On Tuesday, September 5, 2023 at 4:05:00 p.m. UTC-4, Lléo wrote:
> It's been eight months and a half since the last cycle's crowning moment of
> glory, and it starts all over again. The Road To North America 2026 opens
> this week, with two rounds of Conmebol's World Cup Qualifying tournament, to
> be played on September 7th, 8th and 12th.

It seems so early to be starting WC qualifying, we just had a WC what seems just a few months ago. As an aside, if ever the was a time to bring up an argument for Winter WC's now would be a good time, even here on the Iceberg it is a miserable 40C today!!!!
>
> For this cycle Conmebol yet again kept the 18-round long double round robin.
> With 6.5 spots to be played for by 10 teams, that means we'll have 90 games
> to eliminate just three sides. I figure the rockingness factor won't be too
> high this time around. If last time was a walk in the park for Brasil and
> Argentina, this time things should be even easier. The days of a cutthroat
> qualifying cycle for them are over, I'm afraid. And that should go for most
> big teams too, which I guess is only natural for a 48-team field.

Yeah, I like new teams and the diversity of the 48 team WC, but yeah, it seems a lot, also means only countries with dozens of stadiums or multiple countries will be hosting from now on. Unless they decide 48 is too much, but they wont. Anyhow this means Venezuela may actually make a WC in my lifetime.

>
> But anyway, that's what we have and that's what we'll work with. All 10 teams
> have already called up their squads for Rounds 1 and 2, so I thought it could
> be interesting to have a look at the players and how they're currently valued,
> in order to attempt a Round 1 preview.
>
> That's 305 players who ply their trade in 30 different countries spread over
> 4 continents. The 10 managers are less spread around, though: 7 are from
> Argentina and 1 from each of Brasil, Peru and Spain.

Wow! Seven Argie managers, that is kinda impressive.

