder Dundat escreveu:
> > On Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 4:05:00 p.m. UTC-4, Lléo wrote:
> > > It's been eight months and a half since the last cycle's crowning moment of
> > > glory, and it starts all over again. The Road To North America 2026 opens
> > > this week, with two rounds of Conmebol's World Cup Qualifying tournament, to
> > > be played on September 7th, 8th and 12th.

Great commentary as usual.

> > It seems so early to be starting WC qualifying, we just had a WC what seems
> > just a few months ago. As an aside, if ever the was a time to bring up an
> > argument for Winter WC's now would be a good time, even here on the Iceberg
> > it is a miserable 40C today!!!!
> But would it be feasible to do it in Canada (and even nothern US cities) in
> November/December?

Canada and the US made a deliberate effort in the last qualifying cycle to have their home winter matches in the coldest possible venues (both Canada-Mexico and Canada-USA had sub-zero celsius temperatures at kickoff). That was good for enhancing Canada's home field advantage. Not so sure that FIFA honchos and neutral fans would love that, though...

> > Anyhow this means Venezuela may actually make a WC in my
> > lifetime.
> I hope they make it, though I think they're as weak as in the last few years.
> Anyway, with 6.5 spots, it's hard to write them off. They only need to hit
> a reasonable patch of good form.

One of the nice things in a 48-team WC is that it gives marginal teams hope of making it to the big stage.

> > > [Argentina vs Ecuador]
> >
> > But wait, will Miami let Messi play in qualifiers???
> Well, they have to, don't they? It's a FIFA matchday, they have to release
> him. Plus, in any case, I think Miami's voice is the one that won't weight
> much on this issue. I think that for as long as Messi wants to play for
> Argentina, and for as long as they'll have him, he'll play.

He played and scored the winner with a perfectly placed free kick in the 78th minute. Just Messi being Messi.

> > They need him so badly to get out of last place and make the play offs!
> > I dont even know if it is mathematically possible for Inter Miami to make
> > the playoffs?
> They have to cover 8 points in 9 matchdays to make the wild card round, if
> I'm reading this table correctly. Though possible, it's difficult. A direct
> spot in the actual Round One of the MLS Cup is 15 points away atm, so that
> might indeed be beyond their reach, for all practical purposes.

It's really remarkable though how Messi (+ Busquests and Jordi Alba) has apparently made everyone else on the Miami roster better.

>
> Ancelotti would have been heads and shoulders better than our domestic options,
> if he were/is to come, and it shouldn't be hard to think of a few other possible
> candidates. Then again, I think he also never managed a national team before
> either, so who knows what would actually happen.
>

The fact that he has never managed an NT should be a big question mark. I guess he may have been expected to take the Italy job, but Mancini's sudden resignation (or rather, the poaching of Mancini by the Saudi FA) messed up those plans.

On Friday, September 8, 2023 at 1:01:58 PM UTC+1, Mark wrote:

> Why is the internet so unreliable? My predictions didn't show up. If I remember correctly, they were:
>
> Paraguay 2 Peru 2
Lleo 90 points
Mark 80 points

> Colombia 2 Venezuela 0
Lleo 90
Mark 85

> Argentina 2 Ecuador 0
Lleo 85
Mark 85

> Uruguay 1 Chile 0
Lleo 90
Mark60

> Brazil 5 Bolivia 0
Lleo 60
Mark 85

Totals:
Lleo 415
Mark 395

We both did quite well there.