>
> My source for squads data was Wikipedia and the values come from what I saw
> on Transfermarkt on September 5th.
>
> In brackets below, the results of these games in the WCQ cycles of
> 2022/2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round robin ones so far):
>
>
> Paraguay - Peru (2-2, 1-4, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 5-1, 2-1)
>
> Paraguay
> Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-QF-R1-R2-R2
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 8th-7th-9th-3rd-4th-4th-2nd
> Squad size: 27 (6 domestic, 21 foreign-based, 474 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 118,800,000 (average EUR 4,400,000 per player)
> Squad average age: 27.3
> Manager: Guillermo Barros Schelotto (ARG)
>
> Peru
> Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ-R1-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 5th-5th-7th-10th-9th-8th-5th
> Squad size: 26 (11 domestic, 15 foreign-based, 1093 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 38,775,000 (average EUR 1,491,346 per player)
> Squad average age: 28.5
> Manager: Juan Reynoso (PER)
>
> After the golden generation whose last hurrah was the quarterfinal exit in
> World Cup 2010, Paraguay never really got close to qualifying again. Apart
> from one faint shot at the playoffs for the 2018 Cup, which they promptly blew
> by losing to Venezuela at home in the last round, they never really stood
> much of a chance in the last 10 years or so. In Copa America they have been
> equally underwhelming, though admittedly it's impressive how much they could
> milk out of 3 wins in 24 games, plus half a dozen penalty shootouts since 2011:
> one final and one semifinal, both times eliminating Brasil.
>
> I don't think they are any better than that nowadays, but with such a lower
> qualifying threshold I can definitely can see them putting up a challenge
> this time around. Their main players are defender Gustavo Gomez (also their
> captain) and Newcastle's Miguel Almiron.
>
> Peru has been doing what their rivals Chile did in the last few years. They
> are milking as much as they can from the generation that brought them back
> to the World Cup in 2018, after a 36-year long abscence, and then to a Copa
> America final after 44 years. Not a single member of that squad was alive
> when they had last qualified to the WC, in 1982, but 14 of them are still in
> the present one, which has the highest average age, the highest overall total
> of caps of the field and the oldest of the 305 players called up for these
> two rounds, 39-year old Paolo Guerrero.
>
> I think they too should be happy that there are so many spots available now.
> For this game, to be held in Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este), I have
> no idea really. Two unimpressive teams overall, I can smell a 1-1 draw here.
> In soph terms: Paraguay 0.35, draw 0.35, Peru 0.30.
>
>
> Colombia - Venezuela (3-0, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 3-0, 1-0)
>
> Colombia
> Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ-R2-QF-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-R1
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 6th-4th-2nd-7th-6th-6th-3rd
> Squad size: 26 (1 domestic, 25 foreign-based, 696 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 274,750,000 (average EUR 10,567,308 per player)
> Squad average age: 27.8
> Manager: Nestor Lorenzo (ARG)
>
> Venezuela
> Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ's all the way
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 10th-10th-6th-8th-8th-9th-9th
> Squad size: 29 (2 domestic, 27 foreign-based players, 918 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 46,200,000 (average EUR 1,593,103 per player)
> Squad average age: 28.0
> Manager: Fernando Batista (ARG)
>
> Last time around, Colombia just missed out on a playoff spot due to having
> embarked on a long winless slump, which they got out of too late. They still
> have a core of players from WC'2018, 11 from that squad are present for these
> two rounds, plus a few other good players around, out of which stands out
> Liverpool's Luis Diaz. With 6.5 spots, they seem well-posed to clinch one of
> the automatic places. Though it would be wise if they took in the lessons of
> last cycle's failure and avoid turning off their form for such a long period.
>
> I don't expect much out of Venezuela, though. Their core is still the same one
> that could do no better than 10th and last in the 2018 and 2022 cycles. In
> these cycles they were 12 and 9 points off 7th place. If they can put on some
> drastic improvement, things could get interesting in the playoff whereabouts.
> And I hope they do, it would be nice to see them finally making it, but so far
> I can't see where it'd come from.
>
> This game will be played at Estadio Metropolitano de Barranquilla, where you'd
> think the hosts should be able to do the job. But fwiw it is a derby, so it may
> turn out to be closer than expected. I say Colombia wins 2-1. In soph-terms:
> Colombia 0.75, draw 0.15, Venezuela 0.10.
>
>
> Argentina - Ecuador (1-0, 0-2, 4-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1)
>
> Argentina
> Last WCS (2022 to 1998): Champions-R1-Vice Champions-QF-QF-R1-QF
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 2nd-3rd-1st-4th-2nd-1st-1st
> Squad size: 33 (1 domestic, 32 foreign-based, 977 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 877,200,000 (average EUR 26,581,818 per player)
> Squad average age: 26.5
> Manager: Lionel Scaloni (ARG)
>
> Ecuador
> Last WCs (2022 to 1998): R1-DNQ-R1-DNQ-R2-R1-DNQ
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 4th-8th-4th-6th-3rd-2nd-6th
> Squad size: 23 (8 domestic, 15 foreign-based, 495 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 171,900,000 (average EUR 7,473,913 per player)
> Squad average age: 25.3
> Manager: Félix Sánchez Bas (ESP)
>
> Argentina called 33 players for their games against Ecuador and Bolivia.
> 22 of these were in their last World Cup squad, ie, everyone except Marcos
> Acuña, Geronimo Rulli, Papu Gomez and Paulo Dybala. They come with morale
> up in the sky and are the team to beat, no doubt. I think they'll cruise
> through qualification without too much trouble. Scaloni will have plenty
> of opportunities to fine tune the team, test new players and phase out old
> ones as he sees fit. If they keep overconfidence in check, I think they
> should come in strong for both their title defenses in 2024 and 2026.
>
> Ecuador kept 15 players from their WC'2022 squad, in which they fell in the
> first round, though hardly disgraced themselves. They do have some decent
> players and I think they can be a tough nut to crack. Plus, they have the
> altitude of Quito as well. I can see them putting a solid challenge for one
> of the automatic qualifying places.
>
> For this match at El Monumental, Argentina are the heavy favorites. Ecuador
> won't roll over, and them getting points in Buenos Aires is not unheard of,
> but that would an upset. I'd say Argentina 2-0. In soph-terms: Argentina 0.80,
> draw 0.10, Ecuador 0.10.

But wait, will Miami let Messi play in qualifiers??? They need him so badly to get out of last place and make the play offs! I dont even know if it is mathematically possible for Inter Miami to make the playoffs?

>
>
> Uruguay - Chile (2-1, 3-0, 4-0, 2-2, 2-1, 2-1, 1-0)
>
> Uruguay
> Last WCs (2022 to 1998): R1-QF-R2-SF-DNQ-R1-DNQ
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 3rd-2nd-5th-5th-5th-5th-7th
> Squad size: 25 (all foreign-based, 310 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 352,800,000 (average EUR 14,112,000 per player)
> Squad average age: 24.6
> Manager: Marcelo Bielsa (ARG)
>
> Chile
> Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ-DNQ-R2-R2-DNQ-DNQ-R2
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 7th-6th-3rd-2nd-7th-10th-4th
> Squad size: 45 (22 domestic, 23 foreign-based, 876 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 102,675,000 (average EUR 2,281,667 per player)
> Squad average age: 25.1
> Manager: Eduardo Berizzo (ARG)
>
> Uruguay could be a rather interesting team to follow over this qualifying cycle.
> For his first World Cup qualifying match with La Celeste, Marcelo Bielsa picked a
> rejuvenated squad, the oldest player being goalkeeper Sebastian Roche (age 30).
> Old stalwarts such as Suarez, Cavani, Gimenez, Caceres and Muslera, almost all
> of which on 100+ caps, were left out. But 13 of the 25 squad members have been
> in the World Cup squads of 2018 and/or 2022, so it's not a complete overhaul.
> Plus, there's the matter of how well will Bielsa's be able to implement his style
> and philosophy effectively in the Uruguayan team.
>
> And of course Bielsa's first WCQ game has to be against his old friends Chile.
> Though Bielsa never actually won anything with them in his tenure, from 2007 to
> 2011, there is no doubt he did sow the seeds, and his ideas and influence were
> clear in their two very long overdue Copa America winning runs of 2015 and 2016
> (Chile has the second oldest FA of South America, from 1895, and is a founder
> member of Conmebol among with the top three). Plus the decent WC showing in 2014,
> where they were a shot in the bar away from eliminating the hosts in the second
> round.
>
> But today's Chile is not Bielsa's Chile. Although they still count with the likes
> of Medel, Alexis, Vidal and Aranguiz (548 caps amongst them), they also brought
> in a lot of young players from the local championship. Indeed, they called up
> 45 players for these two rounds, no idea what for. At the moment I don't expect
> much from La Roja. I can see them struggling for the last available spots with
> Paraguay and Peru.
>
> I don't think Chile ever beat Uruguay at Estadio Centenário, plus the hosts seem
> to have the better team, so I'll call a 2-0 win for La Celeste. In soph-terms,
> Uruguay 0.85, draw 0.10, Chile 0.05.

Yeah Chile are still relying on the old guys, lots of young players coming up, who play in Chile, just not sure if they are good enough? As terrible as it sounds, I could see Chile missing out on qualifying this time, but who knows, maybe these domestic based kids will be alright?

>
>
> Brasil - Bolivia (5-0, 5-0, n/a, 0-0, 3-1, 5-0, n/a)
>
> Brasil
> Last WCs (2022 to 1998): QF-QF-SF-QF-QF-Champions-Vice Champions
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 1st-1st-DNP (host)-1st-1st-3rd-DNP (defending champion)
> Squad size: 23 (4 domestic, 19 foreign-based, 547 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 928,000,000 (average EUR 40,347,826 per player)
> Squad average age: 26.1
> Manager: Fernando Diniz (BRA)
>
> Bolivia
> Last WCs (2022 to 1998): DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ-DNQ
> Last WCQs (2022 to 1998): 9th-9th-8th-9th-10th-7th-8th
> Squad size: 48 (38 domestic, 10 foreign-based, 486 caps total)
> Squad value: EUR 21,225,000 (average EUR 442,188 per player)
> Squad average age: 23.6
> Manager: Gustavo Costas (ARG)
>
> The other continental juggernaut, Brasil is also expected to cruise through
> this qualifying cycle. The most immediate challenge is coaching: even though
> CBF knew that Tite wasn't going to stay on regardless of what happened in Qatar,
> it seems like their only Plan B was to try to lure Carlo Ancelotti as his
> replacement. They act as if it's all but certain, even if Ancelotti himself has
> only ever been, at best, diplomatic about it. As far as I know he never gave an
> unambiguous yes, but rather said things like, "it'd certainly be an honor, but
> I'm currently under contract with Real Madrid", etc.
>
> So, while they await for Ancelotti, they had to bring on a placeholder. At
> first it was Ramon Menezes, who was in charge in the friendly losses to Morocco
> and Senegal. Now it is Fluminense manager Fernando Diniz, whose style of play
> is usually commended, but still has to win a big honour. His first trophy as a
> coach was this year, as he led Fluminense to win the Rio State League. We'll
> soon learn how Diniz copes with national team coaching, which is quite a different
> thing than doing it at club level. And if Ancelotti indeed doesn't come (and I
> think he probably won't), Copa America 2024 will be his first great test.
>
> (btw, although Neymar is injured, he was called up so I considered his numbers
> when calculating the above ones)
>
> Bolivia is the polar opposite of the big sides, which they'll face in the opening
> rounds. I couldn't figure out why they called up a staggering 48 players for
> their matches against Brasil and Argentina. At first I thought they were going
> to keep a team in La Paz and another would travel, but somewhere I saw a mention
> that this does include an U-23 friendly in there somewhere, which helps to explain
> the squad's low average age, but didn't even find out the opponent. Oh well.
>
> It's a little hard to write off anyone when the playoff line is as low as 7th,
> but I still don't know if it's wise to expect Bolivia to put up a challenge. Last
> time they finished 4 points from 7th, which was good for their standards. They're
> still the weakest team around, I think we'll have a repeat of their old pattern of
> getting all their points at home and being useless away.
>
> All due respect to La Verde, Brasil opens with the easiest fixture possible at
> Estadio Mangueirão, in Belém. I'll make it a 3-0 (in soph-terms: Brasil 1, draw 0,
> Bolivia 0).

I dont know how you feel about Brazil having a foreign manager and in todays Global world, it should not be a shock, but if Germany went with a foreign manager, regardless how bad they are ( and they are terrible, they wont get out of the first round of the Euros they are hosting next summer) I just would not feel right about it.

>
>
> So, there it is. Overall, at the moment I see the teams being split roughly in four
> tiers:
>
> Tier 1 -> should qualify on autopilot. Brasil and Argentina surely, maybe Uruguay
> too;
>
> Tier 2 -> without the three above, there are 3.5 spots for seven teams. I think
> Colombia and Ecuador look a little better than the rest and should ensure two of
> the automatic spots for themselves. Maybe Uruguay actually belongs here?;
>
> Tier 3 -> that leaves 1.5 spots for the remaining five teams. I can see Chile, Peru
> and Paraguay as frontrunning candidates for these; and
>
> Tier 4 -> Bolivia and Venezuela, really. They don't inspire any confidence. But if
> they raise their game, the qualifying threshold is right there, so who knows...
>
>
> Best regards,
>
> Lléo